PollWatch

Election analysis and polling info.

[InsiderAdvantage Polling @InsiderPolling]

InsiderAdvantage new national survey shows @realDonaldTrump approval at 52%, indicating that @POTUS support is holding up under #shutdown circumstances. And the average of @RCPolitics
job performance numbers reported by members of the National Association of Independent Pollsters, who are highly accurate, shows Trump much stronger than most non-members. As reported by @BreitbartNews @DailyCaller and other sites, the shutdown appears to be hurting the Democrats more than Trump. See report below:

InsiderAdvantage National Survey: Trump Approval at 52%
An InsiderAdvantage national survey measuring both President Trump’s job performance and personal favorability found that his job performance rating is slightly higher than his individual favorability. The survey, conducted among 800 likely voters from September 29–30, has a margin of error of 3.84%.
Job Performance:
• Approve: 52%
• Disapprove: 46%
• No opinion/Undecided: 2%
Personal Favorability:
• Favorable: 47%
• Unfavorable: 50%
• No opinion/Undecided: 3%
Analysis by InsiderAdvantage pollster Matt Towery:
Before examining the latest survey results, it’s helpful to consider the average job performance ratings for

President Trump reported by members of the
National Association of Independent Pollsters (NAIP) in the current RealClearPolitics average:
• Approve: 49.6%
• Disapprove: 48.3%
NAIP pollsters currently included in this average are InsiderAdvantage, Quantus Insights, and Rasmussen Reports. Other members have either not yet reported or have rolled out of RCP’s rolling average.
These averages from NAIP pollsters differ significantly from many other pollsters included in the RCP average, who show President Trump’s approval rating as substantially lower. Notably, NAIP members were among the most accurate public pollsters in major swing state contests during the most recent presidential election.
President Trump’s approval rating remains above fifty percent in our latest InsiderAdvantage job performance survey. He leads among all age groups except seniors, where approval and disapproval are tied. A gender gap is evident, with 58% of males approving of his job performance compared to 37%

of females. His personal favorability rating is slightly lower than his job performance rating. This indicates that Trump’s policies are able to overcome personal feelings about the president.

[Quantus Insights @QuantusInsights]

NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS POLL | New Jersey Likely Voter Survey | Sept 29–30, 2025

📊 Governor’s Race: Sherrill vs. Ciattarelli
🔵 Mikie Sherrill: 48.1% (-1)
🔴 Jack Ciattarelli: 45.8% (+7)
⚪️ Other: 1.6%
🟣Undecided: 4.5%
Lead down from +10 post–Labor Day: Now just +2.3 pts
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
📊 Independents Break Red
🔴 Ciattarelli: 51%
🔵 Sherrill: 38%
➤ Ciattarelli +13 among independents; biggest shift in race
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
📊 Black Voter Softness
🔵 Sherrill: 61%
🔴 Ciattarelli: 19%
🟣 Undecided: 15%
➤ Vulnerability for Dems; historically low support
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
📊 Education Divide
–College grads: Sherrill +11
–Non-college: Ciattarelli +5
Classic split but gap is tightening
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
📊 Trust to Deliver for NJ
🟦 Sherrill: 50%
🟥 Ciattarelli: 50%
➤ Even playing field on competence
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
📊 Mood of the Electorate
–Want an economic reset: 42%
–Want new approach on housing/energy: 34%
–Say current direction is working: 8%

➤ 76% of voters want change.
➤ No candidate has fully captured that ground — yet.
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
📊 By Age Group
🟦 18–29: Sherrill +7
🟦 30–44: Sherrill +8
🟥 45–64: Ciattarelli +6
🟦 65+: Sherrill +7
➤ Split by generation. No runaway age group
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
📊 By Gender
🟥 Men: Ciattarelli +9
🟦 Women: Sherrill +12
Standard split; both hitting base
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
📊 By Race
🟥 White: Ciattarelli +6
🟦 Black: Sherrill +42
🟦 Hispanic: Sherrill +24
🟥 Asian: Ciattarelli +6
➤ Racial polarization holds, but softness in core Dem blocs is visible
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Key Takeaways
– Sherrill still leads, but it’s not locked. The 10-point gap is gone
– Ciattarelli gains with independents, men, and non-college voters
– Black voter undecideds are a serious risk for Dems
– The trust gap is closed: voters are split on who they believe can deliver
– With the electorate demanding change, narrative control now determines the outcome
– October will decide everything

Full crosstabs + methodology: QuantusInsights [dot] org
Subscribe: Substack | Follow: @QuantusInsights

[InteractivePolls @IAPolls2022]

📊 2026 Generic Congressional Ballot

🟥 Republicans: 47%
🟦 Democrats: 41%
⬜ Not sure: 12%

McLaughlin (R) | 9/17-22 | 1,000 LV

[Michael Pruser @MichaelPruser]

Total National Voter Registration - August 31st, 2025

(August change by party)

🔴Republicans: +43,783
🔵Democrats: -55,124
🟡Others: +142,459

Apologies for the delay in finishing up August; we were waiting on the California update, and @WinWithJMC was kind enough to get in touch with Alaska so they could correct their registration report.

