Anthropic CEO:
"If my revenue is not $1 trillion, even $800 billion,
there's no force on earth, no hedge on earth,
that could stop me from going bankrupt."
In a 3-hour podcast, Dario Amodei does the math on his own bankruptcy.
Revenue 10x a year.
90% of code written by the model.
A country of geniuses by 2028.
He can't tell you if it ends in trillions or zero.
The most honest voice in AI, or the biggest bubble admitting it?
It's always useful to ask "Why?" to things like this. Why is SpaceX so valuable?
In my opinion, it's because it has a unique technology, reusable rockets, and demonstrated success at putting payloads into orbit in a cost effective way.
The potential of SpaceX is that it unlocks industries in space (e.g. data centers) and access to the incomprehensibly vast resources of space. In this light, SpaceX having a huge valuation seems reasonable.
This is gonna upset a lot of people:
But TA is astrology for traders.
It's confirmation bias + trading human psychology about entries.
Kinda like how people frontran $SPCE from $SPCX IPO expecting retail to mess up tickers by trading psychology.
$SIVE didn't go up 1900% because of the golden cross space comet firebreathing dragon candle that someone is trying to sell for $499.
It's because markets are pricing in future revenue from $JBL, $GFS that got announced.
$AXTI didn't go up 8000% because the golden waterfall candle alert sounded back at $8.
it's because of InP substrate, game theory on ASP hikes, export controls, photonics demand, and others.
If you want to figure out psychologically what other regards are believing, you use TA.
But for determining the actual upside... nah
People have been drawing $120+ TAs on $IREN for the past idk how many months none of that crap matters when there's a $6B ATM that needs to be bought through first.
It's by theme (eg. $LITE to $AAOI relations), any news catalysts that affect forward revenue, projections, macro news, earnings, float dynamics, and so on.
Then you can just derive what MC that company should be at.
So for entry points, sure you can use TA.
For determining where the stock heads, just throw the tyrannosaurs rex omega-green candle indicator out the window.
This is absolutely insane.
The SpaceX, $SPCX, IPO officially began trading 15 minutes ago and there are already 160 MILLION shares traded.
That's ~$26 BILLION worth of shares traded in 15 minutes.
In other words, $1.7 billion worth of $SPCX is being traded PER MINUTE right now.
Absolutely incredible.
What happens when agents with all possible strategies compete? That's a question for ruliology. With some surprising answers...
https://t.co/5RdL27qQc3
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Adjusted for inflation, the SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI IPOS will raise as much or more than the 300 internet and TMT IPOs did in 2000.
$SPCX #Anthropic#chatGPT#SpaceX#openai
A big pivot from Ken Griffin on AI:
“Number one is, in the last few months, there has been a step change in the productivity of the AI toolkit. It is profoundly more powerful than it was just nine months ago.
And for us at Citadel, that has allowed us to unleash a much broader array of use cases for AI. And it has been really interesting to watch, to be blunt, work that we would usually do with people with masters and PhDs in finance over the course of weeks or months being done by AI agents over the course of hours or days.
These are not these are not mid-tier white collar jobs. These are like extraordinarily high skilled jobs being, I'm going to pick a word, automated by agentic AI. And I gotta tell you, I went home one Friday actually fairly depressed by this because you could just see how this was going to have such a dramatic impact on society.
When you witness it in your own four walls, when you see work that used to be man years of work being done in days or weeks, it's like, wow, like that's the first time I've seen real impact in our four walls.”
This echoes my own experience with agents and the conversations I am having with students, friends & clients. The toolkit has dramatically transformed and it feels like in finance, for the first time, AI is real.