STAN

Let's figure it out! Cognitive EW Machine powered by beer. Non-Kinetic, multi-domain, etc. EMS is a domain!

[Natalie Winters @nataliegwinters]

EXCLUSIVE: Chinese Institutions Are Building AI Models Of American Voters—And Testing Political Messages On Them.

Fudan used 171 MILLION X posts to create a million-account “voter pool.” A government-linked team tested a campaign message on synthetic Pennsylvania voters. 🧵

[Rep. Don Bacon 🇺🇸✈️🏍️⭐️🎖️ @RepDonBacon]

We had a 343rd Reconnaissance Squadron crew in town! The Hoovers!

⁦@Offutt_AFB⁩

[🇺🇦Radio Free NAFO Jack’s House @FluteMagician]

1) I’m now going to expose a new Russian troll operation. This is going to be a long thread, but you’re going to need to read it in full to understand what’s going on. So, I posted this reply to a TNM tweet. And the replies to my tweet are a gold mine. Read on⬇️

[Jim Sciutto @jimsciutto]

Confirming her government thwarted a Russian influence op, Estonian PM @kajakallas tells me, “There’s a shadow war going on against our societies.
The aim of Russia’s influence operations is to influence our democratic decision making.” 1/

[Julian Waller 📖 @JulianWaller]

A few thoughts on the Tucker-Putin interview:

Having watched the interview last night, I've been very interested in seeing the reaction here on this site. A lot of people have focused on 'Putin as an autistic history nerd' (good memes here), while others have stuck to variations on 'look how his history is a lie and bizarre and strange' or 'he whiffed the PR opportunity and didn't give MAGA anything.'

Ok. The former is funny, the middle is standard signaling and positioning, and the latter is US politics brain. Fine! But there's really tremendous data in here if we want to look seriously. Some points below.

First, the most important thing is indeed the half-hour history lesson. Not only did Putin start with this, and refuse to be interrupted, he even made a big show of gifting documents supporting his arguments to Tucker. What this tells us is that the history component to the Russo-Ukrainian War is not just a point of legitimation or a general casus belli, but the motivating factor for VVP personally. That's really big!

I've argued for a year now that we should understand the proximate cause of the war to be Vladimir Putin's deepening historical obsessions, his sense of personal grievance, and the unique isolation that allowed this to fester in the runup to 2022. You can find an article making that case here: https://t.co/FeRynDE2l9. If you've taken my undergraduate course on Russian Politics, it's there as well. This interview is strong supporting data for that framing. Note how often Putin dismisses NATO expansion as the reason for action, as well as how much he does not care about Ukrainian democracy qua democracy. He doesn't even think it is a democracy (note the coup discussions).

Rather, he's clearly motivated - then and now - by historical concerns most of all. And this is important, which some observers may not quite get. He was not always like this! That is, the long rants about history that justify political action have become more and more common in the last ten years, and especially the last four or five. Which fits a model of growing obsession - which, incidentally, also aligns well with Putin's post-2012 sense that only he can stably rule Russia, and that he wants to bequeath a legacy. Tucker wasn't able to get an answer to the core question - why 2022 and not earlier - but this is good material for a obsession interpretation.

Second, another element that came out strongly was Putin's sense of personal insult and snubbing. He is butthurt by his world leader colleagues. We have dozens of minutes of him talking about the Bushes, about documents signed by the French and Germans, about negotiations generally - all of which end with Russia not getting what was promised or it expected. That could be read simply as justification for Russia's actions (i.e., the hypocrisy of the West) but what is mostly communicated, verbally and through body language, is that Putin himself feels slighted, and that he does not understand why others do not see the world, and the consequences of events, as clearly as he does. This is also quite interesting.

There is very little reason to believe this interview is anything less than the sincere views of Putin himself, as a smarter-than-average Russian boomer who is trying to explain why he's right, why he's been aggrieved, and why the other sides are just so stupid and shortsighted. He's booming really hard, it's very evident. He's not sharing everything, but he's telling you that he's not sharing everything with a knowing, paternalistic smile while he says it. And he really wants to get it through your thick skull what actually matters. Rurik, Yaroslav the Wise, 1654, Bohdan Khmelnitsky, the Soviet Union and the border changes, leaders just not being reasonable, etc etc.

Third, I don't think we can understand this interview as some sort of functionalist strategic communication exercise at all. VVP clearly did not care to talk about US political issues, he did not "throw red meat to MAGA" or whatever, he did not rise to the bait several times to get on a cleaner messaging narrative that would sell with an international audience of illiberal or West-skeptical types. At all! It was the above, which means this interview was about what Vladimir Putin himself thought rather than what he thought would sell best. That's incredibly unusual for an interview like this.

We didn't get anything about cancel culture, or gender ideology, or Biden being senile, or the US being this evil tentacled hegemon that threatens global peace. He was actually incredibly circumspect on that sort of thing. Much more so than in other venues in the recent past. This was Putin as pedagogue-in-chief, trying to educate Tucker not only about history, but also about how the world actually works. Look to the wandering discussion on the Orange Revolution, Yanukovych, the various negotiations, for that. The personal resentment comes out here in a distinct way, as disappointment and confusion as to why other international partners just don't get it the way VVP does.

