Cameron Kusher

Director of Kusher Consulting. Independent property research and consulting. Partnering with the best in property.

[Cameron Kusher @cmkusher]

I’ve spent 25 years researching and commenting on the Australian residential property market, working with some of the sector’s biggest names.

Now, I’m offering my expertise directly to businesses and individuals through Kusher Consulting. 1/

[Cameron Kusher @cmkusher]

The population debate should actually be nuanced but it isn't.

I think aspirationally we could and perhaps should have a population of 100 million people but no one talks about how we get there, what that looks like, where everyone is supposed to live and what infrastructure is required.

And because those conversations aren't happening I think an increasing number of people have come to the conclusion (myself included) that the current rate of population growth is too high given the lack of housing and infrastructure being delivered.

[Dr Liz Allen @DrDemography]

No, Dick, projections for 2100 show Australia’s population will reach 43.1 million not your ridiculous figure. Please stop with the scaremongering. https://t.co/S5GWZJDdH5

[Cameron Kusher @cmkusher]

I am no political strategist, far from it. But if Labor really wants to help FHB they should lean massively into (and figure out and announce how it will work) the 100,000 new homes specifically built for first home buyers they announced last budget.

In fact, they should significantly increase that number because 100,000 FHB represents less than one year of the volume we already see.

Their focus on these changes to CGT and NG as being about first home buyers and younger people are bogus because a lot of people that are aspiring FHB will want to become investors in the future, or already invest in assets outside of property.
https://t.co/5dM7D1sbmF

[Cameron Kusher @cmkusher]

The FWC granting a 4.75% increase in wages, another increase above inflation when inflation is already well above the 2.5% target is insanity.

[Cameron Kusher @cmkusher]

I think some of the estimates of how much these changes to NG and the CGT discount will hit prices are undercooking things. Admittedly the 30% min CGT was never modelled neither was the availability on CGT and NG still being available on new properties.

Anyway, I expect that overall investment in housing will be lower. It can’t be maintained at current levels when your options to purchase are dramatically reduced and you are being pushed to invest in stock that is often more expensive like-for-like to established stock.

Even if you invest in new housing, the pool of buyers when you come to sell is lower. A new investment property is only new once so upon resale it is much less attractive to potential investors. I think investors will have to keep this in mind.

The tricky part in all of this is not everyone that rents is a buyer right now so you can’t simply replace all investment with owner-occupiers. Some will struggle to sell these assets, see Victoria the past few years.

As a result I can see prices falling by more than what has been modelled, especially in those areas which have a high volume of investors and are low yielding.

Lower established prices will make it hard for new supply to stack-up as well, especially given I’d expect the overall volume of investment to fall.

The way in which this policy may be more of a success would be if governments could assist with the housing feasibility costs. That means looking at finance, more investment in infrastructure and reasses the cost of new development.

How do we lower upfront costs, reduce build costs, alleviatte skills shortages and approve new housing quicker in order to boost feasibility and make prices of new housing accessible to more buyers is the essential question policy-makers should be asking themselves.

[Cameron Kusher @cmkusher]

@peter_tulip More investors are purchasing new inner city properties than greenfield. Greenfield is more likely to be purchased by owner occupiers

[Cameron Kusher @cmkusher]

Somewhat surprising is the average loan size for investors constructing or purchaing a new dwelling is smaller than the average loan size for purchase of an existing dwelling.

Anyone have any theories as to why this would be the case?

Not the average loan size of purchase of a new dwelling as usually been larger than purchase of existing dwelling but construction of new dwellings is not.

[Cameron Kusher @cmkusher]

@Larryjamieson_ The funny thing is most of the industry (buyers agents/advocates) can’t stand him either because he gives the industry such a bad name and is essentially providing financial advice - and getting away with it.

[Cameron Kusher @cmkusher]

Not one generation has a higher % of respondents saying the budget will be good for them than those that say it will be bad.

[Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 @AvidCommentator]

And people told me I was wrong about the budget going down like a lead balloon...

