Pramit Bhattacharya

Head of Research @dataforin
Columnist @htTweets, Fellow @newindiafndtion
Tweets are personal, retweets aren't endorsements

[Pramit Bhattacharya @pramit_b]

How many men and women are employed in India?
A #thread on Indian statisticians' struggle to answer this question accurately over the past seven decades:
(1/n)

[Sandhya @TheRestlessQuil]

More than the young woman who stopped the police van, it is this picture that symbolises the protest for me. Look at it. Then come back and look at it again. Some things that are flipped on their heads, some things astonishing yet natural in their existence, and some others just marvelous in the moment that was captured here.

[Rukmini S @Rukmini]

Long before we ever worked together, the first voice I'd want to read on the measurement of India's GDP would be @pramit_b's. With Pramit now Head of Research at @dataforin, I am delighted to share his work for us on how India's GDP is measured, and what changed recently.

[Rahul Verma @rahul_tverma]

Why Indian politics has high volatility?

please join us TODAY, July 15, 6:30 pm, IIC Annex Lecture Room II with @BDUTT, @Roshanjnu & Pradeep Chhibber

Chhibber will present findings from his forthcoming book with @fr_jensenius that argues poor voters remain under-mobilized.

[Alter Magazine @AlterMagIndia]

Introducing @jainhiya_, author of @AlterMagIndia Issue #4, profiling the Indian Statistical Institute and the man who built it with a ₹238 budget.

Hiya is a fellow at @rootsofprogress & wrote her undergraduate thesis on the French polymath, Henri Poincaré and the aesthetics of mathematics.

Quiz her on how scientists use beauty as a proxy for truth.

🗓️Friday, May 22nd
🕔5pm
📍The Takshashila Institution, Bangalore

Sign up on the Luma in the thread below.

[Pramit Bhattacharya @pramit_b]

Will be at Takshashila (Church St) tomorrow evening to discuss Mahalanobis and his statistical legacy:

[Alter Magazine @AlterMagIndia]

Pramit Bhattacharya has spent years decoding the numbers through which India sees itself.

As research lead at @dataforin, columnist at @htTweets, and former Data Editor at @livemint, @pramit_b has built a career around making public data clearer, sharper, and harder to ignore.

He helped set up Plain Facts, one of India’s first data journalism units, and is currently working on a book on the evolution of national accounting in India.

For Alter Magazine's Issue #4, he joins us to explore Mahalanobis, the Indian Statistical Institute, and the story of how modern India learnt to see itself through data.

https://t.co/CDz1bONMDJ

[Pramit Bhattacharya @pramit_b]

@adadithya @AlterMagIndia @dataforin @htTweets @livemint Thanks Adithya, look forward to this

[Pramit Bhattacharya @pramit_b]

Wrote this in 2022: "If sovereigns (/central banks) consider #gold as a status symbol and a safe haven in a climate of uncertainty, why expect households to be any different?"
https://t.co/qSNn7oLxQz

[Milan Vaishnav @MilanV]

.@pramit_b: India’s labour regime has been disjointed from the start. Its new labour codes address only a small part of the problem; the basic structure of the existing labour regime stands. No labour market boom without a reset in capital-labour relations https://t.co/mY1bgNopfW

[Pramit Bhattacharya @pramit_b]

Mint's data team - under Tanay and Pragya's leadership - has consistently been able to cut through the noise, and deliver sharp, thoughtful takes on the economy.
If you fit the bill, and want to work with the best in the business, do apply:

[AEA Information @AEAInformation]

Congratulations to Ludwig Straub (@ludwigstraub) of @Harvard, winner of the 2026 John Bates Clark Medal! https://t.co/LmaCMo0HXS

[Pramit Bhattacharya @pramit_b]

Link to column: https://t.co/t8xFWtgzMs

[Pramit Bhattacharya @pramit_b]

The latest #SimplyEconomics column was on the limitations of India's census apparatus, and ways to strengthen it:

[Pramit Bhattacharya @pramit_b]

The latest #SimplyEconomics column was on the great global demographic U-turn: from fears of overpopulation till a few years back to fears of depopulation now.
https://t.co/RjWUHaRYTM

[Pramit Bhattacharya @pramit_b]

The latest #SimplyEconomics column is about the new GDP series - what it tells us about the economy, and what it tells us about the policy/stats establishment. https://t.co/s4XUnCtGsX

[John A. List @Econ_4_Everyone]

When AI first arrived on the scene, I worried it would make economists, or even critical thinkers more broadly, less valuable. In my travels in the past 6 months to work with non-profits, for profits, and government agencies, I have observed how people are actually using AI. I have watched them fumble around with insights they clearly did not create themselves.

