0xJason👾

partnerships & ecosystem @dfinity | 10+yrs in tradfi VC/M&A | alum @umich @pku1898 | not financial advice | EN/中文

[0xJason👾 @Real0xJason]

citi projects 200-600% CAGR over the next 5 years for tokenization

[Securitize @Securitize]

A new report from @Citi projects the tokenization market to reach $2.7 trillion to $8.2 trillion by 2030.

91% of that projected market is driven by tokenized stocks and bonds.

Even the bear case is bullish.

[0xJason👾 @Real0xJason]

@oragnes LITE, COHR都是CPO；plug-in的是AAOI；远距离光通信的就是NOK和CIEN，两家今年会拿下$10b来自hyperscalers的大单

[0xJason👾 @Real0xJason]

@myrawang0 中国人不骗中国人

[0xJason👾 @Real0xJason]

L2 is the vertical that raised the most amount of crypto vc funding

Starknet raised at $8b valuation - over 10x of that today

[Delphi Digital @Delphi_Digital]

Our new report "State of Token Markets" is live!

Most tokens spend their lifetime below launch price.

Across 540+ tokens launched since 2020, the average token spent 70% of its life below launch.

Tokens launched at inflated FDVs with minimal float, which handed the initial pop to insiders and farmers. The typical token underperformed BTC by 7% per unlock. By the tenth unlock that underperformance had compounded to -47%.

Now the model is shifting. Hyperliquid routes 97% of protocol fees into HYPE buybacks. Uniswap voted in December to burn $600M of supply and flip its fee switch, with the burn sized to match the fees holders would have received since 2018.

But buybacks alone aren't enough. Jupiter ran a similar program but had $3.78 in unlocks for every $1 bought back. Hyperliquid has been the outlier since no insider supply was fighting the bid. Buybacks only matter when supply discipline matches them.

Revenue alone doesn't guarantee market cap growth. Pump runs one of the largest onchain buyback programs but that hasn’t translated into durable token performance.

A revenue-weighted portfolio of the top 10 protocols by revenue returned 30% since January 2025 while BTC was down 17%.

The market is now paying for real cash flow.

[0xJason👾 @Real0xJason]

@imzhengan just telling what i see by observing the performance of this group of coins - how they been moving over the last 6 months

[0xJason👾 @Real0xJason]

it looks like we are now moving towards the bottom channel

patience

$BTC

[0xJason👾 @Real0xJason]

not predicting bitcoin price but always good to have a view on the market based on that

***not financial advice***

a typical cycle turn from bear to bull (for most risk assets) happens upon *bottom accumulation*, which features:

> a consolidation phase after several significant dips
> during a long enough period of time (def longer than 3-4 months)
> constantly more volume than prev. phases

if you look at the pattern during the 2022-23 bottom accumulation, it took place during a > 6-month period after at least 3 significant dips

i'm not sure if we are already in the bottom accumulation phase, but there is possibly another major dip(s) ahead

ofc history may or may not repeat itself, but bottom accumulation is necessary for asset price to get back up

[0xJason👾 @Real0xJason]

@imzhengan i think it follows the 'zcash group' in some systematic trading strategy on the market

[0xJason👾 @Real0xJason]

this is the best version of 'the alternative future' to the citrini article on the AI 2028

also i think there are other factors to consider:

> human being in general (not the small group of AI maxis) will get reluctant to adopting AI
> human coordination/relationship is still a critical part of work - non-replaceable by AI
> AI maxis are under-estimating certain barrier of some software companies

[David George @DavidGeorge83]

https://t.co/QXVYrAv6H4

[0xJason👾 @Real0xJason]

@ShanghaoJin 受教、感谢🙏 如平时碎片化地说得多了会影响操作，不如改成在substack上做更低频的记录。这样也可把内容分享限制在订阅者中，设立门槛来屏蔽没事老无脑黑或骂架的

[0xJason👾 @Real0xJason]

people are always fomo'in one and fudd'in the other among OpenAI and Anthropic - which is always proven wrong

both are going to do well

[Techmeme @Techmeme]

OpenAI releases a new report on knowledge work: Codex now has 5M+ weekly active users, up 6x+ since February, and knowledge workers are ~20% of Codex users (OpenAI)

(Visit Techmeme dot com for the link and full context!)

