Pony Capper 🐎

Horseplayer, handicapper, gambler, golfer, bow hunter.

[Pony Capper 🐎 @PonyCapper]

Growing the game of horse racing.

This comes up all the time. I’m a fairly new player. I’m in a younger demographic 21-30. What drew me in initially was my grandpa always having tvg on and then later on figuring out how long the odds can be on straight/exotic wagers.

[Chris Fallica @chrisfallica]

Why wouldn't this info be readily available to bettors? Kind of important to know, right?

[Pony Capper 🐎 @PonyCapper]

@AHPDrew to your point. if someone has this, we all should. that info edge is completely unfair and screams corruption from someone or some group. I think its understandable that everyone isnt priced the same. but info or access (even if $$$) should be available

[Pony Capper 🐎 @PonyCapper]

99% of handicappers wouldnt see a benefit, but in the hands of CAW or a guy like @AHPDrew this is extremely value data you could back test and exploit. Think of it like Lasix stats. Imagine a small TR is 38% first after shockwave and youre the only one who knows. Thats massive

[GhostofSwiftHitter @GhostofSwiftH]

🚨For the record lot of talk Kinchen has been acccused of having Vet pps🚨 i believe em. I dont think he has ever seen them or used em

[Pony Capper 🐎 @PonyCapper]

@AHPDrew my point would be is if you had enough data you could back test it and find out the impact it has on specific trainers which could provide a massive edge. I am the same way on treatments, but if I know X trainer is 36% first off throat surgery on 50 race sample and 4$ roi. huge

[Pony Capper 🐎 @PonyCapper]

$18.60 @EmilyOptixEQ

[Pony Capper 🐎 @PonyCapper]

@fatbaldguyracin 2nd choice in double, 3rd choice in p3s

[Pony Capper 🐎 @PonyCapper]

@GhostofSwiftH if ward breaks, 1 airs. jockeys killed that race, when 6 walked it was over

[Pony Capper 🐎 @PonyCapper]

@DJPie I think the 10th hole for Cam is a perfect encapsulation of why his game is beloved by fans. He is modern in speed and distance, has no fear at going at pins, yet when put into a tough situation has the craft around the greens that most bombers dont (10 today, 8 masters)

[Pony Capper 🐎 @PonyCapper]

@pawluk_michael I have full belief CAW teams either already are or will be using AI to factor in trip handicapping into the algorithm. The sliver of an edge if any a retail horseplayer has today will be gone in the next 12 months.

[Pony Capper 🐎 @PonyCapper]

@BillyBelterra turfway field size and handle # s somewhat support this take.

[Pony Capper 🐎 @PonyCapper]

@EJXD2 does wagering data support that when a derby winner participates in the Preakness handle increases?

[Pony Capper 🐎 @PonyCapper]

@Luckismyfriend @fatbaldguyracin 1. reduce T/O & rebate for all
2. Cap all Caws (tracks know who they are) as a % of pool they are playing. No more than say 15%.
3. Allow same access to pool data to all players
4. No batch wagers inside final 5mtp
5. no canceled wagers unless a scratch for caw play final 5mtp

[Pony Capper 🐎 @PonyCapper]

@Luckismyfriend @fatbaldguyracin Agreed it would disappear, I just dont think racing folks have the stomach to price out there largest customer and wait on the return of their most profitable customers, if that makes any sense. I think the answer lies in between what we have now and total removal. 1/2

[Pony Capper 🐎 @PonyCapper]

@Gulfstream_Mike @mstanton1975 @Silk1900 you wont ever see this posted by racing officials but I would imagine Horse racing profits are similar to this. With that said I think Kalshi could be an interesting market for horseplayers that wouldn't be infested by CAWs.

[Pony Capper 🐎 @PonyCapper]

@mstanton1975 who can I talk to that understands how a mkt is created on kalshi? Why was the derby not available, and why is there not markets for Y/N on mjr races like Trpl crwn, BC Clsc, ect? surely horseplayers would be interested. @Silk1900 eludes to this on some podcasts.

[Pony Capper 🐎 @PonyCapper]

@SaratogaSkelly @mstanton1975 @Silk1900 good info, thanks for sharing.

[Pony Capper 🐎 @PonyCapper]

@Luckismyfriend @fatbaldguyracin massive rebates to CAW is an issue, but the largest issue is the ability to wager in large batches at the last possible second instantaneously. the sophistication, precision, and scale of CAW teams cannot be understated.

[Pony Capper 🐎 @PonyCapper]

@Luckismyfriend @fatbaldguyracin Agreed. Those left are surviving off of rebate, no doubt.

I just think it’s impossible to know truly how much a CAW deflates expected return. Some very smart people have suggested that caw pools raise effective takeout to nearly 30%. 30% to 18%, 12% “rebate” > 8% real, if true.

[Pony Capper 🐎 @PonyCapper]

@fatbaldguyracin @Luckismyfriend It’s impossible for a retail player to truly comprehend the results of zero caw play in all pools. On flip side, how many more 7fig players would there be with no caw/ how many 7fig players have we lost in last 10 years? Direct result of caws even wit rebate

[Pony Capper 🐎 @PonyCapper]

@ProjectedOdds Is 1.4 translation to 1.4-1?