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BY-ELECTION WATCH: Chicoutimi–Le Fjord is the race to watch tonight as voters head to the polls in three federal by-elections across Québec, Ontario, and British Columbia.

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A Segma Recherche poll for CKAJ has the Liberals at 40.3%, Bloc Québécois at 37.8%, and Conservatives at 16.8% – a statistical tie between the two leading parties.

The shift is notable: Conservatives won Chicoutimi–Le Fjord in 2025 with 34.1%, narrowly ahead of the Bloc at 31.2% and Liberals at 31.1%. The latest Segma survey therefore places Conservative support at roughly half its 2025 result, while both the Liberals and Bloc have gained ground.

The picture is considerably less competitive in the other two contests. 338Canada currently rates both Beaches–East York and North Vancouver–Capilano as safe Liberal seats.

Both were already strongly Liberal in 2025: the party won 67.7% in Beaches–East York and 59.8% in North Vancouver–Capilano.

That leaves Chicoutimi as tonight's principal test. A Conservative-held three-way marginal from 2025 has become a closely watched Liberal–Bloc contest, making the result an important measure of shifting federal support in francophone Québec.

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NEW: 14 of the 44 B.C. Conservatives elected in 2024 have now left caucus, nearly one-third of the original CPBC MLAs.

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Áʼa꞉líya Warbus is the seventh MLA to leave in the past two weeks citing concerns about party leadership.

The rupture comes less than eight weeks after the party declared its caucus "more united than ever." Despite Kerry-Lynne Findlay winning the party leadership with 51% of the final-round points, MLAs continue to leave over concerns with her leadership or the party’s direction, deepening an internal crisis just three months into her tenure.

While some MLAs have left for personal reasons or to allow Findlay to seek a seat in a byelection, at least seven have rejected Findlay's leadership and left the Conservative caucus.

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"Effective immediately," U.S. federal agencies have been directed to refer to Lake Ontario as "Lake America" in official maps, records, and communications under an executive order signed by Trump.

The move comes amid a series of assertive U.S. policy decisions that have contributed to a broader deterioration in Canadian attitudes toward Washington.

Recent Angus Reid polling found 71% of Canadians believe the U.S. should now be approached either cautiously or as a potential threat, while only 26% favour treating it as a friendly partner or valued ally.

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"Effective immediately," U.S. federal agencies have been directed to refer to Lake Ontario as "Lake America" in official maps, records, and communications under an executive order signed by Trump.

The move comes amid a series of assertive U.S. policy decisions that have contributed to a broader deterioration in Canadian attitudes toward Washington. Recent Angus Reid polling found 71% of Canadians believe the U.S. should now be approached either cautiously or as a potential threat, while only 26% favour treating it as a friendly partner or valued ally.

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In recent U.S.–Canada trade negotiations, reported U.S. demands went beyond tariffs.

#cdnpoli #tariffs

Demands included first-refusal rights on Canadian minerals, restrictions on other trade deals, weaker bilingual and cultural rules, changes favouring U.S. auto production, and priority access to Canadian energy.

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Canada walked away from U.S. trade talks after Washington reportedly demanded more than tariff concessions.

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The U.S. sought first access to Canadian critical minerals and energy, restrictions on Canada's trade deals with other countries, weaker French-language and cultural protections, an end to "Buy Canadian" policies, and auto rules shifting production to the United States. Its demands also included repealing Canada's Digital Services Tax and Online News Act and purchasing U.S. fighter jets and Arctic radar.

[Mark Carney @MarkJCarney]

Canada will match the new U.S. tariffs dollar for dollar.

In addition, we are introducing $7.5 billion in new and enhanced measures to support Canadian workers and businesses. That builds on the nearly $25 billion in supports introduced since the implementation of the U.S. unjustified tariffs.

Defending Canadian jobs, industries, and families.

Read more:
https://t.co/7m8C6HlLU2

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Danielle Smith stands apart from her conservative counterparts Scott Moe and Doug Ford, who are backing a united Canadian response to U.S. tariffs. Instead, Smith has emphasized negotiation and cautioned against retaliation.

With Abacus polling on an Alberta referendum already favouring Canada, that approach could become a political risk for the UCP.

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Danielle Smith is isolated from fellow conservative premiers Doug Ford and Scott Moe on Canada's response to U.S. tariffs. Ford backs Mark Carney's "dollar-for-dollar" retaliation, while Moe has said Canada "must respond accordingly."

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By contrast, Smith has emphasized negotiation and cautioned that retaliation would harm both economies.

That position may carry growing political risk in Alberta: 58% of Albertans support taxing oil and gas exports to the U.S., while Abacus found 64% would vote to remain in Canada in a separation referendum.

Among Albertans who believe Smith herself favours separation, the NDP leads the UCP 48-37. As support for a coordinated Canadian response to U.S. pressure grows, Smith’s distance from the national consensus could become a liability.

[Danielle Smith @ABDanielleSmith]

I am deeply disappointed that Canada and the United States have not been able to reach a trade agreement.

