Everyone braced for $200 oil. Instead it fell below $70, and the reason is hiding inside China...
That puzzle drove my whole conversation with energy analyst Rory Johnston.
Over 100 days into a Hormuz closure, he expected demand destruction so brutal it would take prices to levels we've never seen.
It never came. So where did the missing barrels go?
His answer: nearly everything broke right at once. Saudi and Emirati bypass pipelines ran flat out, 400 million barrels of strategic reserves were released, and then the real shock, Chinese crude imports collapsed by roughly 5 million barrels a day.
China alone quietly absorbed 400 to 500 million barrels of the blow, almost certainly by draining hidden underground reserves nobody can see by satellite.
But Rory's warning is that this calm is borrowed.
Every buffer, commercial stocks, strategic reserves, stranded tankers, has been drained at maximum pace.
Tankers are flowing out, but owners are too spooked to send empty ships back in, afraid the jaws clamp shut again.
And Iran is still throttling traffic on purpose.
They're watching the price, holding back just enough to keep their leverage.
@Rory_Johnston
API Inventory Moves 06/16
Crude -8.33 million (exp. -4.5 million)
Gasoline +2.479 million
Distillates -461,000
Cushing -1.523 million
SPR actual -8.9 million (lowest levels since.... 1983)
#oott#crudeoil#gasoline#API
API Inventory Moves 5/27
Crude -2.8 million
Gasoline -3.199 million
Distillates +1.1 million
Cushing -2.875 million
SPR - 9.1 million #oott#crudeoil#api#gasoline
API Inventory Moves 5/27
Crude -2.8 million
Gasoline -3.199 million
Distillates waiting for confirmation
Cushing -2.875 million
#oott#crudeoil#api#gasoline
I don’t care who you are....whether you’re a bull, a bear, or somewhere in between...you need to show some respect to us: oil investors.
We get jawboned on a daily basis, bombarded with fake news that everyone later admits was nonsense. The volatility is brutal, yet we’re still holding strong and investing in the companies that deliver real energy security to the world.
A little respect and appreciation would be nice. #LFG🫡🪒
Join me at 12ET today on @marketcall. I'll explain why oil stocks represent the biggest opportunity since the COVID lows of April 2020, why we are soon approaching the tipping point for oil, and why we see meaningful upside ahead.
🚨 Another top Canadian doctor just ditched a major Toronto hospital for Texas.
Higher salary.
Way lower taxes.
Homes he can actually afford.
The numbers are brutal:
•Ontario surgeon: ~$395K CAD gross → only ~$260K net after Trudeau’s tax hammer.
•Texas: $428K USD gross → ~$300K USD net (no state income tax).
•Housing: Texas ~$300-350K USD vs. $850K+ in Ontario.
This isn’t one guy chasing a dream, he’s exited a tax to poverty Country!
This is the brain drain on steroids — our best doctors are voting with their feet because Canada taxes and prices them out.
High taxes, insane cost of living, collapsing healthcare.
When are we going to wake up and stop the bleed?
#cdnpoli #BrainDrain #DoctorShortage #TrudeauLegacy #CanadaLast
@UndervaluedOnG Congratulations on the new cottage! It is such a great way for families to spend time together. You’re gonna need those dividends now to pay for maintenance lol.
falling imports isn't demand destruction, guys
imports *have* to fall because exports have collapsed, going back to the discussion about the end of the "air pocket"
then you draw down stocks, then prices rise, and then you destroy demand