The country removed roughly 120,000 voters last month through a roll cleanup (primarily in Florida & Georgia), and the Democratic edge over Republicans dropped by 0.09%.

[PollWatch @PollWatch2020]

@InsiderPolling @QuantusInsights @jmclghln @SusquehannaPR @trafalgar_group @Rasmussen_Poll @BIGDATAPOLL Powerhouse

[PollWatch @PollWatch2020]

Good news and way better than mainstream media pollsters.

[Robert C. Cahaly @RobertCahaly]

BREAKING: The National Association of Independent Pollsters (NAIP) Announces New Members
@QuantusInsights, @SusquehannaPR, and @jmclghln (McLaughlin and Associates) are joining the association alongside founding members @BIGDATAPOLL, @trafalgar_group, @InsiderPolling (InsiderAdvantage), and @Rasmussen_Poll.

Membership in the Association is by invitation only. Eligible organizations must be domestic based, with a cumulative record of published public polling that demonstrates a high degree of accuracy and a low error rate.

Other polling organizations are currently under review, and additional invitations are expected to be extended in the near future.

NAIP provides the very best of the polling industry with an opportunity to collaborate, share ideas, and address the rapidly evolving challenges facing public opinion research.

[PollWatch @PollWatch2020]

@bennyjohnson Wow!

[InteractivePolls @IAPolls2022]

NYT: Red States to Gain EC Seats by 2032 Due to Population Shifts

Projected post-2030 census

🔴 TX: +3 (40→43)
🔴 FL: +2 (30→32)
🔴 ID: +1 (4→5)
🔴 UT: +1 (6→7)
🔵 CA: -3 (54→51)
🔵 IL: -2 (19→17)
🔵 NY: -1 (28→27)
🔵 RI: -1 (4→3)
——
🟥 +7
🟦 -7

https://t.co/wijfCCfTNc

[Mark Penn @Mark_Penn]

Russiagate

There is no question that the first two years of Trump 45 were disrupted on the basis of a completely phony investigation of Trump, his associates and family. The allegations were fake and based upon Clinton oppo research anyone could see was complete junk.

There is also no question that the heads of the intelligence agencies were political appointees more interested in carrying out a political war than in any way being professional. What was created was a true disgrace that absorbed the nation for years and they knew it was all made up and yet they spread it anyway.

[Rich Baris THE PEOPLE'S PUNDIT @Peoples_Pundit]

Spoken like a true clueless person.

The truth is the exact opposite. This ordeal could shore up his leftwing bona fides, and make him totally unelectable in a national election.

P.S. Trump's approval rating rose last night considerably.

[InteractivePolls @IAPolls2022]

Trafalgar Group - Trump Approval

🟢 Approve: 53.7%
🟤 Disapprove: 45.6%

Rating: B+ | 5/30-6/1 | 1,098 LV | ±2.9

[Michael Pruser @MichaelPruser]

Arizona Voter Registration Update - April 2025

[PollWatch @PollWatch2020]

A little reminder that the Mainstream Media is always wrong.

[PollWatch @PollWatch2020]

@BretWeinstein True

[InteractivePolls @IAPolls2022]

📊 Trump approval daily tracking

🟢 Approve: 52% (+5)
🟤 Disapprove: 47%

@Rasmussen_Poll | 1,500 LV | 3/21-25

[InteractivePolls @IAPolls2022]

📊 Trump approval daily tracking

🟢 Approve: 51% (+4)
🟤 Disapprove: 47%

Was net: +2 (50-48) yesterday

@Rasmussen_Poll | 1,500 LV | 3/16-20

[InteractivePolls @IAPolls2022]

📊 2026 New Hampshire Senate

🟥 Chris Sununu: 53%
🟦 Chris Pappas: 44%
——
@QuantusInsights | 650 RV | 3/17-19
https://t.co/MMqpxxH4lX

[PollWatch @PollWatch2020]

“the Democratic registration edge over Republicans dropped by 0.22%.”

[Michael Pruser @MichaelPruser]

Total National Voter Registration - February 28th, 2025

With California finally posting its post-election update, totals through February are complete.

(February change by party)

🔴Republicans: -29,106
🔵Democrats: -308,910
🟡Others: +28,148

Many states used February to purge inactive voters from the rolls. This month, the Democratic registration edge over Republicans dropped by 0.22%.

[Michael Pruser @MichaelPruser]

California Voter Registration Update - March 2025