[0xJason👾 @Real0xJason]

bought it back😂 don't trade against the koreans

[0xJason👾 @Real0xJason]

sold my sk hynix position

[0xJason👾 @Real0xJason]

you just need to be patient waiting for the right moment, among a lot of noises on the way

[0xJason👾 @Real0xJason]

hear me out - we may have just been overcomplicating how bitcoin price moves

***not financial advice***

when everyone thought the 4-yr cycle had stopped working, it turned out correct again

why is it still working? because whether market is dominated by institutions or retails, everyone shares the greed and fear in exactly the same way

if humanity doesn't change, the cycle will continue, meaning:

> btc price to bottom in q3 '27 - to be confirmed by macd bottom signal
> price bottom in the $43-66k range
> btc price to top again in q3 '30 - to be confirmed by macd top signal
> price peak in the $180-250k range

this can be changed to some extent by several macro factors will impact it, such as the fed's policy, geopolitical tensions/wars, investor's behavior (like ai traders in the future will have different 'humanity') ...

you gonna say "this can't be right bc it's so obvious" but fact is that humanity and market never change

[0xJason👾 @Real0xJason]

@Anitahityou 事实证明，全民低下的小学算术水平是二次传播的关键

[0xJason👾 @Real0xJason]

英伟达也下场搞模型了，不过专注的是实体A：机器人、无人驾驶车辆等

[Techmeme @Techmeme]

Nvidia unveils Cosmos 3, an open physical AI foundation model, to help robots and autonomous cars better understand the real world with limited training data (@inafried / Axios)

(Visit Techmeme dot com for the link and full context!)

[0xJason👾 @Real0xJason]

the success of the SpaceX IPO is mandatory for the entire United States now

[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO:

Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5.

This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations.

Bloomberg Intelligence estimates S&P 500 funds must absorb 19% of SpaceX's float within 6 months.

Russell 1000 and Nasdaq 100 funds will absorb 24%.

The rules built to protect passive investors:

1. S&P 500 has required 12 months of trading and 4 quarters of GAAP profitability since 2002. Both waived.

2. Nasdaq cut its inclusion window from 90 trading days to 15.

3. FTSE Russell cut its to 5.

All three benchmarks are now structured to buy SpaceX at IPO pricing.

[0xJason👾 @Real0xJason]

everyone is complaining about opus 4.8 (and 4.7) and lots of people are switching to chatgpt

this is exactly why i said nothing will go a straight line to the moon and why i passed the $900+b valuation round

i'm not bearish about Anthropic though, nor about OpenAI

[0xJason👾 @Real0xJason]

one of my biggest regrets last yr is missing anthropic @ $70 b valuation (had a secondary opportunity then)

i only aped in @ $200+b and then again @ $300+b

but i wouldn't take more here @ $900+b considering all the fees + carries + lockup

i'm confident about anthropic; i'm just not sure if it's going straight line to $2 trillion after the ipo

it's been fomo'ed for ever and i actually see chance you can buy its public stock at $1-1.5 trillion - there could always been a dip or sth going wrong

timing is important for vc investment - if you aren't early enough then don't get in

there could be something else you can be earlier for than those already super hyped pre-ipo companies

[0xJason👾 @Real0xJason]

treasury bills and commodities are still dominating - we are so early on rwa tokenization

[Leon Waidmann @LeonWaidmann]

Tokenized assets are no longer just Treasurys and gold.

They still dominate.

But the market is clearly diversifying.

At ~$34B total market size:

🔹 U.S. Treasurys remain the largest category
🔹 Commodities are still a major share
🔹 Asset-backed credit is growing fast
🔹 Special finance is gaining share
🔹 Stocks, non-US gov debt, and active strategies are emerging

The key shift:

In early 2024, tokenized assets were almost entirely Treasurys + commodities.

Today, new categories are taking real share.

Tokenization started with the easiest assets.

Now it is moving into the broader financial system.

[0xJason👾 @Real0xJason]

why am i seeing lots of contents by unfollowed accounts even under the 'followed' tab on my timeline? @grok

[0xJason👾 @Real0xJason]

@bboczeng Amazon

[0xJason👾 @Real0xJason]

3月31号call抄底；5月14号用 $GOOG 换 $MSFT，bill ackman 还是NB的

[0xJason👾 @Real0xJason]

@RYANHINGSHING MSFT是终点光明，但旅途漫长并且一路上被反复、多次错杀，不知道还要多久。不过bill ackman的track record似乎不错的