A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.
Here's a full recap:
1. Palantir $PLTR delivered an extraordinary Q3 2026, with revenue surging 96% YoY to a record $2.31B, marking its first quarter above $2B, while U.S. commercial revenue skyrocketed 148% YoY to $984M, surpassing U.S. government revenue of $953M for the first time in company history. Total U.S. revenue grew 119% to $1.94B, while adjusted EPS reached $0.44 and GAAP net income climbed to $1.13B. Profitability remained exceptional, with adjusted operating income of $1.43B, representing a 62% margin, and adjusted free cash flow of $1.22B, representing a 53% margin. Palantir achieved a remarkable Rule of 40 score of 158%, closed 64 deals worth at least $10M, and grew U.S. commercial remaining deal value 79% YoY to $6.52B. Management also significantly raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $8.53B, representing 91% annual growth, while projecting U.S. commercial revenue growth of at least 143% and adjusted free cash flow of $4.8B–$5B. CEO Alex Karp emphasized that the accelerating sovereign AI movement is creating unprecedented demand for Palantir's AIP, Foundry, and Ontology platforms, as governments and enterprises increasingly seek to deploy AI using their own proprietary data and infrastructure.
2. Meta $META and Oracle $ORCL are preparing major capital raises as the world's largest technology companies continue securing funding for their expanding AI infrastructure investments. Meta is reportedly targeting at least $20B through a U.S. dollar- and euro-denominated bond offering, potentially spanning five dollar tranches and six euro tranches, with Citigroup $C and Morgan Stanley $MS coordinating investor calls. Meanwhile, Oracle is reportedly preparing a nearly $10B equity offering at an approximately 11% discount, alongside a six-part U.S. dollar investment-grade bond offering and a newly filed mixed shelf registration. Fitch estimates Oracle's combined capital raise at approximately $20B, including $10B in equity.
3. Grab $GRAB delivered strong Q3 2026 results, with revenue increasing 27% YoY to $1.11B and adjusted EBITDA surging 73% to a record $237M, while its adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 565 basis points to 21.3%. Monthly transacting users reached a record 57.2M, up 20% YoY, as Grab added 3.3M users during the quarter, its strongest quarterly addition since Q1 2022. On-Demand GMV grew 18% to $6.84B, while Financial Services revenue surged 124% to $201M, with the segment achieving adjusted EBITDA profitability for the first time at $12M. Grab also raised its FY2026 revenue guidance to $4.15B–$4.20B and adjusted EBITDA outlook to $790M–$800M, reflecting accelerating profitability across its ecosystem. The company generated $286M in quarterly adjusted free cash flow, repurchased $400M in shares during September and October, and retains another $500M in buyback authorization, highlighting improving operating leverage and increasing shareholder returns.
4. President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance expressed growing optimism about a potential U.S.–Iran agreement, with Vance saying he feels “good about the prospects” of a deal following several productive discussions with Iranian officials. Vance confirmed that no deadline has been established for resuming military strikes, while Trump said negotiations are “coming together nicely” and suggested that progress toward an agreement has contributed to falling oil prices. Trump also said Iran wants to reach a deal, reiterated Tehran's assurances that it would not develop nuclear weapons, and indicated that the U.S. would refrain from further strikes against Iranian leadership. Meanwhile, Qatari mediators are reportedly traveling to Tehran to meet Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and discuss a revised agreement that has been under negotiation for eight days, according to Reuters. However, Iranian state-linked Fars News pushed back against reports of a breakthrough, citing a source who said no meaningful progress has occurred and that Tehran will not move forward until Washington satisfies Iran's seven conditions.
5. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 4.7M contracts, $TSLA with 3.7M contracts, $INTC with 2.1M contracts, $MU with 1.8M contracts, $AMZN with 1.8M contracts, $AAPL with 1.6M contracts, $GOOGL with 1.0M contracts, $AMD with 1.0M contracts, $SPCX with 1.0M contracts, and $ORCL with 768K contracts.