My fears are now assuaged. One observation is that AI can produce something that in some cases is very wrong and in others looks nearly right, but is not quite there. Even if in time AI improves to "nearly right" or "exactly right" every time, a second issue still arises: explaining the materials.

Explaining why an answer is almost correct but subtly off requires exactly the critical thinking skills that created the knowledge in the first place. Even explaining "exactly right" material takes critical thinking. I've watched smart people confidently present AI-generated material they clearly don't fully understand. The words sound right. But when someone pushes back just a little bit, the sand castle crumbles.

It is quite difficult to defend what you didn't build. This leads me to now make the optimistic case for human expertise. The value of deeply understanding something — of having built the knowledge yourself — hasn't diminished with AI. If anything, it's increased. The people who can tell the difference between "nearly right" and "right" are more valuable than ever. The people who can explain the subtle details about something that is exactly right are invaluable.

Creating knowledge still matters. Maybe now more than ever.

[Pramit Bhattacharya @pramit_b]

Journalists filing endless copies on banks not getting enough deposits (and their editors) need to read this:

[Ananth Narayan @ananthng]

The Credit-Deposit Ratio—A Primer

Some of the recent commentary around the high banking Credit-Deposit (CD) ratio seems to miss a basic point: deposit growth is largely an outcome of credit creation, currency withdrawals, and foreign currency flows — not an independent driver.

Growth in overall banking deposits is a dependent variable, that is mathematically a result of:

• (+) Growth in banking loans
• (+) Net FX inflows
• (+) Growth in bank and RBI lending to the government (that is spent by the government)
• (-) Growth in currency in circulation
• (-) Retained profits & capital raises of banks and RBI

The Takeaways:

1. Loans funds themselves (systemwide): The banking system creates deposits when it extends credit. Counterintuitively, at a systemic level, a "lack of deposits" is not a structural constraint to lending. Individual banks, however, still have to compete for funding stability - more on that later.

2. Headline statutory reserves (SLR/ CRR) are not a constraint: With banks holding significantly excess SLR/ liquidity, the system is not constrained by headline SLR/ CRR statutory reserves.

3. The "Raising Deposits" Myth: When we exhort the banking system to "raise deposits," look at the above equation. What is actually under banking control? Ironically, the easiest way for the banking system to create more deposits is by lending more! Individual banks can compete for a larger slice of the deposit pie with better rates, but that doesn't grow the overall pie itself.

4. Mutual Funds are not a "Leakage" of bank deposits: When households invest in mutual funds, insurance, or pensions, the money remains within the banking system — it simply moves between accounts.

5. The real possible constraint for bankers: A shift from long-term deposits to short-term or demand deposits, particularly away from retail and into wholesale, can impact banking LCR (Liquidity Coverage Ratio) and NSFR (Net Stable Funding Ratio). This can be the real constraint to banking business. This is a nuance of duration and stability, not a "loss of deposits”, and has to be articulated and debated as such. If all this boils down to banks needing more long-term deposits, especially from households, the discussion points could well be around fair interest rates (is there financial repression?), banking efficiency, and the need for a level playing field across household savings into fixed income and equity.

In the current context, net FX outflows and relatively high growth in currency in circulation are the primary reasons deposit growth is trailing, leading to the optically high CD ratio. But the real policy discussion should focus on liquidity drivers and funding stability, not the headline ratio alone.

#Banking #Macroeconomics #RBI #MonetaryPolicy #Finance #IndiaEconomy

[Ananth Narayan @ananthng]

The Credit-Deposit Ratio—A Primer

Some of the recent commentary around the high banking Credit-Deposit (CD) ratio seems to miss a basic point: deposit growth is largely an outcome of credit creation, currency withdrawals, and foreign currency flows — not an independent driver.

