Rob Hawkins

Asset Management

[Milk Road Crypto @milkroaddaily]

.@fundstrat thinks crypto winter may already be ending, and Wall Street could be caught underexposed.

His setup: cash on the sidelines + ETH outperforming + regulatory catalysts + investors rotating back from AI.

If institutions start performance chasing, he expects a “huge institutional bid” into year-end.

FT @BitcoinJesusETH

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⏱ TIME POINTS ⏱
00:00 - Intro
01:12 - Historic Crypto Short Squeeze
02:52 - Pullback or New Bull Market?
04:40 - Ethereum & the “Uncanny Valley of Wealth”
09:07 - The Tokenization Supercycle
13:09 - Wall Street Is Building on Ethereum
16:15 - Why AI Agents Need Crypto Rails
19:28 - Sponsor: Saber Money
20:08 - Why BitMine Keeps Buying ETH
25:40 - Ethereum’s Evolving Ecosystem
28:22 - Ethereum: The Root of Global Finance?
32:28 - ETH vs. Bitcoin: Why ETH Could Win
37:09 - Wrap-Up

[Fundstrat Direct @FundstratDirect]

.@MarkNewtonCMT on @YahooFinance: it's "really difficult" to be bearish right now.

$BTC crossed $80,000 briefly for the first time in 15 weeks, up 22% since last Wednesday.

Fundstrat's Crypto Market Update covered the technical read on $BTC, $ETH, $HYPE, $FIGR, $WGMI, and more.

Watch now:https://t.co/RmKrCu64nf

[Fundstrat Direct @FundstratDirect]

The end of the crypto winter doesn't mean a straight line up.

@fundstrat's Tom Lee on how to pivot your thinking as a crypto spring begins. Plus: Fundstrat's updated stock lists→https://t.co/SGqvnPPk5C

[Tom Lee Tracker (Not actually Tom) @TomLeeTracker]

FUNDSTRAT’S MARK NEWTON SAYS STOCKS COULD HIT NEW HIGHS AS SOON AS NEXT WEEK

The potential game changer is Treasury support on rates and liquidity:

- The Treasury put is around 4.75% on the 10-year and potentially 5.30% on the 30-year
- A reflationary setup could ease liquidity concerns, with gold and Bitcoin bitcoin:native already surging
- Rates and crude pushing higher can pressure stocks near term, but improving breadth and ongoing skepticism remain bullish for the S&P 500 $SPX and Qs $QQQ

[Top Dividend ETFs @TopDividendETFs]

$QQQI ETF is only up ~ 1% YTD (price return)

Yet has over 14B in AUM

Do you think this is the best high income ETF or overhyped?

[Fundstrat Direct @FundstratDirect]

"I do think it's a game changer."

@MarkNewtonCMT on @CNBCClosingBell on what the Treasury's move means for equities into Jackson Hole.

He and @fundstrat's Tom Lee went deeper on this during yesterday's macro webinar, plus Fundstrat's updated stock list →https://t.co/YZabPSq4EE

[Jim Furey @StocksStrategy]

Might BTC's correction be ending? Odds favor it ending. 11 months in, from strong support, it is rising powerfully this week on good volume (still only Wednesday) & it is eclipsing its downtrend (on the arithmetic chart attached). 75k and 200 DMA are next resistance to test if this is real. Absolutely a key moment given if the support had failed it would have been a swift move down significantly.

[Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FundstratDirect.com @fundstrat]

Inflation is on a glide path lower

Please Get the premium service “first word” at https://t.co/AKBj6hQsjN @fundstratdirect 🥇 Use evidenced based research to understand markets and build a portfolio PS: Free 30-day trial FYI 🆓 😍

[NEOS Investments @NEOSInvestments]

We're excited to announce that @NEOSInvestments is joining Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

Together, we'll combine NEOS’ innovative investment platform with Goldman’s global scale and resources seeking to bring even greater value to our investors, all while preserving the team, philosophy and investor-first culture that define NEOS.

Hear directly from our founders about this exciting news in the video below:

[High Yield Hustle @HighYieldHustle]

Dripping your dividends can be a massive mistake.

Most people either blindly DRIP everything or panic sell the second a fund gets volatile.

Neither builds real income. This is how you build a real income stacking engine. 🧵👇

[Phil Trubey @PTrubey]

Citadel is not the bad guy in this story.

