@songminjun32352 Thank you for this great post! Do you happen to know the pros & cons between fuel cells and grid- connected electricity generation please? Just curious about how big the impact will be when fuel cell becomes mature.
@Hollandpar91513@Agrippa_Inv@BullTheoryio Prove what? Michael was no doubt a big winner in 2008, but obviously he has been fucked up for years. You can easily find it via Scion 13F. Moreover the AUM of his fund is ridiculously low as a famous manager.
Thank you, Frans. You have always been one of the earliest people to recognize IREN’s exceptional DNA. I truly appreciate your long-term insights and information.
I noticed that you recently criticized IREN’s investor relations approach, and I’d like to share a few observations with you here.
There are signs that IREN’s deliberate low-profile approach is not one-sided — NVIDIA seems to be acting similarly.
I noticed that at the March GTC conference, Jensen Huang personally went to the Nebius booth to support them and said many encouraging things. The IREN booth was very close to Nebius — it would not have been difficult to walk over in one minute and do a similar public show.
The two companies are clearly collaborating on something with enormous future implications, yet none of that happened.
And after Jensen rather intensively referenced IREN-related elements during a certain period last year, he suddenly stopped mentioning them entirely. For a period of time, this even made me change my own view, leading me to believe that IREN had rejected direct equity investment from NVIDIA in order to maintain its independence.
Several of the major developments announced by IREN this time would indeed have been very difficult to discuss with the market in advance, especially acquisitions.
If information leaks ahead of time, it would immediately attract excessive attention and outside interference.
Take the acquisition of the Spanish data center as an example — this itself is an industry-first move. Competitors would quickly realize that this is also a way to rapidly build strategic barriers, and in the current overheated market environment, it would immediately attract rival bidders.
This also demonstrates the scale advantage IREN has already achieved, and that advantage is likely to strengthen even further going forward.
As IREN’s long-term strategic direction becomes progressively clearer, the company’s investor relations approach should also evolve.
The biggest takeaway from this earnings report was primarily the effort to show the market the company’s future strategic positioning. I believe this will become the turning point for IREN’s revaluation.
And the industry debate comparing IREN with CoreWeave and Nebius should probably come to an end at this point, because from a long-term strategic perspective, the differences between them will continue to widen.
IREN possesses too many unique advantages that the others simply do not have.
If things develop successfully in the future, they themselves could even become adopters of the new NVIDIA–IREN compute architecture.
CoreWeave and Nebius both still need to manage their financial risks carefully. CoreWeave is at least relatively candid. The problem with Nebius is that it focuses only on discussing the positive aspects while avoiding the difficult parts as much as possible. That is a very unhealthy corporate style.
In addition, the market’s understanding of the technical sophistication and uniqueness behind IREN’s operation of GW-scale site clusters remains far too limited.
If the company can strengthen community communication in this area, it would likely have a very positive effect, because this is one of IREN’s true “only-I-have-it” advantages — and it is something that could create an enormous future gap versus competitors.
Wishing tonight’s Space a great success.
This is the first stage of IREN establishing its new development model to the market, and I hope to hear high-quality discussion and insights.
At a $15B market cap the market is pricing $IREN as if Sweetwater, Oklahoma, and the remaining 4GW of uncontracted capacity are worth zero.
$IREN just energized 1.4GW of renewable ERCOT connected capacity that would take a competitor 5-7 years and $3-5B minimum to replicate from scratch. The announcement dropped a day after retail gave up waiting for the April deadline. When $IREN contracts Sweetwater at the Microsoft comparable economics, that's $8-9B ARR. The energization announcement is the starting gun for accelerating the negotiations.
At a minimum this new capacity is worth $3B in market cap (20% price jump), assuming just the raw cost of building 1.4GWs but the real value is the time to compute. Which in today's compute restrained world is priceless.
Looking ahead:
- Sweetwater 100% contracted
- With MSFT Horizon economics (low end est.): $8.5B ARR
- ARR Multiple 4x (conservative)
- Implied Value $34B
- Share price $150 (current market cap plus fully contracted Sweetwater deal)
So the only bear case is $IREN can't sign a deal despite that all we hear is the demand far accedes the compute supply and the other Neoclouds are signing massive deals. I'm willing to bet they will close a deal. The risk reward is just to good here. We're looking at a 3x in 2026 and all we need is for the lawyers to do their thing and close the deal. The Horizon Microsoft deal took a long time and frustrated many investors. The Sweetwater deal will be worth the wait.
Great find by @bitcoinbutcher1, $IREN SW1 for 1.4GW is energized! I was getting worried since we had past April but May 1st announcement is close enough. Was probably energized in the past week as tracked by Frans satellite pictures.
Ready for $IREN to monetize this with an initial 200MW IT contract. Rest of site will probably be signed as first 200MW IT gets built as IREN sees GPU prices going up so they only sign when they start building the DC aka late as possible.
While a 400B MC company, $INTC is up over 25% post earnings, I don’t see the reason $IREN can’t show a > 30% god candle with deal announcement at earnings.