Blackbox

Nobody

[Tony Simons @tonysimons_]

https://t.co/isdUS9uFcK

[Blackbox @QSR_CG]

White House MCP server?

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

US Treasury Secretary Bessent: With government stakes in companies, we are trying to create market signals

[Blackbox @QSR_CG]

对这位校友的观点持保留意见，首先目前是500亿， https://t.co/Gz8SKQwQb5
其次最后没IPO之前的IPO价格都是虚的，完全可以参照deepseek的估值的成长曲线，融资用途可以参考智谱的资金使用情况，最后炒到1000+亿美元轻轻松松。从痛苦的投流增用户回到模型突破，Kimi值得。

[GeLun Ding @gelunding]

Kimi K3可能真的会戳破大模型泡沫。Moonshot AI刚刚宣布，计划在未来6个月内赴港上市。不过，它的目标估值只有约 300亿美元。这一估值从两个方面动摇了当前AI的投资逻辑。

第一，300亿美元的估值，让几乎所有其他大模型公司的估值都显得站不住脚。 OpenAI 和Anthropic都希望IPO时达到1万亿美元市值；智谱AI的市值一度接近1300亿美元，如今也回落到约600亿美元。有人会说，这是因为ChatGPT和Claude的收入更高。但我认为，这并不足以支撑如此巨大的估值溢价。

我看到的趋势是，大语言模型真正有价值的应用场景其实并不多。一旦某家公司做出了一个成功的AI产品，其他公司很快就会推出一模一样的产品，最终又回到价格战。以AI编程为例，这是目前少数真正能够创造可观收入的赛道。但如今几乎所有头部AI实验室都推出了自己的Coding Agent，而且体验越来越接近，几乎没有公司能够收取明显的溢价。

第二个问题，是算力收入并没有得到资本市场的认可。阿里巴巴目前持有Moonshot AI约35%的股份，因此Moonshot的大部分算力需求都会流向阿里云。2026财年，阿里云收入达到229亿美元，相比上一财年的163亿美元增长了34%。然而，在这段时间里，阿里巴巴股价几乎没有变化。原因我认为有两点。

第一，对于一家市值约3000亿美元的公司来说，多赚几十亿美元收入，投资者根本不觉得有多大的意义。第二，这些公司赚到的钱，很快又全部投入到AI Infra CAPEX中。至少目前来看，云计算收入的增长速度，远远赶不上Infra CAPEX的增长速度。这一点在美国hyperscalers身上体现得更加明显。以微软为例，尽管其云业务收入增长了40%，但过去一年微软股价仍然下跌了20%以上。

这意味着，AI大模型公司的竞争重点需要从大语言模型竞赛，转向AI 应用竞赛。说白了，它们需要在更多垂直场景中打造出像Claude Code这样的爆款AI应用，而不是继续单纯比拼模型本身。接下来最大的挑战，就是为大语言模型找到更多真正有价值的应用场景。

[Blackbox @QSR_CG]

Tried Qwen plan earlier this year. The agentic ability sucks. It seems Alibaba didn’t connect its product to its core model family, which used to lead the open source world..

[Mike @ztb8888]

Qwen 3.8 Max is out. The $6 plan will probably give you the best value with the current 10x usage promotion.

Instead of raising prices like GLM 5.2, Alibaba is doing the right thing to capture market shares.

[Blackbox @QSR_CG]

Grok 5 3T will be a beast as Cursor team doesn't need to extend composer family.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Grok 4.5 is arguably #1 when taking speed and cost into account

[Blackbox @QSR_CG]

@gamesblazer06 Did you subscribe the faster access on his truth social handle?

[Blackbox @QSR_CG]

legendary

[Jim Cramer @jimcramer]

Nasdaq wanted SpaceX for the 100, well it sure got its wish

[Blackbox @QSR_CG]

@BankofVol locked a coding plan last night…

[Blackbox @QSR_CG]

@gamesblazer06 It seems bubbles are not just ridiculous in AI..

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

BREAKING: New Mexico says US Justice Department is hindering the probe of former Epstein ranch, per Reuters

[Blackbox @QSR_CG]

Old enough to remember the trick

[LongConvexity @LONGCONVEXITY]

That old trick...

[Blackbox @QSR_CG]

@dmwlsw Dippers win eventually

[Blackbox @QSR_CG]

@gamesblazer06 why not? They can set up a party for spaceX employee: https://t.co/XL5Urf7Ggx

[Barstool Sports @barstoolsports]

Imagine you’re on your morning commute in NYC and you meet the Viking Row head on

[Blackbox @QSR_CG]

If OpenAI thinks nerfing models 80% of the time works for its subscription, it will lose more market shares sooner than it expected....

[Blackbox @QSR_CG]

@prpl8 @DannyDayan5 Always winning without tears

[Blackbox @QSR_CG]

wow

[RoboStrategy @RoboStrategy]

RoboStrategy has raised ~$28.9M through private share issuance

Completed through private placements with institutional investors at a weighted average price of $36.28

Full press release here:

https://t.co/yYXXDmGdKH

[Blackbox @QSR_CG]

@ericjang11 Could I get a ticket for your talk?

[Blackbox @QSR_CG]

@gamesblazer06 Adobe as well?

[Blackbox @QSR_CG]

@CarlBagdaddy @StockMarketNerd Not exactly. Net interest income instead of gross interest income would be part of bank's revenue. It depends on SOFI's positioning of its own assets/liabilities.