The most useful razors and rules I've found:
1. Bragging Razor - If someone brags about their success or happiness, assume it’s half what they claim
If someone downplays their success or happiness, assume it’s double what they claim
2. High Agency Razor - If unsure who to work with, pick the person that has the best chances of breaking you out of a 3rd world prison.
3. The Early-Late Razor - If it's a talking point on Reddit, you might be early. If it's a talking point on LinkedIn, you're definitely late.
4. Luck Razor - If stuck with 2 equal options, pick the one that feels like it will produce the most luck later down the line.
I used this razor to go for drinks with a stranger rather than watch Netflix. In hindsight, it was the highest ROI decision I've ever made.
5. Buffett's Law - "The value of every business is 100% subject to government interest rates" - Warren Buffett
6. The 6-Figure Razor - If someone brags about "6 figures" -- assume it's closer to $100K than $900K.
7. Parent Rule - Break down the investments your parents made in you: Time, Love, Energy, and Money.
If they are still alive, aim to hit a positive ROI (or at least break even.)
8. Instagram Razor - When you see a photo of an influencer looking attractive on Instagram -- assume there are 99 worse variations of that photo you haven't seen.
They just picked the best one.
9. Narcissism Razor - If worried about people's opinions, remember they are too busy worrying about other people's opinions of them. 99% of the time you're an extra in someone else's movie
10. Everyday Razor - If you go from doing a task weekly to daily, you achieve 7 years of output in 1 year. If you apply a 1% compound interest each time, you achieve 54 years of output in 1 year.
11. Bezos Razor - If unsure what action to pick, let your 90-year-old self on death bed choose it.
12. Creativity Razor - If struggling to think creatively about a subject, transform it:
• Turn a thought into a written idea.
• A written idea into a drawing.
• A drawing into an equation.
• An equation into a conversation.
In the process of transforming it, you begin to spot new creative connections.
13. The Roman Empire Rule - Historians now recognize the Roman Empire fell in 476 - but it wasn't acknowledged by Roman society until many generations later.
If you wait for the media to inform you, you'll either be wrong or too late.
14. Physics Razor - If it doesn't deny the law of physics, then assume it's possible. Do not confuse society's current lack of knowledge -- with this knowledge being impossible to attain.
E.g. The smartphone seems impossible to someone from the 1800s -- but it was possible, they just had a lack of knowledge.
15. Skinner's Law - If procrastinating, you have 2 ways to solve it:
• Make the pain of inaction > Pain of action
• Make the pleasure of action > Pleasure of inaction
16. Network Razor - If you have 2 quality people that would benefit from an intro to one another, always do it.
Networks don't divide as you share them, they multiply.
17. Gell-Mann Razor - Assume every media article contains a % of false information.
Sandbox the article from your worldview until you've:
• Seen primary sources
• Spoken to 3 domain experts
18. Taleb's Surgeon - If presented with two equal candidates for a role, pick the one with the least amount of charisma.
The uncharismatic one has got there despite their lack of charisma. The charismatic one has got there with the aid of their charisma.
Montessori:
“Actually, it is useless to depend upon scolding and entreaties for the maintenance of discipline. These may at first give the illusion of being somewhat effective; but…
The Microsoft Excel Championship wrapped in Las Vegas last weekend.
Andrew “The Annihilator” Ngai won his 3rd straight title.
The Australian actuary beat 14 opponents in various 30-minute case study challenges.
Funniest part: this clip of live-stream announcers losing their minds over pivot tables and data labeling.
What did Ngai get for winning? A $15k cash prize and a glorious Wrestling Championship Belt 😂
The Microsoft Excel Championship wrapped in Las Vegas last weekend.
Andrew “The Annihilator” Ngai won his 3rd straight title.
The Australian actuary beat 14 opponents in various 30-minute case study challenges.
Funniest part: this clip of live-stream announcers losing their minds over pivot tables and data labeling.
What did Ngai get for winning? A $15k cash prize and a glorious Wrestling Championship Belt 😂
The problem is not always predominantly that the avoidant is deactivated. It's that *low relational/emotional awareness* caused them to miss a lot of legitimate signs of poor-fit early on. If partnered with someone anxious, they may be completely oblivious to those signs as well.
Literally did this multiple times over the past month.
Whats worse is everytime I think it won't get that far.
It does, so I don't ghost them but I explain what's going on. Then tell them we can't continue talking.
Literally causes a significant drop in my productivity.
Just got blocked by someone because they enjoyed talking to me too much and felt it was unsustainable, and it's not the first time this has happened to me.
Rizz is a false god
@stephenharlinmd @SocratesTrader 25 calls and 25 puts?
Wanted to ask because I'm curious
Are you running your analysis locally or remotely through a server?
Conditional probability clearly explained!
Imagine you don't just have to guess the future, but make accurate predictions about it based on what you already know!
In formal terms, conditional probability is the likelihood of an event occurring, given that another event has already taken place.
❗️It's like updating our beliefs based on new information.
Mathematically, the conditional probability of event B happening, given that event A has already occurred, is represented as P(B | A).
This is read as the probability of B given A.
To better understand this concept, let's consider a real-world example using a population of 14 individuals:
Event A: An individual loves football.
Event B: An individual loves tennis.
Here's how it looks👇
The stage is all set to understand conditional probability!
If you randomly select an individual, the chances of them loving tennis are 7/14 or 50%.
❗️Now, let's make it interesting. Suppose I tell you that the individual you're about to pick loves football.
What are the chances (probability) that they also love tennis?
This is where conditional probability comes in. The images below provide the answers and clarify everything.
Check it out👇
Real-Life Applications: Why should you care about conditional probability?
- When Netflix recommends you a movie , conditional probability is at work. The recommendations are based on what you already like.
- Insurance companies use conditional probability to assess the risk of an accident given certain conditions, like the driver’s age or the type of car they drive. This helps in determining insurance premiums.
- And there are many more applications!
That's all, if you’re interested in:
- Python🐍
- ML/MLOps🛠
- CV/NLP🗣
- LLMs🧠
Find me → @akshay_pachaar ✔️
Newsletter → https://t.co/Nm43nqDnpG
My Newsletter on AI Engineering!
Cheers!🥂