⟠ JT Nichol 🦇🔊

Ethfinance Daily at /r/ethereum - Big Hugs from KC 🍻
Daily Doots Podcast Host:

[⟠ JT Nichol 🦇🔊 @ProDJKC]

We are certainly not trying to be on a Bankless level but we consistently tell the Ethereum story from the Reddit daily thread at /r/ethereum

That Daly thread gave birth to Bankless in some ways. Both Ryan and David are or were @EVMavericks

https://t.co/8N9qV4lhSV is our podcast

[Leo Lanza | Lanza.eth @leolanza]

It has never been easier to build.

I gave an LLM one prompt and built working mind-mapping software.

That sounds insane, but this is the new reality.

If you have an idea, you can speak it into existence.

Now combine that with Ethereum.

Anyone can build apps, smart contracts, financial products, games, tools, communities, and entire onchain businesses.

And with Mythos coming, builders may soon be able to run high-quality security reviews on their own contracts and software before ever paying for a human audit.

That changes everything.

Lower build costs.
Faster iteration.
Better security.
More experiments.

We are about to see an explosion of new things being built on Ethereum.

[⟠ JT Nichol 🦇🔊 @ProDJKC]

Hanni rocks

[hanniabu.eth (Ξ, α) @hanni_abu]

2 new entries added to https://t.co/kM7ZcM6Twu

ETH Security Floor Model - An independent model estimates the ETH monetary base implied by explicit deterrence and reserve-demand assumptions.

EthereumMaxis - A dashboard on Ethereum, by the numbers that matter.

[⟠ JT Nichol 🦇🔊 @ProDJKC]

@econoar I sold 20 kidneys and bought eth

[⟠ @ryanberckmans]

I was an early fan of BTC. Later, I loved ETH much more due to the benefits of onchain and PoS. Then for years I talked endless trash about BTC. Recently, I expressed gratitude to BTC for holding up the market.

That all being said, the downside risk of BTC we've warned about for many years is looking increasingly realistic.

What is this downside exactly? Well, it starts from the observation that BTC is just a religion with significant structural sell pressure from the physical cost of mining. There is no spoon, it's a fugazi. OK but a huge chunk of the gold valuation, and USD global demand, and many other confidence-based assets are mostly just confidence, so why does it matter that BTC is just a religion?

It matters because of- in no particular order- Saylor, macro, structure of the 2025 bull chart, quantum, security budget, and the current price of BTC.

And all this matters for ETH because of the current delusionally low ETHBTC ratio, which will take time and further realized growth (it's coming) to correct itself. Ethereum is winning and it's not even close. We're in a transitory period where most investors don't yet understand how big onchain is going to be and how (ironically) central that the Eth L1 will be to this global growth story. But this post isn't about ETH, it's about BTC and current market conditions.

Saylor is a real problem because homie told ppl to mortgage their houses, and his generational success story is at risk of cratering because he bought his own top so hard that he pulled his cost basis up to $75,700. His credibility is shot. Do you know how many BTC he has to sell by Q3 2028 if BTCUSD stays *flat* and he doesn't successfully refinance/do some financial wizardry? About ~130k BTC worth $9.1 billion.

Macro is a real problem because *gestures wildly*. Gas prices exert real pressure on the economy. OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX IPOs are gearing up to look more like meme stock cash grabs than measured capital formation. Stock market internals are divergent. Valuations are extremely high.

In 2025, BTC's price chart caused a lot of investors to buy into BTC near highs, as it sustained 100k for 6+ months on the hopes that 150k, 200k were around the corner. Heavyweights like Armstrong called for 1M per coin. Ultimately BTC returned less than 2x vs 2021 pico top, disappointing true believers while long term whales cashed out generational (centuries not decades) wealth at the ~$2.5T valuation. This has left new buyers and the public disaffected, rightly so. It will take a lot of renewed confidence, religious groundwork, and siphoning growth vibes from Ethereum (major historical success factor for BTC) for BTC to regain its September footing, nevermind significant new heights. Crypto cycle and all that. This puts an effective multi-year price cap on BTC that insiders know is real and will cause ppl who buy local highs to continue to get rinsed- you're trading against pros who know this is a wavy bear, you're not frontrunning the public... unless you intend to frontrun them by years which most don't.

