Rafael Schnur

Hunting underappreciated ideas. Markets. Quant Econ and Finance Masters 🇨🇭. Prev Dorm Derivatives Arbitrage. Then full-time Quant Trader. Now independent.

[Rafael Schnur @RafaelSchnur]

We're entering an age of acceleration in #Technology due to #AI.

I'm aggressively allocating capital to Datacenter infrastructure, #NVDA and #Semiconductor #stocks.

Of course, their stocks have risen a lot, but that's because we're entering the mother of all supercycles.

[Rafael Schnur @RafaelSchnur]

@leopoldasch We love you too leo <3

[Rafael Schnur @RafaelSchnur]

@LilQwantXBT Whats the goal

[Rafael Schnur @RafaelSchnur]

@alex_verem Pretty midwit take by claude

[Rafael Schnur @RafaelSchnur]

@IterIntellectus Leave lol

[Sam Stoffel @sam_stoffel]

someone who is impossible to beat:

> slightly autistic
> doesn’t ask for permission
> owns their mistakes
> copies what works & improves from there
> acts really fkng quickly
> believes everything is in their control
> agile + willing to pivot
> comfortable being disliked
> obsessed
> ruthlessly cuts off people who don’t support them
> delusionally optimistic
> makes a lot of sacrifices
> willing to look like a beginner
> has fun

it’s possible to win without these, but it’s impossible to lose with them

[Rafael Schnur @RafaelSchnur]

@officialqtodd1 Why what's happening?

[Rafael Schnur @RafaelSchnur]

@Boomerverbot Top 10% der Economics studenten haben das höchste durchschnittsgehalt von allen Studiengängen in den USA

[Rafael Schnur @RafaelSchnur]

@pedma7 @JoachimMo1985 Hype airdrop?

[taobanker @taobanker]

the entire purpose of bars is basically loud music to deter autists. normies have some sort of secret code to hear/understand each other through dangerous noise levels

[Rafael Schnur @RafaelSchnur]

@friendscallmeap 117 my highest

[qm @quantymacro]

so there’s this guy in Singles Inferno who’s apparently a quant trader and on an island with beautiful girls our brother here decided to bring Natenburg. defo not beating allegations that quants have absolutely 0 game

[Rafael Schnur @RafaelSchnur]

@MrMikeInvesting If copper becomes more valuable, they're just gonna mine more, industrial uses will substitute. Sure can double over time, but not triple or quadruple.

[Rafael Schnur @RafaelSchnur]

@Emarged No way he’s getting this volume on that market. Probably has a second account taking the other side

[Rafael Schnur @RafaelSchnur]

@PredMTrader Why do we have a market on this again? Who cares? 259 in volume.

[Rafael Schnur @RafaelSchnur]

@nikshepsvn Feedback to random and noisy my guess

[Rafael Schnur @RafaelSchnur]

Caused this move on Polymarket the other day, when markets were slow to price in implications of SpaceX tender offer on Musk net worth.

[Rafael Schnur @RafaelSchnur]

Musk ending 2026 as richest person is almost certainly 5-7% mispriced on Polymarket.
He would still be worth the two Larry's together if TSLA went bankrupt next year, and SpaceX didn't go public.
For context, SpaceX IPO is priced at 83% likelihood on Polymarket, that would make him worth like 200B-300B more, Tesla going bankrupt next year is priced at 0.4% by option markets. His equity options are 100% discounted by BBI, the resolution source. Any of the Larrys doubling their net worth is priced at like 4% each. Given their stocks beta to TSLA, much lower chance.

Admittenly I'm stuck and need some exit liquidity :)

[Rafael Schnur @RafaelSchnur]

@yatharthmaan Tesla is only 230B out of that. Would still be worth almost the two Larrys together if tsla went bankrupt tomorrow.

[Rafael Schnur @RafaelSchnur]

@tempst0 @therobotjames Thanks for sharing

[Rafael Schnur @RafaelSchnur]

@Breaking911 1. Being likable is her business, and the positive publicity from this pays back for the expenses and more.

2. She deserves credit that she's smart enough to realize that and creates this win-win, many others wouldn't.