Hibbs

Interest rate derivatives trader, Convert Arb HF MD, Cornell grad, Proud US Veteran, Defense Intel (DIA) cryptanalyst, coder, AI (bf 2nd winter), pilot, sailor.

[C3 @C_3C_3]

“The US government will only do what Somalians in the US tell them to do. They will do what we want and nothing else. They must follow our orders."

- Ilhan Omar

They don’t assimilate.

They all must go.

[Eric Daugherty @EricLDaugh]

🚨 HOLY CRAP! At John Thune’s event in South Dakota, Scott Presler was told “GET THE HELL OUT OF HERE” because he’s pushing so hard for the SAVE America Act

Presler has a ticket to the SD GOP event but was BANNED 🤯

“I’m the A-hole saying you can’t come in! Because you’re posting this little piss and moan session!”

PRESLER: “See how the grassroots are welcomed?”

UNBELIEVABLE!

[The Undercurrent @NotTheirScript]

This is the DSA co-chair. Let me summarize what he says in this video:

We’re using the Democratic Party as a ballot-access vehicle, not because we share its goals. We build our own organization, get elected under the Democratic label, caucus with Democrats when it’s useful, and push our own agenda from the inside. We see the Democratic establishment as an obstacle, not a home.

[Kevin Sorbo @ksorbs]

A Muslim woman in a hijab just said that “America deserved 9/11” and won her primary in NY. That’s what the Democrat party has become.

[Caffè Satoshi @CaffeSatoshi]

💀IS THE BITCOIN POWERLAW DEAD?

BITCOIN JUST FELL THROUGH ITS OWN POWER LAW FLOOR.

THE MODEL THAT CALLED EVERY CYCLE JUST MISSED ONE:

TLDR: For the first time in Bitcoin's history, the actual yearly low ($59K) has dropped below the power law model's own predicted floor ($62K). The power law has no mechanism for this to happen, its entire premise is that the floor only rises. The logistic model, which assumes Bitcoin is approaching a ceiling rather than climbing forever, missed by less on both the high and the low this cycle. That doesn't prove logistic is correct twenty years out, no single year can prove that, but it is the first real crack in the power law's track record, and it's worth taking seriously.

THE CHART ABOVE, READ IN ONE LINE

Green bars are what Bitcoin actually did. The dashed blue line is what the power law model said it would do. The solid purple line is what the logistic model said it would do. From 2017 through 2025 the power law line tracks reality closely, that's exactly why so many people trust it. Then in 2026, the green low bar dips under the dashed blue line. That crossing has never happened before in this dataset. It's the whole post in one pixel.

WHAT THE POWER LAW MODEL CLAIMS, AND WHY THAT CLAIM JUST GOT HARDER TO BELIEVE

The power law model says Bitcoin's price rises forever along a curve that decelerates but never flattens, never reverses, and critically, never gets undercut. Its entire selling point versus a model like "Bitcoin could crash and stay down" is that the floor of the curve is supposed to be a hard support level, cycle after cycle the lows have obediently sat above the model's own floor line. That's the data point bulls have pointed to for years: "look, it's never broken the floor."

It just broke the floor. The 2026 yearly low of approximately $59,000 sits below the power law model's own predicted floor of approximately $62,000 for that same year. Not below some bear's pessimistic guess, below the floor that the bullish model itself drew. A model whose core promise is an unbroken floor doesn't get to lose that promise quietly.

To be precise about what this is and isn't: this is one data point, one year, one drawdown. It is not a mathematical disproof of the power law, you cannot falsify a statistical fit with a single observation, and power law proponents will reasonably point out that prior cycles have seen deep drawdowns too before recovering to new highs. The honest claim is narrower than "dead and buried": it's that the power law's specific, repeatedly cited claim, that the modeled floor holds, no longer has a perfect track record. That's a real wound, not a fatal one on its own, but it changes the burden of proof.

