Propertyverce

Helping Australians make confident property decisions.
Research • Strategy • Economics

[Propertyverce @Propertyverce]

@AvidCommentator When tradies and business owners can't follow the logic, the RBA has a communication problem as much as an inflation problem. Trust in the institution matters for how policy transmits through confidence and spending decisions.

[Propertyverce @Propertyverce]

@IFM_Economist Discretionary spending pulling back while fuel costs rise is the household squeeze playing out in the data. Less room for big purchases when non-discretionary costs absorb more of the budget.

[Propertyverce @Propertyverce]

@FinancialReview 15-year high cash rate meeting the largest house price falls on record. The RBA has made its inflation priority explicit. The wealth effect and financial stability consequences now play out through spring.

[Propertyverce @Propertyverce]

@cmkusher 50bp into the largest house price falls in Australian history and the highest household debt in the developed world would have sent a message about inflation and a different message about financial stability.

[Propertyverce @Propertyverce]

@Scutty Markets pricing a cash rate above 5% changes the property calculus entirely. Serviceability buffers, borrowing capacity, and vendor price expectations all need to reset against a ceiling that was not in the base case three months ago.

[Propertyverce @Propertyverce]

@Mark_Graph Starting lower post-pandemic meant more catching up to do. Australia is now paying that cost with a longer and steeper tightening cycle than peers who moved earlier and faster.

[Propertyverce @Propertyverce]

@bowtiedstocks Highest household debt in the world meeting the highest policy rate in the developed world is not a soft landing setup. The transmission from rate hikes to household stress is faster and deeper in Australia than almost anywhere else.

[Propertyverce @Propertyverce]

@samstrades SEQ was the last major market to peak and is now correcting from the most stretched valuations relative to its income base. The Olympic demand narrative absorbed a lot of that excess.

[Propertyverce @Propertyverce]

"Fallen in most capital cities" is a significant shift in RBA language. Previous statements described softening or easing. Acknowledging falls across most capitals while still hiking signals the Board has made a deliberate choice to prioritise inflation over the wealth effect. The minutes will be worth reading closely.

[Propertyverce @Propertyverce]

@tompanos Second highest policy rate in the developed world while housing values are falling at a record pace is an unusual combination. Most central banks tighten to cool asset prices. The RBA is now tightening into a correction that is already historic in scale.

[Propertyverce @Propertyverce]

@SpachusAus 4.60% heading into spring means the traditional volume uplift faces a direct serviceability headwind. Vendors pricing for a spring recovery may need to recalibrate before listings hit the market.

[Propertyverce @Propertyverce]

@TheKouk The RBA acknowledging housing uncertainty while hiking anyway is a bet that the wealth effect stays contained. At this scale of correction, that is a significant assumption.

[Propertyverce @Propertyverce]

@ShaneOliverAMP Discretionary weakness alongside negative wealth effects from falling prices is worth watching closely, that combination is exactly what would argue against a second hike in November.

[Propertyverce @Propertyverce]

The #RBA hiked again. Sydney's down 7.1% from peak, #Melbourne down 6.5%, and now #Brisbane, #Perth and #Adelaide are cooling too. First home buyer demand fell 20% YoY despite budget support meant to help them in. Victoria's unemployment is the clear outlier, and pressure is spreading to other states. Confirm your borrowing capacity. Don't assume it.

Read the full breakdown below:
https://t.co/uCpCCp7IfD

[Propertyverce @Propertyverce]

📊 Rental Demand · Demand Score 91/100

National vacancy 0.8% · Perth 0.4% · WA rents up 11.4% YoY · New listings down 18% YoY

The rental supply crisis is deepening. Perth is the tightest capital in the country and new listings are falling while demand keeps climbing. Landlords are repricing at every lease renewal and tenants have nowhere to go.

Book a Clarity Session at https://t.co/jbEhRCncYj

#AustralianProperty #RentalCrisis #PerthProperty #PropertyInvesting #RentalDemand

[Propertyverce @Propertyverce]

@cmkusher Lower deposits ease the savings hurdle but raise loan to value risk, which matters in a falling market like ours, so worth watching how the UK handles the downside.

[Propertyverce @Propertyverce]

@FinancialReview Public friction between Treasury and the RBA matters less for tomorrow's decision than for guidance on November, which is what will shape borrowing capacity over spring.

[Propertyverce @Propertyverce]

@bowtiedstocks A 5.35% cash rate would be roughly a full point above where it sits after tomorrow's expected hike, worth checking what inflation path that forecast assumes.

[Propertyverce @Propertyverce]

@News24Aust Falling prices haven't fixed this because borrowing capacity has fallen faster, which is why the sense of being locked out persists even as headline prices ease.

[Propertyverce @Propertyverce]

@GreenTyler27 With this much certainty priced in, the RBA's guidance on November matters more for borrowing capacity than the hike itself.