Chart: AFR

[Cameron Kusher @cmkusher]

@nessiejones22 They aren’t jaded enough, yet. Still very idealistic.

[Cameron Kusher @cmkusher]

The guy who has repeatedly said One Nation was only a problem for the Coalition has published his latest poll showing One Nation are ahead. What’s clear is whatever Coalition and Labor are offering the electorate, the electorate ain’t buying any more. Who can blame them really?

[Kos Samaras @KosSamaras]

Our latest Australian Financial Review, RedBridge and Accent Research National Poll.

The two-party system most Australians grew up with is gone. The real contest, unless something changes by 2028, now runs between Labor and One Nation, and the Coalition is a spectator in the stands….eating donuts.

The primary vote tells the story plainly. One Nation 31. Labor 28. The Coalition a deep third on 20. Labor still winning on 2PP.

The favourability numbers explain how we got here. This is an electorate sorting itself into camps that barely speak to each other. Albanese is anchored in the Labor base and underwater almost everywhere else. Hanson is the mirror image, locked in with her own bloc and toxic with the other side. Two leaders, each loved and loathed in roughly equal measure, each unable to reach across the line.

But the damage is not symmetrical, and that is the part the major parties keep missing. Labor has bled support to the minor parties (others), voters drifting left and sideways. The Coalition has bled something heavier, straight into One Nation, even after the Budget!!!. Look at where Hanson is net positive: Liberal voters, LNP voters, the Coalition’s own right flank. She is not just nibbling at the edges of their base but having nice pizza slice bites at it.

More details below.

[Cameron Kusher @cmkusher]

@88888sAccount In fairness outside of late 24/early 25 they are the highest rates since Nov 2011. You have a decade plus of first time home owners who have never known rates to be anything like this.

[Cameron Kusher @cmkusher]

Howard and Costello got it wrong but we then decided to have the Gillard/Rudd and a term of the Albo government do nothing about it, waiting 27 years to make a change.

[GemmaTognini @GemmaTognini]

In a big old bucket of embarrassing crap this Minister has said, I think we finally have a winner 👇🏼

[Cameron Kusher @cmkusher]

@PinguCapital Have a look at the RBA chart on dynamic LVRs even with a 20% fall the vast majority of ppl are still in positive equity.

[Cameron Kusher @cmkusher]

A moderate decline in house prices after how much they have risen in recent decades isn’t an issue at a macro level in fact it is probably a good thing. The issue is the highly indebted, low equity recent FHB that have been lured into the market backs by taxpayers.

[Cameron Kusher @cmkusher]

Because they have never lasted anywhere close to how long the price rise periods have.

[Cameron Murray @DrCameronMurray]

Someone said after seeing this chart:
“I don’t remember any of those price declines”

[Cameron Kusher @cmkusher]

@yinshen86 Interest rates haven’t increased 75 bps because of the war they’ve risen because inflation was never back into target range and was rising through the second-half of last year

[Cameron Kusher @cmkusher]

Lucky the government lured in all those FHB last year with 5% deposits when they thought the interest rate cycle was heading lower.

[Antipodean Macro @AntipodeanMacro]

Altogether now...

[Cameron Kusher @cmkusher]

@JustinJMilligan Maybe if I had access to a conveyancer that had sales experience I would be keen on that.

[Cameron Kusher @cmkusher]

In my first post about selling my home I've provided a bit of a review on the process of selecting our selling agent.
We spoke with three agents, one of which is overwhelmingly the top agent locally for volume and two others.

We didn't choose the volume agent we chose a lower volume agent volume who had a unique pitch and we felt was going to be more responsive to our needs.

You never know if you've picked the right agent until you sell but we are happy with our selection so far.

https://t.co/45VlNS45Gd

[Cameron Kusher @cmkusher]

@JustinJMilligan Probably not. I would think conveyancers are good at the process of selling a home I doubt they are particularly good at selling and negotiating.