WHY LOGISTIC HANDLED THIS CYCLE BETTER

The logistic model also missed 2026, every model fit on historical data will eventually miss, that's what models do. But it missed by less. Its predicted low for 2026 was about $69,600, an overshoot, but the actual price needed a much smaller correction to make logistic look reasonable than it needed to make power law look reasonable. Power law overshot the actual high by 27 percent. Logistic overshot it by about 6 percent. When two models both miss, the one that misses by less is, for that round, the better model, full stop.

This isn't a coincidence, it's the direct consequence of the two models' core assumptions. Power law assumes growth never meaningfully decelerates, just slows its rate of acceleration. Logistic assumes growth is approaching a real ceiling and should be decelerating hard by now. A sharp pullback right as deceleration should be visible is exactly the kind of event that punishes a no-ceiling model and barely dents a model that expected the slowdown already.

Full interactive version of this chart, with every model, every year, hover for exact numbers, at https://t.co/tPPCHjHEND.

Not financial advice. This is a comparison of two extrapolation models against one cycle of real data, not a prediction of what either model will do next.

[The Wolf Of All Streets @scottmelker]

$BTC DAILY

As the critics write the Bitcoin obituaries for the 200th time, Bitcoin quietly sweeps the recent lows and forms a potential double bottom.

A break above the $67,253 neckline would confirm.

More importantly, the "it's over" posts came at the range lows, with nothing actually changing from a technical perspective.

Bitcoin is still sideways in June.

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

Is Michael Saylor about to get a margin call? No. And the reason is more interesting than the rumor, because what he built instead may be harder to escape than one.

A margin call needs a lender who can seize collateral when the price drops. Strategy has none. Its $6.7 billion in debt is convertible notes, the largest tranche due in 2029, with no loan-to-value trigger and no clause that lets anyone take a coin because Bitcoin fell. Saylor learned that in 2022, when he did have a collateralized loan and sweated a liquidation price, then rebuilt the structure so it could never happen again. On the literal question he is right, and the people calling for his liquidation this week do not understand what they see.

But killing the fast death created a slow one almost nobody is pricing. To fund his buying, Saylor issued a mountain of perpetual preferred stock that pays a fixed dividend forever, near 11.5 percent, no matter where Bitcoin trades. That annual bill quadrupled from about $300 million in January to roughly $1.2 billion now, while the cash reserve that pays it fell 38 percent this year to near $1.4 billion, after the company spent $1.5 billion in May retiring debt.

Put those two numbers together and you get the figure that actually matters, and it is not a Bitcoin price. It is a countdown. Dividend coverage, the time the cash can keep paying that bill, has collapsed from more than seven years in early 2026 to between ten and fourteen months, depending on whose math you use. Months, not years.

The market is already pricing it, just not where the rumor is looking. That preferred stock is engineered to sit at $100. Last week it cracked to $82.50, a record 17.5 percent below par. That discount is investors quietly clocking the strain while the timeline screams about a margin call that cannot happen.

There is a clean way out, and it is the one door the structure was built to keep shut. Restoring a safe two years of coverage takes about $2.8 billion, roughly double what Strategy holds, and the fastest path there is to sell Bitcoin. But selling crystallizes a $10.6 billion loss, breaks the never-sell promise that gives the stock its premium, and bleeds the very asset the machine exists to hoard. The exit and the wound are the same cut. He already brushed it, selling 32 coins on June 1 to cover a payment. Thirty-two against more than 847,000 is a rounding error in size and an earthquake in meaning, because the company that swore it would never sell, sold, to pay a dividend.

And there is a second trigger almost no one has read, buried in the fine print. If Saylor ever simply skips a preferred payment to save cash, the missed amount compounds, the senior layer can ratchet its rate higher, a senior miss freezes payments to every junior layer beneath it, and after enough missed quarters those preferred holders can start taking board seats. No one seizes a coin. But control begins migrating to the people he owes. The clock does not just run down. It hands away the keys at the end.