6. Anthropic is reportedly facing pressure from institutional investors to price its upcoming November IPO at a $1.5T–$1.6T valuation, down from earlier expectations approaching $2T, according to the Wall Street Journal. The more cautious outlook follows the recent technology selloff and growing concerns over the sustainability of massive AI infrastructure spending, despite Anthropic reporting $17B in Q3 revenue, up from $11.6B in Q2, even after approximately $600M in pricing reductions and customer discounts. The company has also disclosed an extraordinary $895.4B in combined AI computing purchase and lease commitments, including $447.5B expected before 2031, with most remaining obligations extending through 2045. Anthropic could begin its IPO roadshow next week, with trading potentially starting before Thanksgiving, although the final valuation, offering size, and share price remain undetermined.
7. Marvell $MRVL announced a massive $115B all-stock acquisition of Lumentum $LITE, creating a new powerhouse in AI networking, optical connectivity, and custom silicon. Under the agreement, Lumentum shareholders will receive 4.5 Marvell shares for each Lumentum share, valuing Lumentum at approximately $1,132 per share, a 23.9% premium to its unaffected closing price. Following the transaction, Marvell shareholders will own 67% of the combined company, with Lumentum shareholders owning 33%. The merger combines Marvell's expertise in custom AI chips, switching, and electrical interconnects with Lumentum's leadership in lasers, optical transceivers, and optical circuit switching, positioning the combined business to address an estimated $550B total addressable market.
8. U.S. equity funds recorded $6.7B in net outflows during the week ending October 28, marking their largest weekly withdrawal since mid-September and reversing the $5.1B and $13B in inflows recorded over the previous two weeks. Meanwhile, global equity funds attracted $10.2B, extending their inflow streak to six consecutive weeks, although demand slowed considerably from $25.1B and $19.8B in the preceding weeks. Asian equity funds led global inflows with $9.9B, down from $11.6B the prior week, while European equity funds attracted another $4.5B.
9. Disney $DIS is reportedly preparing to eliminate thousands of jobs as part of a major cost-cutting initiative, with some managers instructed to target 20% in annual cost savings across their operations. The reductions are expected to come from a combination of workforce layoffs and lower operating expenses, with certain business divisions facing deeper cuts than others. Disney, which employed approximately 231,000 people worldwide at the end of its last fiscal year, plans to redirect a portion of the savings toward film and television programming, technology, theme parks, and cruise operations.
10. Bloom Energy $BE and California Resources Corporation $CRC signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding to explore the development of more than 1 GW of power generation capacity in California, combining Bloom's solid-oxide fuel cell technology with carbon capture and storage infrastructure. Under the proposed partnership, Bloom would provide its on-site power generation systems, while CRC's Carbon TerraVault would handle CO2 transportation and permanent underground storage. The projects, being evaluated across Central and Northern California, could supply electricity to AI data centers, utilities, and industrial customers, with the companies estimating that up to 3 million metric tons of CO2 annually could be available for capture and storage.
11. AST SpaceMobile $ASTS and AT&T $T announced the first successful handoff of an active cellular connection between a terrestrial network and a satellite network using an unmodified smartphone, marking a significant milestone for direct-to-device satellite connectivity. The test successfully transferred an active connection between AT&T's ground-based cellular infrastructure and AST SpaceMobile's BlueBird satellites, leveraging networking technology from Ericsson $ERIC and Nokia $NOK. The achievement demonstrates progress toward enabling ordinary smartphones to transition between traditional cell towers and satellite coverage without requiring specialized hardware. AT&T said the next step will involve real-world beta testing ahead of a potential commercial rollout, bringing AST SpaceMobile closer to delivering satellite-based cellular coverage in areas where conventional networks are unavailable.
