126 years of market history tell a simple story...
Stocks and earnings move together with a 98% correlation.
The short run is all about noise.
The long run is all about profits.
Speculators chase noise. Investors follow profits.
Bitcoin (-27%) and Gold (-3%) are the two worst performing major assets so far in 2026. Something we haven't seen before in any calendar year. $GLD bitcoin:native
Video: https://t.co/KvIKNbxfUH
SpaceX gained 19.2% today.
Looking at more than 9k IPOs since 1980, the average Day 1 IPO gain was 18.9%.
History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
The S&P 500 recently was up more than 19% in two months.
You ready for this one? That has only happened seven other times and stocks were never lower 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, or a year later.
In fact, up more than 40% on average a year later. My oh my.
S&P 500 earnings are now expected to increase by 24% this year. We've never seen earnings growth this high outside of post-recessionary rebounds. An unprecedented boom fueled by massive EPS gains in big tech.
Video: https://t.co/BE95GpQv5f
The S&P 500 soared 16.1% in April and May, the second best ever (only 2020 was better).
Here's the thing, after previous big gains (>10%), June has never been lower and the rest of the year added 18.6% on average.
The 19% gain in the S&P 500 over the last 9 weeks is the 16th biggest 9-week gain for the index since 1950.
What tends to follow the biggest short-term advances?
More upside and above-average returns.
Strength begets strength.
Video: https://t.co/BE95GpQv5f
Want to make a bear mad?
Tell them that after April & May gain more than 10% (like 2026 will), the rest of the year has gained double digits each time and been up an average of nearly 19% the rest of the year.
The Fed expanded the money supply by nearly $9 trillion under Powell.
Inflation has averaged >4% per year over the past 6 years.
Powell's explanation? It was nearly all due to rolling “supply shocks" over which the Fed has no control.
The truth: this inflation was made in Washington as it always is - from too much government borrowing/spending and too much government creation of money.
We just barely missed the best 8-week rally in history.
This one is up 17.3% and there was a 17.4% one in 1997. Stocks gained another 22% a year later back then by the way.
In fact, never lower a year later after an 8-week win streak that gained at least 12%.
@Microsoft@Office@Outlook I’ve been calling your reps for 2 hours. Can’t get anyone to help. All automated, no help. Got one person, sounded like they were in another country, and call dropped. Terrible service. It’s no wonder the stock hasn’t done well. Please change my mind.