Quantum is a major problem for BTC because it's a stake into the heart of the religion. In practical terms, it reinforces that BTC is years away from regaining highs because serious buyers know that BTC isn't as immaculate as it seemed last year. They know that quantum meaningfully increases the odds that BTC never recovers to highs.

BTC's security budget is like a baby quantum: severe problem on the horizon, easy to discount, barely affects. But some people know its real and that adds up. Smallest factor but yet another card stacked against BTC this season/year.

The current price of BTC is that people are still paying $71,500 real American Dollars for 1 magic internet money coin. The valuation is still $1.432 trillion. 45% off ATH is still 55% on. If BTC wants to tumble, it has far to fall.

Nobody knows if BTC will see much lower lows. But the deck is currently stacked against BTC in a way that hasn't been the case at any other time in its history. Who cares if BTC falls 5%, that's noise. The real question is will we see a rout to 50k's or 30k's.

The challenge here is we're in a bear-a-thon, a bear marathon. If BTC avoids a crash this month or this summer, that's nice. The above factors are measured in quarters and years, not weeks and months.

Such a crash- this season, later this year, early next year- would clearly and unfortunately bring ETH down with it. The ETHBTC ratio isn't going to magically shoot up during the moment of the crisis.

Should a very serious BTC crash occur, after the crash, investors will be left asking themselves- is an ETH valuation this low justified? The efficient market hypothesis is more dead than alive in tradfi. In crypto it's science fiction. Markets don't know. The market price is just today's news. People who buy ETH this year will end up doing extremely well as Ethereum grows to global ubiquity and BTC's structurally bearish factors cause investors to re-rate the value of the onchain story overall vs BTC.

In short, we are again strapped onto this rollercoaster. Much is outside ETH's and our control. The community has been focused on stuff we can control: CROPS and growth. LFG. We'll be above $20k and multi trillion in due course. Ethereum

[⟠ JT Nichol 🦇🔊 @ProDJKC]

@Alberto51725371 @leolanza Leo goes vertical

[⟠ JT Nichol 🦇🔊 @ProDJKC]

@DefiWimar This is good for Ethereum

[0xflorent.eth @0xFlorent_]

First white-hat exploit on Ethereum: I unlocked 1,003.62
Ξ ($2,000,000) trapped in a 2016 ICO smart contract
for 9 years.

The 48 original investors can now claim their funds.

[⟠ JT Nichol 🦇🔊 @ProDJKC]

@pbrody that’s fine as long as they don’t start getting into the trappings of blood guilt.

[⟠ JT Nichol 🦇🔊 @ProDJKC]

@TrustlessState ahh come on please don't do this stuff.

[trent.eth @trent_vanepps]

https://t.co/GajUKQC8li

[⟠ JT Nichol 🦇🔊 @ProDJKC]

Why the outrage over David @TrustlessState selling his ETH? Is it really that serious? 😂 #CTDrama #Ethereum

[⟠ JT Nichol 🦇🔊 @ProDJKC]

@TrustlessState Thanks bud. Cheers to you.

[⟠ JT Nichol 🦇🔊 @ProDJKC]

@easygwei @econoar Decentralization is +1. Now more than ever. That's the value prop first and foremost. I agree.

[⟠ JT Nichol 🦇🔊 @ProDJKC]

Can AI agents manage your payments? Explore the future of on-chain transactions! #ETHEREUM #Blockchain #AI
https: https://t.co/7zJe9gXbI6 also here: https://t.co/5JIqYyTPtC

[Ethereum Foundation @ethereumfndn]

0/ Clear signing is now live.

An open standard to end blind signing, making human-readable transactions default.

This effort brings a major UX and Security upgrade to transaction signing on Ethereum.

[⟠ JT Nichol 🦇🔊 @ProDJKC]

@TrustlessState Need you back at the firepit sometime

[⟠ JT Nichol 🦇🔊 @ProDJKC]

@leolanza Let's get this done. Would be an honor.

[⟠ JT Nichol 🦇🔊 @ProDJKC]

@Bankless @RyanSAdams @TrustlessState wishing you all the best Bankless.