12. Piper Sandler believes a potential SpaceX $SPCX and Tesla $TSLA merger proposal is now more likely than not, as both companies have reportedly established independent special committees to evaluate a possible combination. The firm expects Elon Musk to retain more than 70% voting control of the combined entity under most potential transaction structures, allowing him to maintain significant influence over the businesses. A merger could bring together Tesla's electric vehicles, autonomous driving, robotics, and energy infrastructure with SpaceX's satellite connectivity, launch operations, and AI computing capabilities, potentially creating one of the world's most vertically integrated technology companies.
WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.
Made a public google drive with a 'how it was made,' prompts + generated image assets, high quality audio exports, and the master mp4. Enjoy:
https://t.co/pGRUsml90j
A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.
Here's a full recap:
1. FOMC decision week began with a clear AI rotation: long software, short semis. Nvidia $NVDA, Marvell $MRVL, Sandisk $SNDK, AMD $AMD, Nebius $NBIS, Micron $MU, CoreWeave $CRWV, and Intel $INTC were down 3%-7%, while Palantir $PLTR, Atlassian $TEAM, CrowdStrike $CRWD, ServiceNow $NOW, Adobe $ADBE, and Intuit $INTU were up 2%-5%. The move reflected a market trying to reprice the AI trade after the weekend’s safety debate around Dario’s essay. Semis and neoclouds sold off because their bull case is tied directly to continued AI capex growth which the market interpreted as slowing down if the pace of frontier model development slows down. At the same time, Trump rejected the calls to slow down as he posted that AI needs a “STRONG AND SMART” president rather than guardrails, said the U.S. was leading China in AI, and separately said Iran wanted to make a deal and that the US was open to engaging. Oil crossed $105 and the US 10-year treasury yield crossed 5%. The Fed will make their decision for a rate hike on Wednesday.
2. Palantir $PLTR, Nvidia $NVDA, and Booz Allen Hamilton are reportedly restricting Anthropic’s Fable model for sensitive work over concerns about its data-retention policies, according to The Information. Some enterprise customers are demanding irrevocable zero-data-retention guarantees before putting proprietary information into the model. Anthropic reportedly introduced rolling 30-day usage logs for safety monitoring in June, while its planned option for eligible customers to store logs themselves can still be revoked. Palantir is withholding Fable from its platform until it receives irrevocable zero-data-retention guarantees, Nvidia is limiting Fable to less-sensitive work while using Nemotron for sensitive internal projects, and Booz Allen is excluding Fable from work involving its proprietary cybersecurity software.
3. Trump called Jensen Huang during the All-In Summit and was put on speaker phone, where he defended the AI data center buildout and pushed back on recent concerns. “I'm telling you it's all a hoax. The data centers are great. They make people wealthy. They make states wealthy. AI is bigger than the internet. These people are playing right into the hands of China. We're not going to let that happen,” Trump said. Jensen responded, “You're right, we're not going to let that happen sir.” Jensen also said the fears from over the weekend were made up and that the companies involved have the control they need to navigate the concerns.
4. OpenAI has acquired Glass Imaging, an AI camera startup founded by former Apple engineers, for more than $300M. Glass is working to bring DSLR-like image quality to smartphones, and the deal comes as OpenAI and Jony Ive continue developing new consumer hardware. OpenAI’s exact plans for Glass remain unclear, but the acquisition is notable given Glass was valued at roughly $100M just last year.
5. Truist initiated Nebius $NBIS at Buy with a $355 price target, calling it a scaling AI-native hyperscaler still early in its infrastructure buildout. The firm believes consensus 2027E ARR estimates are conservative given recent pricing of $20M-$25M/MW for 1-3 year deals and $40M-$50M/MW for shorter-duration contracts. Truist sees a major opportunity ahead, estimating a $2.1T annual revenue opportunity at the cloud layer by 2030E, with scarcity and contract economics supporting upside to pricing and revenue. The firm also sees multiple paths for Nebius to reach 20%-30% adjusted EBIT margins over the medium term.
