Passing Stranger

Know what you own, and know why you own it. --Peter Lynch

I'm an investor & sarcastic bastard

[Passing Stranger @PassedStranger]

@ShortSeller Just model yourself after @cantonmeow and post random weird things to keep engagement up

There's an "edutainment" aspect to most things

[Passing Stranger @PassedStranger]

@cantonmeow That pic barely looks like @cz_binance at all

[Passing Stranger @PassedStranger]

@matthughes13 20 seconds of my life I'll never get back...

Had to watch it twice bcz 1st time was sound off

[Passing Stranger @PassedStranger]

@cantonmeow That chop at the end there is simply vicious

[Passing Stranger @PassedStranger]

@btc @dnfqwg181666398 @btc
[email protected]

[Passing Stranger @PassedStranger]

@fiatarchive This slimeball will say anything for approval, profit, acceptance, etc. Should be ignored like the inner workings of a toilet

[Passing Stranger @PassedStranger]

@lourenco_vs Very nice 👍

[Passing Stranger @PassedStranger]

@ChartingGuy Only 23+ hours to go.

All good 👍

[Cryptic Trades @CrypticTrades_]

It's Time for an In-Depth Update on $BTC

First things first: I was wrong.

A few days ago, I shared a bearish scenario for the first time in months. It was the invalidation level to my bullish thesis, and unfortunately, that scenario is now playing out.

As I explained at the time, losing the high-timeframe support range would open the door for a deeper correction toward the $66K bottoming area and invalidate the bullish structure I had been tracking.

That is exactly what happened.

From an Elliott Wave perspective, this also invalidates the idea that the recent pullback was simply a Wave 2 correction within a larger 1-5 impulsive move higher. Instead, it suggests that the broader high-timeframe downtrend remains in play.

Moving forward in the next couple of weeks, I would not be surprised to see a final deviation below the $60K lows to fully flush remaining longs before any meaningful relief rally plays out.

Does This Mean It's Time to Turn Fully Bearish?

Not really.

Funding rates have moved deeply negative, shorts are heavily outweighing longs, and sentiment has reached extreme fear. Historically, those conditions often precede relief rallies.

But at the same time, this is not the moment to become aggressively bullish either.

For me, the key level was and remains $74K, as I've been covering for weeks.

Until Bitcoin can reclaim and hold above that high-timeframe support range, which aligns with last year's bottoming formation, I believe the most likely outcome remains either further consolidation or a continuation of the broader downtrend in a more bearish setting.

What Happens Next?

Many of you have been asking whether crypto is dead.

Honestly, it feels that way.

Engagement is low, the sentiment is terrible, the social media interest has collapsed, and bearishness is everywhere.

Ironically, that is exactly why I continue to remain bullish on the high timeframes.

What we are witnessing right now is a historic divergence between the crypto and traditional markets.

Equities continue making new highs, AI remains the main narrative, and capital is flowing aggressively toward whatever is going up and making money for investors TODAY.

Bitcoin is the opposite.

It is ignored and stuck inside a high-timeframe bottoming formation.

In my view, that is why it deserves attention.

At some point, once the macro and geopolitical backdrop becomes more stable and the AI narrative softens, I expect liquidity to begin rotating toward assets that have lagged behind.

When that happens, I believe crypto has the potential to become one of the main catch-up assets.

Instead of seeing equities rise while crypto struggles, we would see the opposite: crypto outperforming while traditional markets begin cooling off.

That rotation may take time however, and until it happens, patience is the most important.

My Current Approach

For now, I am focusing on the parts of my portfolio that continue to make money.

Semiconductors, AI Infrastructure stocks, HPC miners, and cyclicals which have significantly outperformed and helped offset weakness on the crypto side of my portfolio.

This is exactly why I have emphasized diversification for years.

In crypto, I remain partially hedged, just as I have been since the breakdown below $74K. That level was always my flip point, and until it is reclaimed, the most likely outcome remains further consolidation of a continuation of the downtrend in a more bearish setting.

Over the coming weeks, I plan to gradually reduce some equity exposure as they're starting to become a bit overextended and rotate part of that capital back into Bitcoin in preparation for the potential liquidity rotation I discussed above.

Until then, my focus remains on managing the entire portfolio, not just one part of it.

At the end of the day, the goal is not to be right on every call.

The goal is to be profitable.

I'll share more updates soon, including several on-chain metrics and structural signals I'm currently tracking and how they may impact the broader crypto market moving forward.

Stay tuned and stay safe guys!

[Passing Stranger @PassedStranger]

@cantonmeow I bought at 69,420. Just couldn't resist

Waiting for 42,069

[Passing Stranger @PassedStranger]

@onthemove555 It's pretty horrible. I can't watch all of it

RIP Henry

[Ruslan Khairullin @Rus_Khairullin]

Michael Saylor sold 32 Bitcoin.

Out of 843,706. That’s 0.0038% of the stack. Roughly the equivalent of you selling one slice of bread out of your kitchen🤣

He literally told everyone he’d do this on the Q1 earnings call. Said it word for word. “We’ll sell a small amount to fund the dividend just to inoculate the market.” It was planned, disclosed, scheduled, executed. The 8-K filing is public.

And the headline reads “Strategy Sold Bitcoin” like the man sold his entire treasury.

This is what most of crypto twitter has become. A pre-announced corporate housekeeping move turned into a screaming tweets because panic prints engagement. The same guys running this will tell you in 3 months Saylor is bullish again when he buys his next 5,000 BTC.

You’re behind because you spent the day reading content created to make you sell and feel fear.

@saylor 🤝

[Passing Stranger @PassedStranger]

@HeidingOut @NoobTheta Grab is pretty big in Thailand, too, but I can't get very excited about a business service that's so easy to duplicate, unless Grab can buy out all the other delivery businesses or set themselves above the herd somehow

[Passing Stranger @PassedStranger]

@Bobiliciousing @matthughes13 I DCA Bitcoin so I don't really worry about timing an exact bottom. It's a lifetime hold 👍

[Passing Stranger @PassedStranger]

@greystrength63 @Atlas_Leather @sam_gzstrength @wolfstrength @SS_strength That brace in the front of the toes would drive me nuts. You don't find it interferes with your positioning under the bar?

Nice squats man. I'm working back up after a long hiatus (firstborn son). What program are you running?

[Passing Stranger @PassedStranger]

@MarketMaestro1 Yeah. Either this will follow previous patterns and make fools of everyone who believed in it, or it will make fools of the disbelievers

If not up, then down

If not Bitcoin mining, then AI infrastructure

If not AI, then a private jet collection

[Passing Stranger @PassedStranger]

@greg16676935420 Quite clever, greg

This is why I follow you. It's these one-a-month bangers that make up for all the other days

[Passing Stranger @PassedStranger]

@cantonmeow You wrote that like summarizing the plot of a heroic novel

"about to fight"
"monster resistance"

"finding support back at" might be better revised to "slingshotting off of," but ok

[Passing Stranger @PassedStranger]

@chad_ventures This just screams Wyckoff Accumulation