Raonekirk1

Aspiring Capital Allocator.

[Raonekirk1 @Raonekirk1]

Long way to go.

[jords @jords]

hyperliquid shines a very bright spotlight on how much better tokens can perform if they don't have horrendous tokenomics

uniswap, jupiter, maker, solana, aave, lido

it makes me so sad to think about what could have been, but if hype continues to win then it makes me happy for a potentially bright future

success gets replicated and i really hope we see a new era of tokens launched that walk in hype's footsteps

true wealth redistribution through a token is fulfilment of the crypto promise, it is us proving that there is a better way than the blackbox of tradfi

token and team alignment is so important and yet so rare, i dream of a future where this is not the case

[Raonekirk1 @Raonekirk1]

Before pump from 2.5 to 4+, volume was in $400k-$600k range.
Then $4M-$8M for 4 days. Then decreased and now sub $1M.

Looking weak in terms of price

[Raonekirk1 @Raonekirk1]

ethereum:0xe76c6c83af64e4c60245d8c7de953df673a7a33d
at the time of writing: $4.28

[Raonekirk1 @Raonekirk1]

RAILGUN : $RAIL https://t.co/r4jf6V8ta6

[Raonekirk1 @Raonekirk1]

Don't need to panic. Volume is 2X than previous day.
Last 2 days volume were 7-8X than usual earlier volume.

[jez (equity perps era) @izebel_eth]

@chimpfone actually true

[Raonekirk1 @Raonekirk1]

Third in a now.
Now my privacy bag is bleeding ethereum:0xe76c6c83af64e4c60245d8c7de953df673a7a33d

[Raonekirk1 @Raonekirk1]

I sold $Hype at $40 to enter at 25. I entered at 26 but sold at 32.

Same with ethereum:0x232ce3bd40fcd6f80f3d55a522d03f25df784ee2 but with loss.

Man, I am bad at trading and so do you.

[Raonekirk1 @Raonekirk1]

Okay my 2 smart followers, something to keep eye on:

1. Privacy protocols/tokens
2. HIP 4 -outcomes
3. Stablecoins in a Contract
4. Perps and regulation
5. DATs- Financial Engineering forum

[Raonekirk1 @Raonekirk1]

vaguely remembering GBTC and thesis written by many.

[Colasama @Colasama]

STRC has no legal obligation to maintain its $100 peg. STRC also has no legal obligation to pay its monthly dividend.

But come on, we all know shits gonne be worse than GBTC if STRC fails to do any of above.

[Raonekirk1 @Raonekirk1]

How should RAILGUN as a product be valued?
May be?
https://t.co/67kEop8Jqh

[Ethan @Ethanh141]

$RAIL investment thesis - Why I think this is a $20 coin priced at just under $4

@RAILGUN_Project enables privacy for onchain transactions with the ability to be used in DeFi, built on Ethereum and has been around since 2021

Users can shield funds, send, receive, swap, and interact with DeFi smart contracts with complete privacy all while having the ability to be compliant to any regulations with the power of Zero Knowledge proofs

The market has recently tipped its hand with the $ZEC outperformance that people do care about privacy, but what makes $RAIL stand out is that it allows you to interact with the largest DeFi ecosystem (Ethereum), that all the other privacy coins cannot

The upcoming Ethereum upgrade (Kohaku) that is being developed by @VitalikButerin and the ETH core devs, has a focus on privacy and in the code base is being set up with complete $RAIL integration

This has the potential to give every EVM wallet the ability to interact with the Rail Gun protocol natively. (A live demo is expected at ETH DevCon Nov 17-20)

Now, let's get into some math about the true magnitude of how $RAIL can benefit from this:

With the potential of every wallet on Ethereum to have Rail gun functionality, the TAM is massive. For my math I'm using the total bridged TVL onto Ethereum at $515 billion

The next question then becomes, "What % of the TAM would like to make private DeFi transactions?"

