QuackCap

If it walks like a portfolio manager... Tech/Consumer, soft spot for gaming. No investment advice

[QuackCap @QuackQuackCap]

$BGO.L Bango is a 🇬🇧 Fintech. The company has a niche payment business, and a superbundling SAAS, each worth more than mcap of GBP 60m.
Reasons for share price weakness include forced seller (done by now) and lack of clear segment disclosure clarifying the SOTP value (coming).

[QuackCap @QuackQuackCap]

@Schen0815 @mackey_dav38900 2g energy $2gb has signed multiple DC contracts on 5MW modules

[QuackCap @QuackQuackCap]

@stone_flanders @aleabitoreddit I was being conservative with FY27, I think!

[QuackCap @QuackQuackCap]

@PhilipJohanss13 Totally agree, 8k now and peak will be probably over weekend…

[QuackCap @QuackQuackCap]

$DIB expect very strong results on Nov 13
🧩Wuchang: 20 gross from Steam (gamalytic, upside: might not account for steam keys) + 8m from Game Pass + 10m from PS/xbox = 38 gross = 28m net.
🧩15m budget to recoup, 25% royalty => 15+13*75%=25m gp
🧩Rest of business breakeven

[QuackCap @QuackQuackCap]

Of course there was a clear typo in my preview: 25m expected Wuchang gross profit + “rest of business breakeven” means 25m EBITDA, not EBIT, as I mistakenly wrote 🤦. It is obvious, so I hope I’ve not misled anyone, but my apologies, will read my posts more carefully from now on.

[QuackCap @QuackQuackCap]

$DIB results slightly below my expectations (EBITDA 22m vs. 25m expected), mainly on a tad higher royalty rate. Still very strong quarter for 160m mcap and weak stock YTD. Wuchang is clearly a commercial success 💪.

Assetto Corsa Rally 8k ccu, 82% positives, looks very nice 😊

[QuackCap @QuackQuackCap]

@PhilipJohanss13 Yes, and I think very few investors noticed it so far. #320 in wishlist after 3 weeks and little marketing effort looks strong 💪

[QuackCap @QuackQuackCap]

@joinyellowbrick joinquackcap in this earnings play 😄 - it’s a Italian gaming play, what can possibly go wrong 🙃: https://t.co/6qXFLos841

[QuackCap @QuackQuackCap]

$DIB expect very strong results on Nov 13
🧩Wuchang: 20 gross from Steam (gamalytic, upside: might not account for steam keys) + 8m from Game Pass + 10m from PS/xbox = 38 gross = 28m net.
🧩15m budget to recoup, 25% royalty => 15+13*75%=25m gp
🧩Rest of business breakeven

[QuackCap @QuackQuackCap]

$ALDNE - very good decision about going back to work-for-hire. $NFLX as first customer - not too bad!

De-risked story: B&R conservatively written off, Aphelion partnered/written off, P14 will be most likely partnered too + steady cash flow from $NFLX.

22m net cash vs 11m mcap

[QuackCap @QuackQuackCap]

@justin_theodora Pretty confident budget was close to 15. In my previous post about Akros research is the reasoning behind this assumption.

[QuackCap @QuackQuackCap]

$DIB update
1. Wuchang back >40% positives - enables featuring on Steam. 70% positives yesterday. It seems that quick patching helps, even if improvements are not that meaningful.
Reviews ex-China were 60-70% from start, so that is probably fair level without review bombing.👇🧵

[QuackCap @QuackQuackCap]

3. Short interest is 2.2%, up twice from last week.

[QuackCap @QuackQuackCap]

2. I estimate ~800k net units sold = 20m net revenue vs. 15m budget. Adding 8m gamepass and subtract 25% royalties yields 10m gross profit already. Amazing financial performance, but also a huge lost opportunity- with good reviews the game could have sold so much more. 👇

[QuackCap @QuackQuackCap]

@10_ch_10 Has it ever been sold on regional steam china page? From what I understand to be sold there you need Chinese ISBN, which 505 cannot obtain.

[QuackCap @QuackQuackCap]

$DIB Wuchang update
❌ <20% of steam positives. Bad optimization + questionable discounts/offers that made some early pre-order buyers feel tricked. This is review bombing and score will improve, but some damage has been done.
✅ 114k peak looks strong and confirms good sales

[QuackCap @QuackQuackCap]

$DIB update
❌Profit warning FY25: EBIT <-10m vs ~-1m expected due to 8m write-offs
✅Wuchang 77 OpenCritic, 75 metacritic - enough to not spoil sales
✅FY25 Net debt 20m vs. 30m guided before. Flat vs 3Q, likely helped by Wuchang pre-sales and maybe shift in capex timing?

[QuackCap @QuackQuackCap]

For reference @alineaanalytics piece is here, great analysis, highly recommended: https://t.co/XMkfqD9Yjr

[QuackCap @QuackQuackCap]

New Akros report on $DIB. Their assumptions on the economics of Wuchang (which clearly come from the company because this analyst doesn’t have industry expertise) are in line with my expectations: only 25% royalty and 15m budget. This is better than @alineaanalytics predicted.