6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 3.2M contracts, $TSLA with 2.4M contracts, $AAPL with 1.6M contracts, $MU with 1.1M contracts, $AMZN with 957K contracts, $META with 906K contracts, $MSFT with 874K contracts, $INTC with 835K contracts, $GOOGL with 734K contracts, and $SPCX with 688K contracts.
7. U.S. consumers aged 40-49 now account for 26.8% of new consumer bankruptcies, their highest share since Q3 2015 and the largest of any age group. The 50-59 group represents another 23.1%, bringing Americans aged 40-59 to 49.9% of all new consumer bankruptcies, the highest share since Q1 2017. For perspective, that figure peaked at 54.3% in Q4 2011 after the 2008 Financial Crisis. Consumers aged 70+ now make up 21.5% of new bankruptcies, their highest share since Q2 2017, while Americans aged 18-29 account for just 5.9%, the lowest since Q2 2014.
8. JPMorgan upgraded IREN $IREN to Overweight and raised its price target to $65 from $46, saying the company is emerging as a top-tier neocloud provider. JPM cited IREN’s NVIDIA partnership, stronger customer momentum, and rising AI infrastructure pricing, noting neocloud contracts have moved from roughly $10-$15/W to $15-$20/W+, while customer prepayments of 25%-50% are helping fund GPU purchases. IREN has raised its year-end 2026 ARR target to as much as $4B, with roughly $1B of operating ARR today. JPM also highlighted IREN’s Microsoft buildout, recent deal with an unnamed frontier AI lab. Looking into 2027, JPM believes IREN’s planned ~0.5 GW expansion could command materially higher pricing, with deals above $15/W creating significant upside to the outlook.
9. Global semiconductor revenue hit a record $425B in Q2 2026, up 31.4% QoQ, according to Omdia. Memory accounted for more than half of total revenue, driven by AI demand and rising DRAM, NAND, and NOR pricing. Even excluding memory, semiconductor revenue grew more than 10% QoQ, well above the historical Q2 average of just over 3%. The industry generated $752B in revenue in the first half of 2026 alone, and Omdia expects Q3 revenue to surpass $500B, pushing the first nine months of 2026 above $1.25T.
10. Apple $AAPL has begun rolling out its new Siri AI in beta with iOS 27, adding personal context across messages, emails, and photos, plus onscreen awareness and systemwide app actions. The new Siri can find information across a user’s device, understand what is on screen, draft emails, add calendar events, and take actions across supported apps. Apple says the new Apple Intelligence architecture uses its own foundation models built in collaboration with Google Gemini, with processing split between on-device models and Private Cloud Compute.
11. U.S. diesel prices have officially risen to a record $6.20/gallon, up 78% over the last 9 months. In California, diesel has surged to a record $8.14/gallon, with some areas approaching $9.00/gallon. The spike comes as the U.S. enters peak diesel-demand season while supply remains historically tight. Jet fuel is also surging, now at $4.35/gallon, up 61% over the last 10 weeks, with prices rising another 10% in the past week as U.S. oil pushes above $100/barrel. Airline fares were already up 23% YoY in August, and if fuel stays elevated, September CPI could show fares rising as much as 30%.
12. The Clarity Act $BTC $ETH moved back into focus after Senate Republicans released a “final” draft ahead of Tuesday’s cloture vote, saying the text includes 126 Democratic-requested changes after more than a year of talks. The bill still needs 60 votes to advance, with Republicans holding 53 seats. Key updates include new ethics language requiring covered officials and spouses to divest certain crypto interests or place them in a qualified blind trust, a role for state attorneys general in enforcement, and a Treasury “circuit breaker” that could restrict stablecoin rewards if payment stablecoins trigger major deposit flight from community banks. The U.S. Senate is scheduled to hold a key preliminary cloture vote on the Clarity Act on Tuesday afternoon, September 15, 2026, at approximately 2:15 PM ET.
WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.
Regret the tone of my post on data centers yesterday.
What I should have said:
There were reasonable concerns about data centers 18ish months ago: water, taxes, jobs, electricity prices, the environment and what they would do to small towns. Well-structured data center projects have largely addressed these concerns today and we should be celebrating this.
