strategic bitcoin reserve act targets 1m BTC. there are 2.709m BTC on exchanges right now, a 7-year low. the US government is proposing to lock up 37% of current exchange-available supply permanently. bill text drops july 4, procedural vote july 17. even if they only acquire through seizures and stop auctioning confiscated coins, every other G20 nation now faces a race to accumulate before supply dries up further. 53% of circulating supply is underwater and long-term holders control 79%. the sell side is exhausted at these levels and a sovereign buyer just entered the chat
Finding a Floor
$BTC traded down to $60K as profitability collapsed, recent buyers sank into loss, and realized losses accelerated. Institutional demand weakened while options markets continued to price elevated risk.
Read the full Week On-Chain👇 https://t.co/sTgVMsT98W
$27b in BTC short liquidations stacked above current price versus $1.4b in longs below. 19:1 ratio. meanwhile $500m USDC was minted on solana june 6th, the same day BTC printed a 6-year oversold RSI and blackrock flipped back to buying after 13 straight days of selling. $262b in combined USDT and USDC sitting on the sidelines. tether dominance hits cycle highs at inflection points, not at the start of prolonged downtrends. every prior peak (nov 2022, march 2020, jan 2019) marked the bottom within weeks. the market is pricing in apocalypse with $70b in daily BTC volume. that's not distribution, that's repositioning
@brian_armstrong what about the other blockchains? all dead with no fees or transactions… we are very far from real adoption, crypto is not dead but there is still a long way till is something actually useful
Bitcoin is down ~18% from its late-May high near $78K to ~$63.8K now. The price drop is everywhere. The sentiment underneath it is the part worth seeing (researched with Santiment MCP + Claude):
📉 $BTC: ~$78K late-May high → ~$63.8K now, down ~18%, with most of the slide in the last 3 days.
📊 Social sentiment ran strongly positive at the highs: +456 on May 22, the most bullish reading of the stretch, with $BTC near its late-May high.
🪫 It flipped hard as price broke down: −160 on June 1, bottoming at −164 on June 3 — the most bearish reading — and still negative today.
🧭 The crowd was most bullish near the highs and most bearish near the lows — sentiment moving with price, not ahead of it.
Sentiment isn’t a timing tool. But peak bullishness at the top and peak bearishness at the (potential local) bottom is the inverse of where conviction usually pays.
The "Crypto is dead, its all going to tech stocks" narrative is alluring but overall this is the actual results from the liquidity cycle low in 2022...