I think this number can range anywhere from 0.1% to 10% in the long run but below is a sensitivity with some conservative estimates coupled with Railgun's market share of this slice of the pie

Here we can estimate with a 70% market share, and 1.25% of the TAM making private transactions a potential TVL of $4.5 billion (Currently at $100 mill)

$RAIL charges a 0.25% fee on every shield and unshield into the protocol, so is revenue generating and also returns the revenue fully to $RAIL stakers (77% of the supply is staked currently with a 30 day unlock)

As @AvgJoesCrypto has noted, historically around 4% of the TVL has been Railgun's annualized revenue, with this number likely compressing as TVL grows. And currently sits at ~17x Price to revenue ratio

Based on these we can estimate a future price assuming our long term TVL above

This is how we get to our $20 price prediction and although there a lot of assumptions at play, I could see this going much higher assuming complete EVM wallet integration

Some of the biggest risks:
-timeline for EVM wallet integration being delayed heavily/doesn't happen
- another competitor comes in and dominates market share
- the DAO votes to reduce fees tremendously
- UX issues don't get resolved

Biggest tailwinds/catalysts:
- $ZEC pump indicating market desire for privacy
- DeFi growing exponentially over the coming months and years as institutions get onboarded
- Funds/institutions will require privacy solutions to actively trade in DeFi while also being compliant
- Being shilled by Vitalik
- Ability to expand to other chains

TL;DR regardless of what assumptions you go with, this to me feels like a billion dollar coin larping at just over $200 million

[Raonekirk1 @Raonekirk1]

How should RAILGUN as a product be valued?
May be?
https://t.co/67kEop8Jqh

[Raonekirk1 @Raonekirk1]

How much is the total on chain transaction volume per month like swaps,transfers,lend,borrow,loops?
What if 49% of that is routed through privacy protocols?

What if the protocols charge 0.005% for the transaction?

[Raonekirk1 @Raonekirk1]

Went through various old tweets related to railgun project, It seems OGs like/prefer it at both the tech level and compliance metric.

[Raonekirk1 @Raonekirk1]

One should read this to understand notion of privacy.
Its a non-tech general road map.

[Ethereum @ethereum]

16/ Truth is the Ethereum ecosystem needs a privacy glow-up.

The most comprehensive plan for an overhaul of Ethereum’s privacy is @pcaversaccio ‘Ethereum Privacy: The Road to Self-Sovereignity’.

This document makes clear just how deep the problem goes: https://t.co/qmBhTx55P0

[Raonekirk1 @Raonekirk1]

I was thinking of privacy which will be relevant either as a feature or as a product .

But no. Cyberphunk values it as a requirement by default.

[Ethereum @ethereum]

0/ Privacy in the Ethereum ecosystem is undergoing an evolution. A Renaissance, even, to sound a bit fancy.

What exactly is behind these changes and how might neo-Cypherpunk be involved?

A guest thread by @post_polar_ and @nicksvyaznoy.

[apoorv.eth @apoorveth]

Kohaku has been taking over the TL, but I haven't seen people actually using it

so I tried it out:

[Raonekirk1 @Raonekirk1]

@notwashed Yeah, railgun ends the need for private stablecoins as it serve the same puropose.

[Raonekirk1 @Raonekirk1]

@Evan_ss6 @TheShortBear If there are >=2 big entities using the chain, then they will have to acquire stake in the system fearing that other might do so to try to bend the rules in theor favour.

[Raonekirk1 @Raonekirk1]

@trevor_flipper Lighter is doing this to every token that it did to itself
https://t.co/8zu6LD3aYM

[Raonekirk1 @Raonekirk1]

1/2. New tokens or non-established and non-distributed(widely) tokens should primarily make their way through spot listing and then perps to avoid financial engineering by market participants.
This is for Railgun. RAIL

[Raonekirk1 @Raonekirk1]

If you are not a sophisticated market participant, you should not short in any case.

A very clear shorting oppurtunity was/is shorting stablecoins(ust) because the loss is/was capped.

[Raonekirk1 @Raonekirk1]

@cyberxtremog Wen will points programme end? June end?

[Raonekirk1 @Raonekirk1]

How much is the total on chain transaction volume per month like swaps,transfers,lend,borrow,loops?
What if 49% of that is routed through privacy protocols?

What if the protocols charge 0.005% for the transaction?