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This is where Iâll share my immediate thoughts on market-moving news and answer questions in real time. Perfect example was this morning. At 9:20 a.m., before the market opened, I called that the NASDAQ would close the day green despite The Informationâs article. And I was right.
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Hey @vladtenev and @RobinhoodApp team,
This holiday season, families like mine are hunting for meaningful ways to gift toward kidsâ futures. Iâm dying to open a 529 account for my 1-year-old son right on Robinhood, complete with simple âshare a linkâ contributions from friends and family. Is this available now, or coming soon?
It fits Robinhoodâs core mission so perfectly: making long-term investing accessible, starting from day one, and fueling real generational wealth. A built-in 529 would grab those peak family moments every year and position Robinhood as the ultimate starting point for households.
Apologies for the personal beg, but Iâm betting others are in the same boat. Iâve been getting texts from family asking for my sonâs link, and I held off sharing his current one (with a competitor) just to check with you first. Iâd switch over immediately!
Is this on the roadmap? With managed retirement accounts already live, it seems like a no-brainer. đ€·đ»
$HOOD Last week's sports event contracts volume:
â At least 498 million contracts traded
â At least $4.98 million in revenue
Quite a strong week despite CFB and NFL volumes being lower than previous weeks. NBA continues to increase and will eventually be the sport with the most contracts traded on an annual basis.
This week is CFB rivalry week + Thanksgiving NFL and NBA. Should be fun
LISTEN TO THE PRICE
$DUOL $DKNG $HOOD
In the stock market, price is the most honest source of information because it incorporates everything investors believe about future cash flows, competitive dynamics, and risk. It represents the aggregation of thousands of independent judgments made in real time and backed by actual capital. Analysts and investors can debate strategy, valuation, and macro conditions, but the market expresses its collective view through the price it is willing to pay. Price adjusts before narratives do because capital responds faster than commentary.
When a stock refuses to follow the broader market or cannot generate sustained interest, the signal embedded in that behavior often tells you more about the future than any headline or management remark.
A core principle of market structure is that price often reacts ahead of the narrative. When investors begin to reduce exposure, they rarely announce it. There is no press release that says sentiment is weakening. Instead, the signs appear in how a stock behaves relative to its peers and relative to the broader market. A name that refuses to participate in strength is telling you something about positioning. A stock that cannot find upside even when conditions are broadly becoming favorable is telling you something about expectations. Investors who ignore those signals usually end up getting lost chasing the story after the market has already moved.
That dynamic is visible today in $DUOL and $DKNG. The market is delivering a strong, broad rally with clear participation across all sectors. Days like this are useful not because of the green on the screen but because of the outliers. The stocks that lag are often the ones undergoing a fundamental sentiment shift that is not fully recognized yet. Underperformance is rarely noise. It is often the earliest and cleanest indicator that something in the outlook has changed.
If you want the rest of the write-up, itâs available below on my Substack for free subscribers:
https://t.co/SS8EDCfk4Y
We've seen enough red for today so let me share some good news - $HOOD posted another record-breaking week for Sports Event Contracts:
â At least 553 million contracts traded đ€Ż
â At least $5.53 million in revenue
For the first time since the NBA season started, NBA basketball had more volume traded than CFB or NFL. Amazing to see.
In the first half of November, ~1.30 billion contracts traded, so we are likely going to see another record-breaking month in volume.
Quite incredible đ
The most underappreciated market for @RobinhoodApp prediction markets is not actually gambling, its insurance. Let me explain:
Because prediction markets arenât wagers. Theyâre retail-accessible insurance for uncertainties you currently cannot hedge anywhere else.
Think about real-world risk:
If you live in Miami and a Category 4 hurricane is forming, you canât buy âHurricane Landfall Insuranceâ for next week. Traditional insurers wonât write it, the timing is too short, and the products donât exist. But a prediction market that lets you buy âHurricane makes U.S. landfall by Sept 1â essentially lets you hedge the financial disruption: if the storm hits and you suffer damage, your fast settlement pays out.
Same with policy risk:
A restaurant owner in California canât hedge âWill the minimum wage law pass?â The entire business model depends on it. Traditional markets donât give you that hedge. But a prediction market on âMinimum wage bill passes by Q4â functions like a policy-risk swap. If it passes, your cost structure gets hit but your contract pays out. If it fails, your upside is protected.
Or take supply chain risk:
If youâre a contractor relying on imported steel, thereâs no retail-accessible hedge for âWill tariffs be raised next month?â A prediction market lets you insure against that spike. The cost of construction rises; you get paid.
Even individuals benefit:
Youâre planning a wedding, outdoor event, whatever. Weather insurance is incredibly expensive and inaccessible. A prediction market on âRain probability above 60% on June 21â gives you a cheap hedge against chaos.
Or someone in crypto:
You canât insure âWill the SEC approve the next ETF by June?â Prediction markets give you a way to express and hedge that risk, not just speculate on it.
Or elections:
Businesses deeply exposed to regulatory swings absolutely need hedges on political outcomes. A solar installer, a defense contractor, a cannabis retailer: they all live or die on election outcomes. Traditional markets donât let them insure against that. Prediction markets do.
So while critics scream âgambling,â the truth is the opposite: Prediction markets are a universal risk-transfer mechanism for real-world events that the legacy financial system refuses to insure. Theyâre micro-insurance, priced dynamically, and accessible to everyone not just institutions with bespoke derivatives desks.
If @RobinhoodApp leans into this framing, prediction markets become less like sports betting and more like the retail version of hedging political, climate, regulatory, and macro uncertainty something trillions of dollars of economic activity already desperately needs.
cc: @vladtenev@Kalshi@RKGcapital@DeepValueBagger@amitisinvesting
Just got $HOOD banking. @DataDInvesting id sell $SOFI if I were you. They donât have a chance. Sell $JPM $GS $CITI too while youâre at it. We are taking over the entire financial system.
Listen Claire i am doctor with 25 years experience in issues like yours and I am compelled by my medical oath that what you just posted raises several clinical concerns. Thereâs a facility near where you live called Northwestern Medicine Behavioral Mental Health Services that specializes in evaluating cases like this.
I strongly suggest you check in as soon as possible. When they ask what brings you in, tell them that you're short HOOD and they will know you are suffering from an acute mental illness. Time is of the essence here.
$HOOD I guess people are having a hard time trying to understand that if you donât want to use the prediction markets feature that Robinhood offers, you just donât use it.
Or maybe they just donât like the fact that, after so many years, a broker is putting their customers (and shareholders) first.
Long $HOOD
$HOOD Monday 11/10 Sports Event Contracts:
â at least 59.4 million contracts traded
â at least $594,000 in revenue
Total sports event contracts traded in the first 10 days of November were at least 860 million.
If we continue to see these numbers for the remainder of the month, November could be even bigger than October, with over 2.5 billion contracts traded đ
Robinhood is a generational company, literally. In this blog, @GrousARK and @varshikaARK describe how profoundly $HOOD is challenging and changing the traditional financial world.