Random Swans

[UNITED24 Media @United24media]

"I want to hug my daughter; that is what I survived for,"

says a Ukrainian soldier who held his position against Russians for 86 days.

[Random Swans @RandomSwans]

@TotemMacro @TheChiefNerd He did choose his words carefully, without revealing his true feelings.

[Cyrus Janssen @thecyrusjanssen]

An Iranian man left this comment on my YouTube channel. This is without a doubt the single best explanation of the reality facing Iranian people today👇

"As an Iranian, I can tell you the situation is no longer just political—it's existential. We are trapped between two collapsing structures: one internal, one external. On one hand, we face a deeply dysfunctional government, led by the Supreme Leader and the Islamic Republic’s unelected institutions.

Decades of economic mismanagement, suppression of dissent, and brutal ideological control have alienated multiple generations. No one believes in reform anymore—because every attempt has either been co-opted or crushed. But here's the paradox: We are also terrified of regime collapse—because we've watched the aftermath of Western intervention in countries like Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Afghanistan. Each was promised freedom; each descended into chaos, civil war, or foreign occupation.

So no, we don't trust the U.S. or Israel. Not because we support our regime—but because we know how imperial powers treat ‘liberated’ nations in the Middle East.

Freedom, in their language, often means vacuum, fire, and permanent instability. Right now, many Iranians live with three truths at once: The Islamic Republic is morally and politically bankrupt. The alternatives offered by foreign actors are not liberation—they’re collapse.

A bad government is survivable. No government is not. We are not silent because we agree. We are cautious because we’ve learned—too well—what happens when superpowers decide to "help." In a sentence: Iran is a nation held hostage by its own regime, but haunted by the fate of its neighbors. We are stuck in a house we hate, surrounded by fires we fear more."

[Random Swans @RandomSwans]

@calvintsaikm Would you care to prove them wrong again?

[Random Swans @RandomSwans]

@sneedweb Griffin's Niederhoffer moment, perhaps?

[Random Swans @RandomSwans]

@cissan_9984 cis-san v2.0 will be more mature and more Druckenmiller-esque. 👍

[Random Swans @RandomSwans]

@cissan_9984 It's OK, cis-san. No big deal.

Soros lost 50% in one week in October 1987.

You're still ahead since June. Take some rest and come back fresh, please.

[Random Swans @RandomSwans]

@cissan_9984 Please stop trading now, cis-san. You're still in Revenge Trading mode. 😔 Accept the recent setback. Wait until you feel better.

[老周横眉 @laozhouhengmei]

川普在跟自己的偶像普京见面后，全身酥软。他刚刚提前透露了在接下来的会议中他将会对泽连斯基当面提出的要求：

1. 放弃克里米亚
2. 承诺永远不加入北约

川普之前自己说的什么二次经济制裁俄罗斯，什么普京言而无信，当普京在红地毯上向他眨了一下单眼后，川普心花怒放，颅内高潮，对普京说：

“甜心，你要的我全都给你。需要我转过身翘起屁股吗？”。

[老周横眉 @laozhouhengmei]

川普又被普京耍了。

美国总统史无前例亲自到机场迎接俄罗斯总统，那真是一个卑躬屈膝啊。

会议结束后，川普一贯的自吹自擂，但其实普京得到了一切，川普几乎什么都没得到。

这个会议之后，川普又被普京说服了，现在他同意普京，迈向和平的第一步是最终的和平协议，而不是先停火。

和平协议没有个一年半载根本不可能达成，所以普京又再一次获得了他最想要的拖延战术。

川普现在可以送给普京最大的礼物就是时间。

10月中旬以后，天气转凉、土地变软，推进将变得更加困难。俄罗斯军队必定会在10月中旬以前尽可能的往前推进，然后宣布又取得了重大成果。

本来川普说了好几次，什么不停火就要对俄罗斯进行第二次经济制裁的，但亲眼见到了他的偶像普京之后，他又被软化了。只差没有机会带他到一个私密房间里为普京精油推背了。

当美国的重罪犯亲自到机场迎接俄罗斯的战犯时，川普心中一定是认为彼此惺惺相惜的，但很明显的只有川普崇拜普京，普京必定是打心底看不起这傻缺的。

有人说川普必定有把柄在普京手上，否则无法解释这些行为，但我真不这么认为。

你看他在面对普京时候的那种谄媚和软弱，他是打心底崇拜普京的，更加羡慕人家所拥有的那种独裁权利。当一个人想跟自己打心底崇拜的偶像进行谈判，那必定会是一个输家。

[Random Swans @RandomSwans]

@acrossthespread Nikkei 43,000 structured product concentration? 🤔

[Random Swans @RandomSwans]

@acrossthespread Thanks!

[Random Swans @RandomSwans]

@elonmuskADO No.

[Random Swans @RandomSwans]

@iv_technicals Go, go, go. 👍

[Random Swans @RandomSwans]

@countdraghula "BUT inflation AND unemployment is much bigger than both."

Indeed 👍

[Random Swans @RandomSwans]

@AnilVohra1962 Thanks for the clear explanation and elaborations.

[Random Swans @RandomSwans]

@AnilVohra1962 Buying SoFi? 🤔