When you are investing billions and make 20x returns in 2 years, you attract the notice of all the hedge funds. It was obvious to everyone that Leopold had to be using excessive leverage to get those returns.

Taking out a player who doesn't have enough liquidity to cover leverage and manage a downturn is so common on Wall Street, it's one of their basic tools to enhance their own returns.

No, the person who should be blamed for Leopold's implosion is Leopold himself.

Hedge funds do use *some* leverage themselves, but boy do they analyze the snot out of those positions to ensure what happened to Leopold doesn't happen to them. Leopold either didn't do that basic analysis or got it comically wrong.

Players like Citadel actually *help* the market by taking out the yahoos who end up causing excessive market volatility through leverage. If you know you could get pounced on by the likes of Citadel, then you won't put yourself in a position to be pounced on and thus won't cause undue market volatility.

[Goshawk Trades @GoshawkTrades]

a 24-year-old ex-openai researcher ran a fund to $45 billion with eight people, was up 439% net through june, and by the end of july had sold his entire public stock portfolio to ken griffin in a single block trade.

griffin described this exact failure mode two years ago, asked why portfolio managers wash out at citadel:

"you have a portfolio that is extraordinarily highly concentrated, you have large positions, you cannot demonstrate a clear and concise competitive advantage in why you own those positions."

"and there are some people that just, with full information, are unable to help themselves and get to a better portfolio construction."

he was also asked the opposite question in the same interview, why citadel keeps working, his third and final answer was this:

"it's experience. it's the price paid in losses and pain that converts into wisdom. my leadership team, we've been through a lot of very difficult moments of the markets together. we've learned some very bitter lessons. but it makes us much more effective as investors in periods of turmoil and crisis."

citadel started in november 1990. situational awareness started in 2024, long AI infrastructure and short software at roughly 4x leverage. both legs went against it in the same three weeks.

there was no bitter lesson priced into that book yet.

that's what got bought.

he wasn't wrong about AI. he was wrong about the construction of his book.

[Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FundstratDirect.com @fundstrat]

🧵
1/
Today is FOMC rate decision day with a rate decision at 2pm ET

- markets expect no change, fed futures 32% chance of hike
- our team compiled comments from 12 voting members since June meeting
- 3 of 12 hawkish comments
- 2 of 12 dovish comments
- Warsh multiple times, neutral-ish

[Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FundstratDirect.com @fundstrat]

For those wondering which financial institutions support the CLARITY ACT

➡️ @GoldmanSachs
➡️ @BlackRock
➡️ @Fidelity
➡️ @FTI_US Franklin Templeton
➡️ @CharlesSchwab

Congress needs to act and pass this bill

@coinbase @RVanGrack
@FundstratDirect @FundstratCap @BitMNR
$BMNR $BMNP

[High Yield Hustle @HighYieldHustle]

Everyone holds $CHPY.

Most don’t run it the optimal way.

Here’s how you fix that. 🧵👇

[High Yield Hustle @HighYieldHustle]

TappAlpha: $TDAQ

Typically when you think 0DTE income you think massive yield and over payment. Therefore nav erosion.

TappAlpha flips that. They hold QQQM and only look to scrap a little income off the top each day.

That leads to a steady nav and high 17% yield.

[High Yield Hustle @HighYieldHustle]

SPYI & QQQI do this with a basic monthly covered call strategy.

The calls are sold far out of the money which is what I always look for.

The other factor is how much of the holding they actually sell calls on.

NEOS only sells calls on the notional value they need to hit the yield target.

That leaves a high % of the holding running free to keep the nav steady.

[High Yield Hustle @HighYieldHustle]

Not knowing your high yield ETF layers can get you crushed.

Tier 1 Core: Indexed names paying 7-17%. Set & forget. No management needed.

Tier 2 Core: indexed funds paying 20-40%. Timing and management are needed to maintain nav health.

Funnels: Single stocks and ultra high yielders. Dividends flow into tier 1. Meant to swing trade.

[High Yield Hustle @HighYieldHustle]

High Yield ETFs that can get you gains during volatility:

$XLVI 11% yield
$MLPI 15% yield
$ANV 17% yield
$XLEI 19% yield
$AHD 27% yield

[Fundstrat Direct @FundstratDirect]

Q2 earnings season is off to a strong start. 94% of companies are beating earnings estimates. Median beat of 7%. On the top line, 83% of companies are beating estimates.

How will the rest of the season fare? Tom Lee's team has the take that isn't on CNBC:https://t.co/QvgKN74DB4