Truly, the most framed or set-up part of this interview was the point about the spring 2022 negotiations (note his arg that instead of the Battle of Kyiv being lost, it was a part of a negotiation that got cut short by Johnson's intervention - an interesting assertion). And Tucker got him to talk about future potential negotiations as well. That was also enlightening, as it reiterated Putin's world-weary points that the other side doesn't get it and is stubborn, and that there is a 'reasonable' way out if only leaders would be clear-eyed.

This is important to keep in mind, especially as Putin seems quite confident the war is going well enough that he can just wait for negotiations to inevitably appear. Also note his regular recourse to proceduralism - negotiations are detailed, complicated, have many moving parts. The bureaucratic KGB and legal background always shines through with Putin at the end of the day.

Finally, as I've noted, this interview was pretty strange. Tucker tried to move things in a way that fit his own views (NATO expansion, the 'who runs the US' question, demonic forces on earth (?)), which was pretty cringe. But he actually did a decent job overall (sorry!). He asked about Gershkovich and pushed fairly hard all things considered, he got steamrolled by VVP but managed to barely hold on given the very meandering discussion (Putin's framing of 2004 and 2013-14 is genuinely difficult to understand if you don't already know the events quite well), he didn't crash the interview so bad that it ended early, he figured out he had a unique opportunity to let Putin talk, and in doing so he provided us a unique window into VVP.

It turns out that Putin says the same thing to Tucker as he does to Ru journos, with even more Putinsplaining. Which is illuminating! The history thing is the real deal, as is his belief that negotiations (in Russia's favor and in accordance with Putin's own sense of what is reasonable) are possible. Both of these things are really important for us to get at analytically.

I'm still thinking about this, but those are some topline takeaways as I process it this morning.

[STAN @RJStan_]

@jrdonn12 @Heather_at_ACTS To your point though, I think we should be publicly messaging the threat to actively counter Russia's cognitive campaigning in the US.

[STAN @RJStan_]

@jrdonn12 @Heather_at_ACTS That's right, it's not very public but it was a daily thought in planning. Here's one example I could find quickly from 2019. Admittedly I did not give realist view as much credit as it deserves.. @jrdonn12 @Heather_at_ACTS

[Chirag | AI creator @DivineManhood]

Bro casually dropped the best definition of discipline

[STAN @RJStan_]

It's not easy to describe how different these jets are, but David did it well! Factory fresh every few years! #usaf

https://t.co/uF7aZ4YktZ

[Dr J @jrdonn12]

Well done JADS! Way to represent ACSC! @melianpdialogue @KeraRolsen @RJStan_ @TweetsFromJDW

[Air University Teaching & Learning Center @AirTeaching]

@HQAirUniversity has advanced to the finals of the @ArmyWarCollege Strategy Competition! Congratulations to the ACSC Joint All Domain Strategy team and well done to all the participants this year. @AETCommand @OSP_The_Hub @The_MSFRIC

[Radio & Nukes 🇺🇦 @HamWa07]

Just came across and old video @RALee85 posted Feb 9, 2022. The video shows things i have never seen with the S-400. On the left here you can see. That scope in the left is looking for velocity gate / range gate pull off. https://t.co/iD0BBf4cvB

[STAN @RJStan_]

So... What's EMBM?

[Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ @mercoglianos]

Can I just say WOW!

These AORs are literally what the @USNavy need for the Next Gen Logistics Ship.

They feature elements missing from the newest @MSCSealift Lewis class oilers.

Most importantly they have defense capacity & can be integrated into battle grouls.

[Oklahoma Department of Wildlife Conservation @OKWildlifeDept]

stranger: is this snake poisonous?

us: nah fam,

stranger: *picks up snake, gets bitten, starts foaming at the mouth*

us: it’s venomous tho

[Janis Kluge @jakluge]

#Russia is forced to sell its Urals #oil at a 50% discount, prices are falling as low as $37.8 per barrel. Diverting the first million barrels per day of oil away from the EU was doable - but diverting the second million barrels per day is much harder.

https://t.co/2aUMKesFyy

[Yuriy Gudymenko @y_gudymenko]

You're being pushed into a senseless war on foreign soil, while we're defending what's ours. We own the initiative, and your Russian allies are retreating month after month.

You don't have a single chance. You will die here, near a village you've never heard of before. 10/12

[STAN @RJStan_]

Fantastic program, learned creative ways to influence the observed system. Maneuver to win, live by your partners/Allies, Logistics are King!

[Dr J @jrdonn12]

At ACSC concept development is part of the curriculum. I know JADS grads take what they learn at ACSC to solve the wicked problems facing the joint force. @RJStan_ @TweetsFromJDW @USACGSC @AbuCole_

[Big Sky Conference @BigSkyConf]

Nah we good