Growth in overall banking deposits is a dependent variable, that is mathematically a result of:

• (+) Growth in banking loans
• (+) Net FX inflows
• (+) Growth in bank and RBI lending to the government (that is spent by the government)
• (-) Growth in currency in circulation
• (-) Retained profits & capital raises of banks and RBI

The Takeaways:

1. Loans funds themselves (systemwide): The banking system creates deposits when it extends credit. Counterintuitively, at a systemic level, a "lack of deposits" is not a structural constraint to lending. Individual banks, however, still have to compete for funding stability - more on that later.

2. Headline statutory reserves (SLR/ CRR) are not a constraint: With banks holding significantly excess SLR/ liquidity, the system is not constrained by headline SLR/ CRR statutory reserves.

3. The "Raising Deposits" Myth: When we exhort the banking system to "raise deposits," look at the above equation. What is actually under banking control? Ironically, the easiest way for the banking system to create more deposits is by lending more! Individual banks can compete for a larger slice of the deposit pie with better rates, but that doesn't grow the overall pie itself.

4. Mutual Funds are not a "Leakage" of bank deposits: When households invest in mutual funds, insurance, or pensions, the money remains within the banking system — it simply moves between accounts.

5. The real possible constraint for bankers: A shift from long-term deposits to short-term or demand deposits, particularly away from retail and into wholesale, can impact banking LCR (Liquidity Coverage Ratio) and NSFR (Net Stable Funding Ratio). This can be the real constraint to banking business. This is a nuance of duration and stability, not a "loss of deposits”, and has to be articulated and debated as such. If all this boils down to banks needing more long-term deposits, especially from households, the discussion points could well be around fair interest rates (is there financial repression?), banking efficiency, and the need for a level playing field across household savings into fixed income and equity.

In the current context, net FX outflows and relatively high growth in currency in circulation are the primary reasons deposit growth is trailing, leading to the optically high CD ratio. But the real policy discussion should focus on liquidity drivers and funding stability, not the headline ratio alone.

#Banking #Macroeconomics #RBI #MonetaryPolicy #Finance #IndiaEconomy

[Pramit Bhattacharya @pramit_b]

@pavantimma45 Thanks Sir.

[Pramit Bhattacharya @pramit_b]

There is growing recognition today that our cities are crumbling, and they need better infrastructure and financing.
But building livable cities is not just a financing challenge. It is an institutional one, I argue in the latest #SimplyEconomics column: https://t.co/v4Ojrj0KO2

[Jesús Fernández-Villaverde @JesusFerna7026]

Every time I post about falling fertility, someone replies: “Great for the planet.” I understand the intuition, but it gets the economics almost exactly backwards.

To be clear: I am not arguing for explosive population growth. A gentle decline or stabilization would be my first choice. The problem is that we are not heading toward a gentle decline. We are heading toward a collapse. And a collapse changes everything.

Environmental protection behaves like a luxury good. As countries become richer, citizens demand cleaner air, cleaner water, and stronger climate policy. Prosperity creates both the willingness and the fiscal capacity to pay for these goods.

This is not a theoretical curiosity. The modern environmental movement was born in California in the 1960s, when the state was among the richest in the richest country on earth. That was no coincidence. You need to be prosperous before you start worrying about the spotted owl.

A sustained fertility collapse works in the opposite direction. As populations age, pension and healthcare costs rise while the tax base shrinks. Governments under that kind of fiscal pressure protect mandatory spending first because that is what voters scream about (I am from Europe, and I can tell you this is the case with 100% certainty). Environmental investment, which is largely discretionary, is the easiest to postpone. And it will be postponed, particularly in middle- and low-income countries.

Environmental policy is not a costless virtue. It requires administrative capacity, long planning horizons, and resources. Lots of resources. Decarbonization alone demands trillions in public and private investment over the coming decades. Where will that money come from if the working-age population is shrinking and the dependency ratio is exploding?

If demographic collapse erodes prosperity and fiscal space, and the evidence strongly suggests it will, it will not increase environmental investment. It will make it harder to sustain.

So, if you care about the environment, I am sorry, but what is happening with fertility right now is terrible news.