#MSTR didn’t make a higher high.
#BTC made a higher high.
Divergence- I tend to trust stock market more. Saw a similar pattern last cycle as well - MSTR didn’t make a higher high in Nov 2021.
Caution ⛔️
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🇮🇩 Rupiah depreciated back to 17,700/USD despite a “bazooka” interest rate hike of 50bps this week.
Our thesis remains intact.
A monetary move is insufficient (or somewhat irrelevant) because the main catalyst to outflows is the lack of fiscal credibility and distrust to policy direction.
Fun fact: The combined net foreign inflows from Indonesian equity (IHSG) and bond markets (SRBI + SBN) reached IDR 25 trillion this year, suggesting that most of the capital flight come from domestic.
Will they care about an interest rate increase? Unlikely
🇺🇸/IRAN - The US isn't trying to open the Strait of Hormuz - it is literally blockading it and perpetuating a war that ensures insecurity around it indefinitely.
The US is engaged in a controlled demolition of Middle East energy exports and a large part of the global economy dependent on those exports.
It is playing games to manage prices and markets as it does so - NOT trying to find a way "out" of consequences everyone in Washington knew about before launching the most recent war of aggression.
The US simply doesn't want things to collapse overnight - just like it managed Europe's decoupling from Russian energy (which is still taking place).
Theories otherwise are based entirely on believing US statements at face value, as if the US is in the habit of telling the truth especially when things are going poorly?
And yes, the US would rather pretend a bumbling president caused all of this by "accident" than admit it is deliberately imploding Asian energy sources and thus Asia's economy and beyond (just like it has to Europe already).
That's why elections, the White House and the US Congress exist - a layer between the actual interests running US policy and the public - to serve as scapegoats and excuses easily disposed of and replaced every 4-8 years.
"Professor, don't you find it curious that a new US-Iran peace deal leaks almost every time the 10y UST yield breaks 4.4% on the upside?"
"Actually, if I think about it, I don't find it curious at all."
> be chinese ai labs
> while claude and openai are in cold war
> kimi dropped k2.6 using deepseek's v3 architecture
> the same week deepseek drops v4 using kimi's muon optimizer
> 1.6 trillion parameters & 1M context
> both match or beat closed models on benchmarks while being 8x cheaper
> both build on each other's breakthroughs
> keep shipping frontier LLMs with far less or nerfed NVIDA GPUs
> and keep them 100% open sourced
the real battle is not between models,
it's open source vs closed.