On balance, data centers are awesome for America in every way.
On water: U.S. data centers use a fraction of what golf courses use. A lot of the numbers from 18 months ago were off by over 1000x. Newer data centers use closed-loop systems or recycled water. Should be required by every town approving a data center project.
On taxes: looking only at sales-tax exemptions, as Ronan Farrow did, is the wrong way to evaluate this. Data centers pay significant property taxes. Loudoun County, which is the wealthiest county in America, now collects on the order of $1 billion a year from data centers. In Quincy, WA, data centers are more than half the property-tax roll. Over time, property taxes can go to zero while government spending increases in these towns.
On jobs: this has been unambiguously awesome for blue collar Americans. Demand for electricians, plumbers, welders, HVAC techs, and contractors has gone vertical, and it is not a one-time construction job. These buildings get upgraded and expanded over time. That is why the building trades are fighting for them, and why some unions are now treating opposition to data centers as a reason not to endorse politicians.
On power: the original fear was that households would pay for the incremental electricity demand in the form of higher prices. That is why the ratepayer-protection deals and the new large-load tariffs exist. The right structure is: the data center brings or pays for new generation and signs a contract long enough that existing customers are protected. Where that is happening, utilities are cutting or freezing residential rates and saying so on the record. Where it is not, people are right to object. Electricity prices are going down *today* in a number of large states because of data centers.
On the environment: data centers overwhelming use natural gas today, which is the cleanest power source outside of nuclear, solar and wind. And the companies that are building the data centers are committed to carbon neutrality such that an equivalent amount of solar will likely be built. Maybe more importantly, the data centers need batteries to function effectively and these batteries can also sell energy back into the grid (which recently prevented blackouts in Texas). Over time, data centers will run on solar plus batteries.
On the towns: Poverty in Quincy, WA fell from 29% to 6%. Data center taxes paid for a new high school, a hospital, a library, police and fire stations. This is happening in many left for dead former mill and farm towns that had no other bidder for the land.
Data centers are actually reindustrializing parts of America and creating the kind of working-class jobs both parties have spent decades claiming to support. That should not be a partisan issue. Data centers can and should be awesome for America and they increasingly, overwhelmingly are. Supporting the outsourcing of data centers to China will likely age just as well as support for the outsourcing of high quality, blue collar manufacturing jobs to China has aged.
When the facts change, I change my mind. I hope that reasonable people who had good faith reasons to oppose data centers at least consider updating their beliefs given the change in the facts over the last 18 months. This really matters for America.
I will say I also think the idea of making data centers beautiful is a good one that has yet to be implemented. Data centers should be just as beautiful as Grand Central Station. We can learn a lot from the railroad buildout. Neoclassical revival ftw.
Might write up open-weight AI tomorrow as this is equally essential to America.
One of the most devastating critiques of PM Luxon you will hear, and its worse because it comes from a real businessman.
Chris Barret is not one of those male wokesters or DEI females that head up NZ's cronyist govt owned businesses. Air NZ and the power companies. He heads Steel Worx.
Its a real business, he's a real director and he's far from happy. Especially over what Mr Luxon said in Rotorua last week.
A lifetime National voter, Mr Barret says he's not voting for them this election. He wants a coaltion made up of the existing parties, but National with far less power.
Which seems to be the way a lot of people are thinking.
On the other hand, this is getting serious. We can't put National out of the picture altogether, or fall to the point Labour/ Greens can win.
Someone needs to get a handle on things at the Nats. If indeed there is anyone there capable of doing so.
🔥 First time ever — Sammy Hagar meets Eddie Van Halen on stage!
Farm Aid 1985. Sammy steps in, Eddie lights up his guitar, and they absolutely crush Led Zeppelin’s “Rock And Roll” together. Raw energy, killer tone, and the exact moment the Van Hagar era was born 🤘
History in real time.