Alberta has always advocated for a tariff free relationship, and will continue to do so. No one benefits from a trade war. Tariffs and counter-tariffs hurt businesses, workers and families on both sides of the border, while weakening one of the most important economic and security relationships in the world.

My first concern today is for the Albertans and Canadians whose livelihoods are at risk from these new tariffs and counter-tariffs. I welcome the federal government’s intention to provide relief for those businesses that are impacted.

Alberta will continue to advocate for a strong tariff free relationship between Canada and the U.S. and I will be urging the federal government to restart negotiations as soon as possible.

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The collapse of U.S.-Canada trade negotiations came after the U.S. administration introduced last-minute demands that Canadian officials considered too much to accept.

According to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, new demands included restrictions on Canada's ability to strike trade deals with other countries, the exclusion of trucks from auto tariff relief, and attacks on French-language content rules. Carney called the terms "unfair and uneconomic."

Polling gave him room to walk: 56% of Canadians wanted no further concessions, while 74% backed taxing electricity exports.

According to Canadian officials, Canadian counter-tariffs will take effect Tuesday, September 8, 2026.

[Mark Carney @MarkJCarney]

My statement on Canada-U.S. trade negotiations:

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@MarkJCarney As Canada-U.S. trade talks collapse, recent polling from Angus Reid and Nanos shows Canadians increasingly favouring resistance over concessions. The findings challenge assumptions that economic pressure alone will force Ottawa back to the negotiating table.

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Latest Abacus and Nanos polling shows a national Liberal lead, while some local contests remain competitive.

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Full analysis & sources: https://t.co/g2IVEwmca5

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The United States has postponed its threatened 50% tariffs on a range of Canadian goods until the end of August 21, leaving Ottawa and Washington only a brief window to finalize the agreement.

Trump says the two countries have a deal subject to final documentation. Carney has been more cautious, saying substantial progress has been made, but important work remains.

The tentative agreement shifts the political question from whether Canada can avert this tariff shock to what each country would receive in return.

The broader negotiations may also raise politically sensitive questions about critical minerals, foreign investment, and domestic jobs.

An Angus Reid Institute survey conducted in October 2025 found that 64% of Canadians prioritized guaranteeing value-added jobs in Canada in exchange for U.S. access to critical minerals. In a separate question, 37% supported prohibiting U.S. investment in Canadian critical resources.

An Ipsos survey conducted that same month found that 64% of Canadians supported blocking foreign buyers from acquiring Canadian companies involved in key natural resources. Support reached 77% in British Columbia and 73% in Alberta.

These findings do not tell us how Canadians will judge an agreement whose full terms have not been published. They do show that tariff relief alone may not settle the political debate.

The harder questions will concern ownership, domestic processing, jobs, market access, and control over strategic resources.

The test may not simply be, “Did Canada get a deal?”

It may be, “What did Canada secure, what did it concede, and who bears the cost?”

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The first Ontario Liberal Party leadership debate produced few fireworks. Candidates largely directed their attacks at Doug Ford rather than one another, with few clear ideological or policy differences on display.

In his post-debate assessment, TVO’s Steve Paikin identified one relative standout: Dylan Marando. Paikin said Marando was the only candidate who came close to combining authenticity, preparation, understanding of the job, and strong performance skills.

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[Steve Paikin @spaikin]

Sorry to say, the first @OntLiberal leadership debate was one to forget https://t.co/gzdNACA5va @LFairclo @EricDLombardi @NavdeepSBains @stephaniebowman @dylanmarando @fordnation @OntarioPCParty @OntarioNDP

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Photo credits: https://t.co/bS7o7lNB6U

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Ontario votes in three by-elections on September 3: Scarborough Southwest, Hamilton East–Stoney Creek, and York–Simcoe.

The outcome won’t threaten Ford’s majority, but the campaign will test whether the Liberals or NDP can consolidate the anti-Ford vote, now amid a reported scandal that the Ontario PCs paid to surveil former Ontario Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie while she was vacationing in Jamaica.

Hamilton East–Stoney Creek: Competitive, with the Liberals favoured. Vote-Scope projects the Liberals at 40%, PCs at 33%, and NDP at 20%. Formerly an NDP stronghold before flipping PC in 2022, it is the clearest opportunity for an opposition party to take a seat from the PCs.

Scarborough Southwest: A Liberal opportunity in an NDP-held seat. A February Mainstreet poll found the Liberals at 43%, PCs at 29%, and NDP at 19%, with 22% undecided. The NDP won the seat with 43% in 2025 and has held it since 2018.

York–Simcoe: The safest PC seat of the three. The PCs won 59% in 2025 and have won every provincial election here since the riding was created in 2007. A loss would be a major upset.

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[Colin D'Mello | Global News @ColinDMello]

NEW: Premier Doug Ford claims he "just found out" that the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party -- which he heads -- spent $3,000 -- to send an individual to Jamaica to allegedly spy on then-Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie.

"I don't approve of it," Ford says.

The premier adds that he doesn't "watch every single dollar" that the Ontario PC Party spends.

"I rely on our team to make sure they spend it appropriately," Ford says.

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