At a $15B market cap the market is pricing $IREN as if Sweetwater, Oklahoma, and the remaining 4GW of uncontracted capacity are worth zero.
$IREN just energized 1.4GW of renewable ERCOT connected capacity that would take a competitor 5-7 years and $3-5B minimum to replicate from scratch. The announcement dropped a day after retail gave up waiting for the April deadline. When $IREN contracts Sweetwater at the Microsoft comparable economics, that's $8-9B ARR. The energization announcement is the starting gun for accelerating the negotiations.
At a minimum this new capacity is worth $3B in market cap (20% price jump), assuming just the raw cost of building 1.4GWs but the real value is the time to compute. Which in today's compute restrained world is priceless.
Looking ahead:
- Sweetwater 100% contracted
- With MSFT Horizon economics (low end est.): $8.5B ARR
- ARR Multiple 4x (conservative)
- Implied Value $34B
- Share price $150 (current market cap plus fully contracted Sweetwater deal)
So the only bear case is $IREN can't sign a deal despite that all we hear is the demand far accedes the compute supply and the other Neoclouds are signing massive deals. I'm willing to bet they will close a deal. The risk reward is just to good here. We're looking at a 3x in 2026 and all we need is for the lawyers to do their thing and close the deal. The Horizon Microsoft deal took a long time and frustrated many investors. The Sweetwater deal will be worth the wait.
IREN has announced a planned 800MW data center campus in Bundey, South Australia.
This marks IREN’s first announced Australian data center project and one of the largest in the Asia-Pacific region announced to date.
Learn more: https://t.co/3bOYCUG3pk
@SpoonKidnapper@DollarCostAvg I could spin up an uber app right now but the legal bullshit and brand building and stuff like that would mean I would get no where fast.