Rachel M. Stein

Recovering academic, Chief Analyst @EquisLabs, audiobook junkie, aspiring novelist. She/hers. All opinions are my own, especially the wrong ones!

[Maria Di Franco Quiñonez @mariadfq]

New from @EquisResearch 🧵

About a quarter of Latinos who supported Trump in 2024 either express disappointment in him (19%) or regret their vote (8%).

And, there continue to be signs of defection from GOP: 11% of Trump voters say they plan to support a Democrat in 2026.

[Rachel M. Stein @RachelMStein1]

My mantra today: show me your data or gtfo

[Carlos Odio @carlosodio]

LATINO EDAY THREAD #1 - The Warm-Up - The first of a few threads prepping for tonight. Later: some data we’ve been holding back. Right now: let’s start with some scene-setting…

[John Sides @johnmsides]

In advance of election night, I think it's useful to calibrate expectations to the fundamentals, not to polls or vibes.

So, a good calibration:

House: Dems lose ~40-45 seats
Senate: Dems lose 1-3 seats

Anything significantly less = Dem over-performance. Here's why.

[Rachel M. Stein @RachelMStein1]

This whole thread should be required reading

[Carlos Odio @carlosodio]

Today @EquisResearch is releasing the 2nd part of a 2020 post-mortem, focused on WHY some Latino voters shifted to Trump & what it means for the current moment.

The report is ~100 slides. A summary (and the full deck, for the brave) is at the link.

https://t.co/dQdSehe9PW

[Stephanie Valencia @stephanievalenc]

Dems should not take the wrong lessons from tonight and fall into the trap of racing to the right. People want their politicians to deliver, they want results. Dem's have the oppty to do that with the BIF and reconciliation NOW - tax cuts, climate, jobs, immig. Don't mess up.

[Rachel M. Stein @RachelMStein1]

And let's not forget the structural stuff that also worked to Obama's advantage:

2008 - coming off 8 years of GOP control of the WH + a financial crisis right before the election

2012 - incumbency advantage for Obama + steady growth in real disposable income leading up to Nov

[Ezra Klein @ezraklein]

First, on Obama:

The popularist effort to remind people that Obama exerted message discipline in 08 and 12 risks underselling the obvious:

Obama was (and is!) Black, liberal, cosmopolitan and in 08, the anti-war candidate. He was a mobilizer first and foremost.

[Kenia Maravilla (she/her/ella) @LaKeniaem]

Support @avowtexas who has been in the #txleg day in and day out fighting back against the #TexasAbortionBan. Read their statement here and donate! https://t.co/Aft42ZYNNs

[Kenia Maravilla (she/her/ella) @LaKeniaem]

Woke up with a pit in my stomach thinking of Rosie Jimenez and the folks we will lose bc of #SB8. Rosie was 27 y/o when she died from an unsafe abortion after the #HydeAmendment was passed in 1977. She was a mama to a 5 y/o kiddo, working to get her teaching credentials.

[Omar Wasow | @[email protected] @owasow]

In 1964, my father went to Mississippi to register voters as part of Freedom Summer. Though he made it home, others like Goodman, Cheney and Schwerner were murdered. Today, @NPR interviewed my father & me about how the fight for voting rights continues. https://t.co/5R3Bg4lSvg

[Rachel M. Stein @RachelMStein1]

Identification strategy is the only legitimate use for cicadas that I will accept

[Rachel M. Stein @RachelMStein1]

Sure, coffee is great but have you tried starting your Monday morning with a debate over the relationship between correlation and causation?

[Rafe Meager (they/them) @economeager]

Ok so chapter 12 of “Noise” by Kahneman, Sibony and Sunstein contains a repeated, incorrect claim about stats / causality: the claim that no correlation implies no causation. Easy to disprove this claim, no math needed, see my next tweet.

[Chris Warshaw @cwarshaw]

In a new working paper, @ellliottt, @matteopins, @sergallet, and I examine the role of Fox News Channel on U.S. Elections. We show that Fox has helped Republican candidates in elections across levels of U.S. government over the past decade. https://t.co/m11ploUZYB

[Rachel M. Stein @RachelMStein1]

Good thing we got all those years of experience with counter-insurgency in Iraq and Afghanistan. Should come in handy in DC today.

[follow @bencollins on bluesky @oneunderscore__]

.@PeteWilliamsNBC on MSNBC: At least one IED was found. It's now in the hands of law enforcement.

[Rachel M. Stein @RachelMStein1]

Since we are playing the "why did so many Xs vote for Trump??" game, I'd like to humbly nominate my own group: white women.

55-43 for Trump in the nat'l exit poll
51-48 in PA
59-40 in FL
61-38 in TX
64-34 in NC

[Rachel M. Stein @RachelMStein1]

Fired up, ready to vote!

[Rachel M. Stein @RachelMStein1]

Research tells us that voting is habit forming, contagious, and transformative. DO IT!

[Princeton University @Princeton]

Assistant professor of @PUPolitics @AliAValenzuela talks about the importance of casting your ballot and the ripple effect it can have on others. #ElectionDay