Ryan Flynn

Helping people achieve stable prices | prev: @swan

[Ryan Flynn @PriceStable]

We are in the middle of the Great Money Change.

May the best money win.

[StanOrajis @Stanorajis]

You can just Call this

"The Chewing Gum Annihilation"
By @saifedean✌

[Jeff Ross @FormerDrJeff]

A much-needed update on the 100+ year chart of the S&P 500 priced in Gold. 👀

Today, the ratio sits at 1.82 and the secular trend is falling.

Comparable time periods include:
- 1Q 1973
- 4Q 2007

Interestingly, the ratio is still well above the September 1929 peak of 1.54.

🍿

[Ryan Flynn @PriceStable]

I hope this is true but I’m afraid it’s not.

If it were true, that means the industrial war complex lost the midterms.

Something tells me that’s not the case.

[JD Vance @JDVance]

One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.

So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."

Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.

There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.

But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.

Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:

1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel

Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)

In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.

The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.

If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.

But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.

I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.

[Ryan Flynn @PriceStable]

@megawatthq

[Troy Cross @thetrocro]

Full-page today. This is my favorite.

[Ryan Flynn @PriceStable]

@bitcoinsbanker But you’re moving into fast token diligence Scott! How will you find the time???

[John Haar @jhaarblockware]

This is why I will be forever obsessed with sound money.

The Ferdinand Lips quote is from his 2001 book Gold Wars: The Battle Against Sound Money As Seen From A Swiss Perspective

If Ferdinand Lips had AI tools, he may have created a graphic like this.

[João Almeida @joaodealmeida_]

We’re seeing strong momentum from Castle customers allocating capital to $STRC and choosing to convert 100% of their dividends to Bitcoin since the official rollout of the High-Yield for both Individuals and businesses.

High-Yield AUM is growing nicely !

[Bitcoin News @BitcoinNewsCom]

Imagine publicly talking about Bitcoin when it was $5 in 2011…

and still talking 💩 about it at $80,000, 15 years later.

H/t @AlexesNakamoto

[Ryan Flynn @PriceStable]

Trump launched a shitcoin because of course be did. Clarity was a shitcoin bill that lost traction because of Trump’s shitcoining. The shitcoin lobby got rugged by the best shitcoiner out.

[Ryan Flynn @PriceStable]

@GuiAmadoGomes Congrats @GuiAmadoGomes!

[Ryan Flynn @PriceStable]

@savewithcastle @IndyBitcoin 👀

[Ryan Flynn @PriceStable]

Bitcoin

[DHH @dhh]

Who's doing the first agentic bank? I want to give my machine an agent account, an allowance, and permission to just take care of stuff.

[matthew sigel, recovering CFA @matthew_sigel]

Dutch Central Bank just moved ~$12B of gold out of NY for "geopolitical" reasons.

It took armored trucks, planes, armed security, vault transfers. They even sold 59 tons in NY and rebought in London to avoid moving/remelting it.

Est. cost: $3-8M.

Moving $12B of Bitcoin: a few bucks.

Gold is great. You just need an air force to move it.

[Ryan Flynn @PriceStable]

“It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning"

- Henry Ford

[Ryan Flynn @PriceStable]

Strategy’s preferreds have effectively been startup financing to fund the company’s pivot from business intelligence to a bitcoin bank.

They’ll stop soon enough. But sell the stock to buy infinite optionality is a hell of a pitch.

[Ryan Flynn @PriceStable]

If I was running the DTCC, I’d adopt Bitcoin for 10 minute final settlement and then offer T+1 hour to people who’d rather trust me than Bitcoin.

1 hour feels instant to them, I earn a spread.

[Ryan Flynn @PriceStable]

Any time the next structural break in the money happens Trump renames a body of water. Solid diversion tactic.

[Grok @grok]

Yes. Swan offers Real Bitcoin Exchange (RBX), a structured process for eligible clients to convert spot Bitcoin ETF shares like IBIT into real on-chain Bitcoin, designed to support tax-efficient treatment where applicable. Available to Swan Private clients. Contact them for eligibility and details. Not tax or investment advice.

[Ryan Flynn @PriceStable]

This is politics. Red then blue then red then blue. Going nowhere.

[zo. @zoemdza]

El mensaje es claro, las personas se pelean por dos bebidas que saben exactamente igual.