Quercus

Vol PM at a multi-strat. Thoughts are my own. Not investment advice. Let's see how this X thing works.

[Quercus @Quercus45]

Been trading vol across regimes you only read about in Taleb footnotes. If you think VIX=volatility, this page isn’t for you. Finally trying X because the loudest voices here rarely have risk on.

[Quercus @Quercus45]

Someone needs to teach the guy about Vanna, @VolSignals

[Quercus @Quercus45]

@VolSignals

[Quercus @Quercus45]

@VolSignals So how do you go from feedback loop to rapid reversals? Are you assuming some other flow (dip buying or vol selling) comes in to break the loop?

[Quercus @Quercus45]

@VolSignals Looks like a decent call so far... although predicting these things is something I typically stay away from, it does feel a bit like we are heading this way.

[Quercus @Quercus45]

Profit taking ;)

[david @sdav1986]

How did dispersion PMs actually do on the back of the recent collapse in single-name vol?

variants of the strategy I simulate gets smoked giving back a good chunk of YTD P&L.

Yet somehow, every guy at the pod shops tells you they “did fine.”

I get there are a lot of bells & whistles around the trade, but… what am I missing?

[Quercus @Quercus45]

@dampedspring Maybe. I just call it how I see it, mate.

[Quercus @Quercus45]

If someone giving you investment advice says he is despising the very sector he recently called a bubble on, you should probably stop listening. "Emotions" and "bubble calls" are two things that generally do not make you money in this game. Might as well listen to Jim

[Andy Constan @dampedspring]

By far the sector that I have most despised since calling a bubble
is the neo cloud data centers and $ORCL, $IREN, $CRWV and $NBIS There is literally no pie for them. But jeez. I may have to degen long today.

[Quercus @Quercus45]

Running fancy risk modelling and scenario analysis doesn't really help if your trading strategy is "when in trouble, double".

[Quercus @Quercus45]

Giving a lecture on risk management days after blowing up your fund 😂

[Quercus @Quercus45]

@_og_ts To hedge an increase in equity correlation? What I certainly would not do is reverse dispersion (ask Benn).. Generally, I prefer to keep it simple and just buy VIX calls. For cross-asset corr you can still put on interesting dual/triple digis (e.g., SPX/GLD/TLT)

[Quercus @Quercus45]

Anyone want a short thread on some good RV opportunities in the exo space?

[Quercus @Quercus45]

@_og_ts I like spot up, vol up trades right now. Var vs KO Var if you can manage it is quite interesting.

[Quercus @Quercus45]

@SowingAlphaSeed I have seen it. Its good

[Quercus @Quercus45]

I mean there is an actual dispersion index these days (DSPX). COR3M is not a very good proxy

[Noel Smith @NoelSmith]

As a rough proxy for a traditional dispersion p&l you can look at the $COR3M, the lower the better.

[Quercus @Quercus45]

@firstlawofvol Appreciated.

[Quercus @Quercus45]

The fact that these so-called derivative experts, who love lecturing people on this platform, have been completely taken to the cleaners playing against "crowded dispersion" this year is not nearly talked about enough

[Quercus @Quercus45]

@fute_nukem @tradelots Dispersion trades index vs single stock vol. It is popularly traded by selling index and buying stocks (index vol is elevated from hedgers, ss vol is cheap from structured products). Some (like qvr) have been saying this is a crowded trade and suggested trading other way.

[Quercus @Quercus45]

wonder why....

[Quercus @Quercus45]

Looking forward to a thread on how selling AMD and QCOM vol against SPX vol is not a good RV trade even if it "screens" attractive.

[Quercus @Quercus45]

If you're not obsessive, you'll remain mediocre.

[Kris Sidial🇺🇸 @Ksidiii]

This game has transformed my life, my family’s life, my friends’ lives, and even the lives of my future grandchildren. For that, I am eternally grateful to God for the success He has given me.

At the same time, make no mistake, this game is one of the most cancerous and dangerous in the world. It can ruin and cripple you financially, socially, psychologically, and emotionally in ways you cannot imagine.

If you are playing this game at the highest level, not casually investing, you have to be willing and aching to answer its call at every second of the day. And honestly, monetary advancement alone is not enough to keep you in it. Something has to be socially wrong with you to be obsessed in a way that is difficult to even characterize. You have to be obsessed with solving this puzzle every single day.

If that is not you, it is probably a better choice to avoid it entirely. Very similar to mishandling an AK-47, small mistakes in this game can be life altering.

For my fellow lunatics, another day, and into the fray we go. Blessings and love your way 🫡

[Quercus @Quercus45]

Maybe, just maybe... they weren't that smart to begin with?

[jbulltard @jbulltard1]

We’re losing benn and Andy within a week, when does cem throw in the towel? The whole gang of “smartest guys around” are getting their teeth kicked in simultaneously, meanwhile the dumb guys keep winning

[liens of new york @liensofnewyork]

Volatility hedge fund closing amidst *checks notes* volatility

[Quercus @Quercus45]

Another data point...

[david @sdav1986]

@EffMktHype look at the list of ETFs man…. they repackage every piece of dogshit they can find into an ETF for fees