So the honest verdict is the one neither side is shouting. There is no margin call and no imminent bankruptcy. The structure protects him exactly as designed. What it cannot protect him from is a fixed bill that grows while the cash shrinks, where every exit deepens the hole. Sell Bitcoin and break the story. Issue stock into a price near its lowest since 2024 and punish your holders. Skip the dividend and start losing the company by the boardroom.

Saylor did not escape the margin call. He traded a cliff for a clock. A cliff takes you in an afternoon and a stranger pulls the trigger. This clock takes months, and at the end the trigger is pulled by the only two forces he swore would never touch it, his own hand, or the people he owes.

The rumor asks whether someone is about to call his loan. The real question is how many months he can keep paying before he has to sell the dream, dilute the believers, or hand over the board to keep the lights on.

[Secretary Kennedy @SecKennedy]

When doctors diagnose an intellectual or developmental disability, they should do more than deliver a diagnosis—they should provide families with a clear path forward. Too often, families leave that conversation without the guidance, resources, or support they need, and with more questions than answers.

Medical professionals can change that. Refer families to organizations like @bestbuddies and other disability-support networks that connect individuals and families to community, services, and opportunities from day one. No family should have to navigate a diagnosis alone.

[U.S. Senator John Fetterman @SenFettermanPA]

Anti-Israel.

Anti-America.

Anti-Western Civilization.

Why am I the only Democrat in the U.S. Senate that refuses to excuse this or defend any of those self-identified communists?

[The Bitcoin Historian @pete_rizzo_]

FACT: #BITCOIN HAS FALLEN BELOW THE RAINBOW CHART FOR ONLY THE SECOND TIME IN HISTORY

THE FIRST TIME WAS 2022 AT $15,500

NOW IT IS $62,000

BOTH TIMES WERE THE GREATEST BUYING OPPORTUNITIES OF THE DECADE 🔥

BUY THE DIP 🚀

[sunnydecree @sunnydecree]

BREAKING: For the first time in three years, Bitcoin is trading at the support band of the Power Law model.

Why aren't you buying? GM.

[Mark Moss @1MarkMoss]

Don't be the dumb money buying parabolic AI charts while Bitcoin sits cheaper than Nvidia

[Jesse Myers @Croesus_BTC]

Strategy had ~6 months of USD set aside as a dividend cash reserve.

The market did not like that. That was part of why STRC traded down to $82 per share last week.

What did Strategy do?

Calmly raised $335m more of capital, using most of it to increase dividend cash reserve to ~10 months.

Market reaction? STRC now trading at ~$91, and the week has just begun.

If you haven't figured it out yet, Strategy has an incredible capacity to fundraise via selling MSTR or prefs (or raising traditional debt).

They can and will respond to market signals, deploying working capital in ways that strengthen the business and the long-term strategy.

You're a fool to bet against the best Bitcoin balance sheet in the world.

[QUANTUM GUARD ™️ @QuantumGuard17]

🚨 HOLY. SMOKES. A political nuke just went off in the White House briefing room.

REPORTER: Are you referring former President Obama to the DOJ for criminal implications?

DNI TULSI GABBARD: "Correct."

"The evidence we've found and released directly point to President Obama LEADING the manufacturing of this intelligence assessment [of Trump-Russia]."

[Secretary Brooke Rollins @SecRollins]

🚨 The fraud we've uncovered so far is only the tip of the iceberg. 🚨

In states that agreed to work with USDA, we found:

🪦 186,000 deceased individuals tied to benefit rolls

🔁 More than 400,000 duplicate benefit recipients

And that's before we've yet gained access to data from states like California, New York, and Illinois.

In the last several weeks alone, @USDA has helped uncover MASSIVE fraud:

✅ Antonio Bonheur (Boston) — $7M fraud scheme

✅ Abdidwahid Mohamed (Minneapolis) — $1.1M fraud scheme

✅ Krystle Garcia (Baton Rouge) — $126K fraud scheme

✅ Cody Simmons (Baton Rouge) — $126K fraud scheme

Under @VP's leadership of the @WHFraudTF, we're following the data, exposing fraud, and restoring accountability to government.

