Edward Malca

financial economist at Baruch College NYC.

[Edward Malca @ProfessorMalca]

It is time to be concerned that almost everyone in the Markets are ebullient.
Risk is at best secondary and close to non existent. Remember before a financial fall everything is wonderful!
@greg_ip @WSJ #stocks #bonds #risk #ft #markets

[Edward Malca @ProfessorMalca]

It is time to recognize this euphoria in the stock market cannot continue forever, even with A.I., good earnings and stock returns averaging near 20% since 2023. Remember,
Perfection does not last forever. @WSJ @BaruchCollege @FT
#risk #stocks #nvidia

[Edward Malca @ProfessorMalca]

#Stocks are poised and priced for perfection. Unfortunately perfection does not exist. P/E ratios and #risk are near record levels. A wise investor would smile and reduce risk.@WSJ @BaruchCollege @nytimes #FT @bonds

[Edward Malca @ProfessorMalca]

#Hedge-funds have $3.5 trillion in assets and # pensions and others are putting more #money into them since 2007. Moreover, their return 13%,highest since 2013, is still below S&P 500. The performance and management fees are highest in a decade.
Take this #risk warning! @WSJ@ft

[Edward Malca @ProfessorMalca]

It is time to recognize that #stocks and their P/E ratios are extremely above average thus very susceptible. The market is on precipice of significant negative adjustment. Maybe this week, next month or by February? Just a warning! @WSJ#Baruch #nvidia #tesla @nytimes @FT #crash

[Edward Malca @ProfessorMalca]

Now that the government #shutdown is over one month and thousands of critical government #workers are not being paid,it is time that our #Congress not be paid either. If no #paycheck was received by Congress the shutdown would have been over.@WSJ @BaruchCollege @nypost @nytimes

[Edward Malca @ProfessorMalca]

It is time to realize that the best asset may be over priced. The #stock market is not only fully priced but beyond. It assumes that #earnings and outlook continues in perpetuity. This fantasy is dangerous. Be prepared do not be greedy take your profits and Smile! @WSJ #bubble

[Edward Malca @ProfessorMalca]

The #Fed has gone from the “scares reserve system” to paying bank reserves over $1.45 trillion a year for monetary policy. The new system was a temporary response to Quantitative Easing (QE) which developed into ill conceived policy. @WSJ @nytimes @nypost @BaruchCollege #rates

[Edward Malca @ProfessorMalca]

The #StockMarket is very fragile since we are in a #structural change in the #economy. Deficits are rising, p/e’s are near historic highs and unappreciated #risk is significant.
Increase your portfolio with 5% -6% corporates to reduce risk. @WSJ @nytimes @jasonzweigwsj #nvidia

[Edward Malca @ProfessorMalca]

It is now clear that the Federal #deficit is now public policy for both parties. The trillions of dollars of deficits will only stop when investors demand 6% - 10% or more for U.S. paper thus making it politically unacceptable. #Bond #risk is rising rapidly. @WSJ @invest @nytimes

[Edward Malca @ProfessorMalca]

The battle between #Trump and the #Fed is one that even if Trump wins he loses. More importantly the #dollar loses and the U.S. as the premier financial system has a longer term chronic decline. If
he wants disruption this work but at an unacceptable cost! @WSJ @nytimes @FT

[Edward Malca @ProfessorMalca]

@elerianm @FT We are in new financial Territory and as such these influence of events never happened before and outcome is almost random. There is a point, unknown till it happens, at which the consensus viewpoint shifts because of all the added unknowns and thus risk. We may be near!

[Edward Malca @ProfessorMalca]

“It is the best of times it is the worst of times…”. It could be great or terrible but definitely disruptive.The #stockmarket can easily be 15% lower or higher by Friday, but no one knows which. Opportunities for great failure and success abound. @WSJ #Trump #recession @greg_ip

[Edward Malca @ProfessorMalca]

The S&P 500 is down 5.3% since the beginning of 2025 and the markets are concerned. Remember, in the years 2023 and 2024 it increased almost 50%. Going down 15% - 25% is the real worry for the #market and this may occur in 2025-2026. Adjust your #portfolios. @WSJ @nytimes #stocks

[Edward Malca @ProfessorMalca]

The NewJersey transit train’s window are so filthy that one cannot see the station signs at all but also cannot see the sun. In order to help our environment trains should play an important role. Now that role is negative. @nytimes #CleanEnergy @WSJ @newjerseytransit #usatoday

[Edward Malca @ProfessorMalca]

Now that the #stock market is up over 20% in each of the last two years and up for 2025, what does that mean?
P/E’s at almost historic highs with historic high uncertainty with #Trump. The #Vix and risk should be enormous, but it is not. @WSJ @BaruchCollege @nytimes #markets #FT

[Edward Malca @ProfessorMalca]

The #price of #homes will only fall in price when the sellers have a greater fear that home prices will fall than paying higher #interest rates on a #mortgage. They do not want to “miss the boat.” The supply is low not that the demand is so high.
@WSJ @nytimes @BaruchCollege @FT

[Edward Malca @ProfessorMalca]

@elerianm Unfortunately much of the official data is being accepted with dubious value due to significant revsions in future months. This may be due to the seasonal adjustments which we may not fully understand the post pandemic economy and the effect of millions of illegal immigrants.

[Edward Malca @ProfessorMalca]

Not to discount the #Trump good economic “feelings” the #markets have done that already. The stock market is poised for large a correction as well as the the # bitcoin euphoria is quite over done. It is time to take some winnings and celebrate! @WSJ @nytimes #stocks

[Edward Malca @ProfessorMalca]

First, Happy New Year!
May this type of new beginning inspire us to think big and inspire us to appreciate what we have and yes it is not perfect. It will never be perfect but could be improved. To improvement and appreciation. Happy New Year! @WSJ @nytimes @BaruchCollege