Riccardo Grigatti

[PAOLO BELVEDERESI @zeygosit]

The AI boom is fueling extraordinary profits, but free cash flow is under pressure. Hyperscalers fund record capex while earnings climb. Trailing 4Q FCF peaked in early 2024 and is set to fall sharply — one reason AI looks like an earnings bubble, not a valuation bubble.

[0xDipper @Dipper_pol]

Nassim Taleb told a room full of fund managers: not one of you will ever get the returns of the market

Two decades a trader before he touched theory - and his whole point is that survival, not return, is the game almost everyone misprices.

"Take all the risk you can - but make sure you're in tomorrow"

"You don't cross a river that's three feet deep on average"

"Once you hit ruin, the casino's edge doesn't matter - you're gone"

bookmark and watch it today - 39 minutes on ruin, paranoia, and why surviving beats being right ↓

[PAOLO BELVEDERESI @zeygosit]

Tech capex now accounts for ~50% of total S&P500 corporate capex - an unprecedented level that comfortably exceeds the dot-com peak (~38%). The recent acceleration reflects the massive AI infrastructure buildout: data centers, GPUs, power. Such concentration of capital in a single sector is a historic bet. If expected returns materialize, current multiples will be justified; if adoption disappoints or overcapacity emerges, the impact on earnings and indices would be material. The market is pricing in flawless execution.

[wwfitalia @WWFitalia]

Oggi è l'Overshoot Day italiano significa che se tutta l’umanità adottasse il modello di consumo di noi italiani, oggi avremmo esaurito le risorse naturali che il Pianeta è in grado di rigenerare in un anno

Questo dato non è isolato👇
https://t.co/PyQds0CEwx

[Radio 24 @Radio24_news]

Ospite a #LeoniPerAgnelli, il fonico e produttore Maurizio Biancani, fondatore della Fonoprint e punto di riferimento per tanti grandi autori, da Vasco Rossi a Lucio Dalla, da Ramazzotti a Moricone. Ascolta al link: https://t.co/AB5Glh6PTz

[PAOLO BELVEDERESI @zeygosit]

No more “buy the dip”: as noted by JPM, yesterday’s relief rally confirms a shift in retail investor behavior. Investors have moved from buying during market pullbacks to largely skipping them altogether, preferring instead to sell into strength and adopt a more defensive stance.

[PAOLO BELVEDERESI @zeygosit]

The CNN Fear & Greed Index has fallen into extreme fear territory, with retail investor sentiment readings pointing to a marked increase in bearishness. From a contrarian perspective, this is often a constructive signal for the market: when pessimism becomes so widespread, much of the bad news is likely already priced in, creating the conditions for either a rebound or at least a stabilization phase in equities.

[Atlas Press @realAtlasPress]

“Wrong does not cease to be wrong because the majority share in it.”

—Leo Tolstoy

[Steve Burns @SJosephBurns]

"Never buy something whose price assumes perfection or permanent growth. The most expensive four words in investing are “this time is different.”

“When the price embeds the assumption that nothing bad can ever happen again, you are buying a contract written by someone who has no skin in the game after the sale.”

“The only honest price is the one that assumes things can and will go wrong. Everything else is a transfer of fragility from the seller (who disappears) to the buyer (who remains exposed)."

— Nassim Nicholas Taleb

[Steve Burns @SJosephBurns]

“A Stoic is someone who transforms fear into prudence, pain into transformation, mistakes into initiation, and desire into undertaking.”

— Nassim Nicholas Taleb

[Renaud Pila @renaudpila]

Cette vidéo est une bombe aux Etats-Unis. Le très respecté patron de la Fed sort exceptionnellement de son silence pour dénoncer la pression politique et judiciaire de Trump contre l’institution historiquement indépendante. Déjà 36 millions de vues..

[Focus Economia - Radio24 @FocusEconomia]

«Dobbiamo essere orgogliosi di essere europei, possiamo diventare la Svizzera del mondo». Sebastiano Barisoni lancia una provazione e mette in luce gli aspetti fondamentali del nostro continente. E voi siete d’accordo? Scrivete la vostra opinione nei commenti.

[Cecilia Sala @ceciliasala]

Cécile è nella prigione di Evin, a Teheran, da tre anni. Il suo governo e il suo paese, la Francia, non sono riusciti a liberarla in tempo. Ieri è stata condannata a 31 anni per spionaggio. La stessa accusa che muovevano a me negli interrogatori, la stessa accusa falsa. Ho il cuore in pezzi

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb]

TRUE WEALTH (3rd Ed)
Worriless sleeping
Clear conscience
Reciprocal gratitude
Genuine sense you did your duty toward the Palestinians & other victims
Absence of envy
Foamy coffee
Crusty bread
Trustworthy friends & inexperienced enemies
Frequent smiles
No meals alone
Nice clothes in evening (& Sunday lunch)
No friends w/hypochondria
No gym classes
Gravel bicycling
Good digestive functions
No Zoom "meetings"
No chronic medication
Periodic surprises
Nothing to hide: financial and fiscal tranquility
Muscular strength & endurance
Ability to nap
Access to a hammock

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb]

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

[Salvatore Infantino @sinfantino]

2,9 milioni di veicoli non assicurati.

In Italia 1 su 16 gira senza copertura.

Al Sud è anche peggio: 1 su 12.

La stima puntuale dell'ANIA che ha scremato i veicoli troppo vecchi/inutilizzati/abbandonati

[Domani @DomaniGiornale]

Ecco la «nuova estate». Il caldo è un’emergenza sociale e sanitaria https://t.co/v1CN6rpEEb

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb]

Markets are never as FRAGILE as when the government claims they are antifragile.

[Fabio Sabatini @FabbioSabatini]

🧵Questo grafico - tratto da uno short memo di @ProfJiang (Northwestern), @HannoLustig (Stanford) e coautori – mostra una disconnessione sorprendente: lo spread fra i titoli di Stato USA e i Bund tedeschi a 10 anni (asse verticale sinistro) aumenta, ma il dollaro si deprezza (asse destro).
È una rottura profonda rispetto al passato: rendimenti più alti dovrebbero attrarre capitali e rafforzare il dollaro. Stavolta no.
Il paper descrive accuratamente la trasformazione in corso nei mercati finanziari.
Secondo gli autori, gli investitori hanno smesso di considerare il dollaro e un rifugio e guardano altrove: all’euro.
Un breve thread: 👇

1/7

[Melodies & Masterpieces @SVG__Collection]

A Starter’s Guide To Cool Jazz