AZKicks

Delete Delete Delete .hl

[AZKicks @RealAZKicks]

@AviFelman Hyperliquid

[AZKicks @RealAZKicks]

Haippu Rikkido

[Brian Armstrong @brian_armstrong]

Big month @Coinbase:

- First company bringing global crypto perps + options to the US in a compliant way
- Official USDC treasury deployer for @HyperliquidX
- Gold & silver perps now live outside the US (coming to the US soon)
- Partnered with Standard Chartered to expand global fiat access for institutional clients

+ more in the article below:

[AZKicks @RealAZKicks]

Haippu Rikkido

[Coinbase Markets 🛡️ @CoinbaseMarkets]

An entirely new trading product is coming to Coinbase.

[VIKTOR @thedefivillain]

What is most likely going to happen with $STRC:

- It's going to keep dumping with BTC until BTC finds a bottom, at which point it's going to bottom too. Maybe around $90, maybe here if BTC doesn't move further down (hmm)

- Once BTC bounces again, STRC will bounce too as people will play the "repeg trade".

- The dividend rate is likely to be increased, because the 30-day VWAP will probably be below $99.

- STRC might take some time to get back to par, but once BTC finds a bottom and people realize the dividend will get paid, it should have a magnet towards $100.

- If the mNAV remains below 1.22x, Strategy will have to sell either $MSTR shares or $BTC to fund the monthly dividend payments. They would sell BTC only if mNAV is below 1.22x. They have been selling MSTR shares every month since STRC inception to pay the dividends, so that's really nothing new (!)

- The current dividend burden is $1.7bn annually, corresponding to less than $150M a month. Let's say this goes to $200M a month in case they raise the dividend rate a lot. So this means that in the worst case scenario, we would have $200M sell pressure a month on BTC... which is a drop in the bucket.

The market is freaking out about a sub $200M monthly sell pressure, this looks like a wild overreaction to me. As a reference, the German government sold around $3bn worth of BTC in less than a month during the summer of 2024...

(That being said, the pronounced relative weakness of BTC relative to stocks is more concerning and makes the dip buying much less straightforward here)

[AZKicks @RealAZKicks]

@FabianoSolana T-2 months to fabiano.hl

[AZKicks @RealAZKicks]

@based16z What's personal freedom if you can't imprison yourself in your possessions once you get there

[AZKicks @RealAZKicks]

@andy8052 All your inventory belongs to me

[AZKicks @RealAZKicks]

Hyperliquid

[Tarek Mansour @mansourtarek_]

1992: Robert Shiller introduces the concept of perpetual futures.

2026: The first American perpetual future trade in history.

34 years in the making.

[AZKicks @RealAZKicks]

Hey mom I made it

[AZKicks @RealAZKicks]

@poke_maam This is mostly correct, will try to write a real response later.

[AZKicks @RealAZKicks]

The most significant difference is that packs are themed / coherent and gachas are not. That isn't necessarily a positive or a negative depending on the user's goals, but gachas are obviously not useful to masterset and things like that that collectors love to do.

Gachas are also generally useless for non-slabs and I honestly want someone to emerge as a leader in sealed gachas because that market is woefully underpriced relative to slabs right now. Slabs are parabolically overpriced but also won't slow down at the top end bc infinite bid on anything worth owning while gacha wars rage.

[AZKicks @RealAZKicks]

@andy8052 @bread_ @MoonOverlord Yes to be clear EV of ripping a modern pack is like -70%, and that's assuming you got it at MSRP, which you didn't, and that's assuming you bought a lot of packs at scale, which you probably didn't.

[AZKicks @RealAZKicks]

@dschamis @elonmusk @SpaceX @HyperliquidX Giving away 40% of value to Fidelity and Goldman is pretty brutal @elonmusk.

[AZKicks @RealAZKicks]

In fairness their volume, oi, txn, etc., were never this high organically (this was also incentivized TGE run up volumes from Justin and some MMs) so again Vlad the trader king shot himself in the foot (or face) by putting in a high water mark that was never sustainable without aggressive incentives to a handful of privileged parties. Ironically this makes them look much more downbad than they actually would be.

Whoops.

[AZKicks @RealAZKicks]

@DeeZe @notthreadguy @tulipking @inversebrah

[AZKicks @RealAZKicks]

@notthreadguy brother you're kinda missing the point.

The business model should not work this way but retail is stupid (the leaders in the space don't act this way) - @phygitals @Courtyard_io and @ArenaClub (and a lot of smaller gachas) are absolutely predatory in terms of buyback. That's why none of them are relevant at scale.

Also very incorrect re the 'no one is redeeming' but that's a separate conversation.

[AZKicks @RealAZKicks]

@koolkrypto223 @veilGazer @Lighter_xyz @HyperliquidX "Trust me bro".

I'm obviously not posting private conversations on X.

I might just be a larp on the internet, who knows.

[AZKicks @RealAZKicks]

Ok lets make this much simpler.

Lighter's revenue generation is bad.

Their market cap is /absolutely obliterated/ so their meager revenue contributes a larger % of buybacks because they're down so bad.

Now the price has doubled without really any meaningful changes in OI or volumes. Fundamentals haven't changed.

That cuts the buyback in half in terms of yield %.

As price goes up more (if it does) it continues to diminish the yield %.

It isn't durable, it isn't scalable.

Beyond that it should trade at a meaningful discount from a multiple POV to Hype, so trading anywhere near equivalent yield % (which is a dumb metric because LIT will dump a huge portion of tokens that obliterates the entirety of what has been bought) already means LIT is overpriced, at least on that metric.

[AZKicks @RealAZKicks]

Part of me isn't clear if this is a sincere question or not - but assuming it is -

The #1 in any category trades at a multiple premium to anyone else in the category, especially in winner take all categories. LIT by default trades at a discount. When you realize the #2 perpdex (https://t.co/qj9v45wBoo) is *also built on top of Hyperliquid* and that Lighter is, at best, #4-5, you should be in massive multiple discount territory. (Again, you were trying to argue this is a fundamental trade).

[AZKicks @RealAZKicks]

Because Hype actual has a viable revenue model, massive liquidity + OI blackhole, and a legion of very active and increasingly large traders engaged?

LIT has a shitty revenue model, minimal to no organic volumes, paid MMs, and a gaping hole in relevant OI.

LIT's buyback % has already evaporated at these prices we hit today, so the catch up trade (as you're framing it) is over.