Y'all seen that movie where the bad guys can't get to the treasure because it's in a super-secure vault? Then they scare the targets enough to move their treasure to a new super-duper-secure location?
That's where they strike - between secure locations. Careful moving things.
It's important for me to share my thoughts now while I can. Sadly, Victor Nieiderhoffer passed yesterday. I share my stories of Vic in my book. Eccentric person who influenced Toby Crabel and Monroe Trout. Worth reading his book! The Education of a Speculator.
It took me 17 hours to access my coldcard and safely transfer my funds to a multi sig.
All because when set it up back in 2021 I was too lazy to roll the dice/ didn’t fully understand how to do it.
Peter is not correct about me in this case.
I have always known that dangers from Earth will also pose dangers to Mars. Obviously so. However, the immense difficulty of traveling to Mars means that there is a much higher likelihood of mitigating risks originating from Earth.
A clear example of major risk reduction would be a deadly pandemic. Since it takes 6 months to reach Mars, there is an automatic 6 month quarantine!
Even traveling at the speed of light, a deadly computer virus or AI attack can potentially be stopped due to Mars being ~4 to ~20 light-minutes from Earth.
This doesn’t mean that a Mars civilization eliminates all risk, but it absolutely greatly reduces the risk of consciousness being extinguished.
Moreover, Mars is a stepping stone to extending consciousness broadly within our solar system and ultimately to millions of stars within our galaxy, which would extend the probable lifespan of consciousness as we know it by many orders of magnitude.
That said, what I personally find most motivating is not the risk reduction aspect of extending life beyond Earth, but rather the inspiring nature of exploration and being out there among the stars!
Perhaps we will meet aliens or find the remains of long-dead civilizations that lasted millions of years …
People often ask me what they should read. I assembled 38 works on history, war, uncertainty, liberty, capital, energy, technology, and Bitcoin for leaders making consequential decisions. Read to remember. Read to reason. Read to build. Upgrade the world.
According to Edwards & Magee's philosophy, a pattern can still be considered successful even if the price falls just short of its measured objective.
Their reasoning is based on two key ideas:
1)Price objectives are approximations, not exact forecasts.
2)They repeatedly stress that measured objectives are estimates of the minimum probable move, not precise price levels. Markets rarely stop exactly at a projected objective.
3)The primary test of a pattern is whether it correctly anticipated the direction of the move.
If a confirmed pattern breaks out and produces a substantial move in the expected direction, the pattern has largely done its job—even if it reverses a few percent before reaching the calculated objective.
After 50 years of trading my perspective of an individual trade has completely changed
Rather than concern about whether a trade will make money or not,
My concern is with following my rules
Here are just some of them
I just need to ID the right X/Y intersect
Been charting for five decades - made my living as a speculator
Been a classical chartist since 1978
Not sure exactly what to call this
I'll bet on X I might have been the first to label this a diamond
Not sure that will be right
Could it be a top of sorts
Everything is possible - that is how I look at all my trades
In fact, I take a small loss on 45% of the trades I enter
On any given trade for me who believes in the law of large numbers it's a toss up
Might be right
Might not be right
If you cannot handle this mind set you are probably not meant to become a trader -- sorry
Market techies:
there is always something new in technical analysis
I remember with on-balance volume was the in thing
Then Point and Figure
Then trend following
Then Elliott Wave Theory - once it was king of the palace
Then charting
Then indicators
Then trading the stack
Now VWAP or whatever it is the kids call it
Someday some youngster will say to you ... "Vwhat?"
The more things change the more things stay the same
Classical charting was codified in 1934 ... and it has not lost a step
Old school will always rule in the end
Find yourself in what it means to pour everything you are – heart, mind and soul – into becoming a trader that will put together years, even decades, of consistently profitable trading
Bitcoin is Freedom
I spent the last few weeks in my motherland, Vietnam. The country has transformed since my family escaped in 1978. It is more prosperous, energetic, and ambitious than the Vietnam I left behind. A young population, rising investment, and global aspiration have created extraordinary momentum.
And yet one thing remains clear. For many in Vietnam, the ultimate dream is still America. And if they cannot make it to America, they want to wear American brands, eat American food, listen to American music, and exude American confidence.
My trip to Vietnam reminded me of this, and the World Cup has made it visible on a global stage. America remains not only a country people admire, but a place people still want to reach, represent, and belong to.
The United States remains the land of the free, the Wild Wild West, and the home of the American Dream. Walmart and Waffle House. Boston and Austin. Silicon Valley and Wall Street. A country where people can still rise from welfare to extraordinary success through hard work, ingenuity, risk taking, and some luck.
My family experienced that promise directly. We arrived in America as refugees, sponsored by a Catholic church in Syracuse, New York. We received public assistance, food stamps, and free school lunches. My father worked three jobs. We lived frugally and dealt with poverty and racism. America was not easy, but it was open. It gave us a system where effort, education, entrepreneurship, and perseverance could compound.
This is America. The world still aspires to be like us.
What has made America successful over the last 250 years is not accidental. It is a principled Constitution, geographic scale, abundant resources, and a culture of liberty, capitalism, entrepreneurship, and reinvention. Other nations try to replicate the recipe, but often waver. Interventionism, bureaucracy, corruption, and ego get in the way.
Which brings me to Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is the United States of money. It aspires to do for money what the American Constitution aspired to do for government: create a system governed by transparent rules rather than the discretion of individuals. Built on a principled white paper, digitally enforced scarcity, and proof of work, Bitcoin is digital capital governed by code, energy, and consensus.
But beyond that, Bitcoin is hope.
It provides hope for those who have worked hard for their money and want to protect it from monetary inflation. It provides hope for those born in countries without reliable rule of law or economic freedoms. It provides hope for anyone seeking protection, opportunity, and a form of property that does not depend on geography, politics, or permission.
I was born in the year of America’s bicentennial. Fifty years later, the future of American dominance is being questioned. I have no question. The United States of America is the greatest country in the world.
My life is proof of what America makes possible. I left Vietnam as a refugee, grew up poor in America, built a career through education and hard work, and now have a wonderful wife and three children. That is the American Dream to me. It is not just wealth. It is freedom, family, opportunity, and the ability to determine your own future.
That is also why Bitcoin resonated with me. I found Bitcoin because it reflected the same principles that shaped my life: clear rules, individual sovereignty, property rights, resilience, open competition, and long-term conviction.
America gave my family freedom through a country. Bitcoin offers individuals monetary freedom through a network. One opened the door for me. The other opens a door for anyone, anywhere, to protect the fruits of their labor.
That is why Bitcoin is freedom.
Been trading now for 51 years - five decades that has spanned the time of six decades. It's all I have done since I was in my mid-20s. I'll be 80 years old next January. The first five years were dreadful. I blew out maybe six accounts. I mean "blew them up."
@lucidtrendz Schabacker
Edwards and Magee
Diary of a Professional Commodity Trader
Too many books are not good -- will create second guessing in your mind
"Perfection is achieved, not when there is nothing more to add, but when there is nothing left to take away." Antoine de Saint-Exupery on simplifying MicroStrategy to Strategy, 35 years after our founding by @saylor.
Brick by brick bro, don’t cheat the grind, don’t try to skip the struggle, don’t try to speed it up, don’t look for short cuts, embrace the highs and the lows, you gonna need to learn all those lessons so when you get to where you’re going, you don’t fumble the opportunity