Our goal is simple: protect taxpayer dollars while strengthening these programs for the families, seniors, children, and vulnerable Americans who rely on them every day.

[Stephen DeMaura @Sdemaura]

Elizabeth Warren lives in one of America’s wealthiest towns—yet thousands of children there go hungry.

Her wealth could feed every hungry child there for 5 years and eradicate local childhood hunger.

[Secretary Kennedy @SecKennedy]

Thank you, Tulsi, for documenting Dr. Fauci's central role in causing the COVID-19 pandemic — among the most consequential crimes in human history.

[Matt Walsh @MattWalshBlog]

1) The US already collects FIVE TRILLION DOLLARS OF TAX REVENUE A YEAR. The idea that you need to collect even more taxes — when you parasites already confiscate the equivalent of Elon’s entire net worth five times over, every year — is lunacy. Stop wasting billions of dollars a month of stupid bullshit. How about that for an idea?

2) We do not need more children in taxpayer funded daycare centers. Our goal should be precisely the opposite of that. We need more women at home raising their kids.

[Hibbs @Prime_Robot]

@Eggplant_Elon The owner of the wallet has other wallets.

[Hugh Hewitt @hughhewitt]

The paragraph that swallows all the other paragraphs of the MOU appears to be #8, which postpones specifics of the removal/destruction of all enriched uranium by 60 days. Everything else boils down to: Iran can export oil and will not molest the Strait.

The other provisions are contingent upon that future agreement. It is, in a phrase, a cease-fire while the parties negotiate for a minimum of 60 days while oil and other trade through the Strait resumes (and presumably while Israel, UAE and our Gulf allies harden their infrastructure and the U.S. conducts intense BDA.)

The editors of @WSJ were prescient yesterday when they wrote:

“A strong nuclear deal isn’t hard to define: Zero uranium enrichment and plutonium reprocessing, no stockpile of enriched uranium, all relevant nuclear facilities, centrifuges and manufacturing sites dismantled, complete disclosure and unrestricted inspections. Iran’s attestation that it doesn’t seek the bomb is meaningless. It has always said that—and done the opposite. A good deal has to remove capabilities.

A promise now to find a solution for the enriched uranium over 60 days means little, unless it specifically commits Iran to removing, diluting or destroying the entire stockpile on a reasonable timetable. Merely disposing of the ‘highly enriched uranium’ doesn’t work when enrichment even to the low-seeming 3.67% is already 70% of the way to weapons-grade.”

The MOU leaves open the fate of the 3.67% stockpile and says nothing about (1) inspections and dismantlement of Pickaxe Mountain and (2) missiles and drones. That’s all still on the table.

The announcement and signing ceremony bring to mind Dr. Kissinger’s “peace is at hand” statement on October 26, 1972, a declaration that was followed by President Nixon’s order for the “Christmas Bombings” two months later.

The post-“peace is at hand” talks to end the war in Vietnam broke down December 13, 1972. About 50 days after “peace was at hand,” the Christmas Bombings began on December 18 and lasted for two weeks. (741 B-52 sorties were dispatched, dropping 20,000 tons of bombs on Hanoi and Haiphong, damaging 80 percent of the electricity supply grid and killing, by Hanoi count, over 1,600 civilians. The United States lost 15 of its B-52s and 11 other aircraft during the attacks.)

The North Vietnamese quickly agreed to resume the talks and signed the final Paris Peace Treaty.

Don’t be surprised by a replay of this sequence but without a final resolution. In this period, the U.S. should be surging every defensive capability it can to our allies while our Gulf allies continue construction of alternative means of oil export.

Crude oil is around $76.5 a barrel at this time so the markets see short term relief and medium term uncertainty. The MOU is neither a disaster nor a breakthrough. It’s a more formal pause.