Reaper

Prov 28:20
A faithful man will be richly blessed, but one eager to get rich will not go unpunished.

[Reaper @ReaperL05]

comparing some pivotal moments:

1. Jan 2022 - Powell signalling raising rate, the market was complacent and underestimating the how long it would go
2. April 2025 - Tarriff bottom, market did not price in TACO/pivot
3. Mar 2026 - war may go on longer than expected and inflation may run higher for longer

it is pretty hard to short indices as many names are down 10-20% from the high and spx is only 3% off, but it is very evident to me that the risk appetite is shrinking

think about the order of recent corrections:
crypto ->gold/silver->ewy->?

trash(higher risk beta) tends to correct first and it is fitting that spx corrects last when the nothing-ever-happens crowd get louder

another perspective: druck bottom-up philosophy but reaper approach

on a local level, we have seen most of the good earnings trigger a sell the news event, so we have
good news -> sell the news
bad news -> sell the news on steroid

its prudent to be careful out there.
its a scalper paradise, nothing more

[CryptoCondom @crypto_condom]

Markets remain overly optimistic how long this conflict may last and what collateral damage may occur.
Risk continues to be mispriced imo.

[Wazz @WazzCrypto]

So the new meta is sending free coins to notorious onchain rapists and extractors who have pillaged the trenches for years, making them even richer for no reason, and calling that "Return to memes"

Lol, send this whole industry to 0

[Reaper @ReaperL05]

Doesn’t matter if everyone is looking at the same level because when it comes everyone will call for lower/higher

What matters is to plan your trade and trade your plan, everything else is noise

[Reaper @ReaperL05]

@stoicsavage Or the solution has actually not changed but people choose Saylor as a leader and it has failed

[Reaper @ReaperL05]

not looking great

[Reaper @ReaperL05]

20% drop on $AAPL isn’t out of reach from here imo

[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

Apple: Never seen a component price increase this much and quickly. $AAPL

[Reaper @ReaperL05]

Dis why the 3 body problem is a lot harder to address when underlying asset (btc) is trending down

[VIKTOR @thedefivillain]

How can you write this all tweet without ever mentioning the price of BTC and/or the leverage ratio of MSTR?

I imagine that your 15-20% estimate is conditional on the current leverage ratio of MSTR, but you should make that explicit. If the price of BTC goes up, the yield you're asking for should go down, and the opposite is obviously true too.

[Reaper @ReaperL05]

Probably not happening

[Flood @ThinkingUSD]

No bottom until Saylor sells a few billion into a huge V bottom recovery

[Reaper @ReaperL05]

@Tom__Capital bro its ok shes not replying

[DonAlt @DonAlt]

So do I get this right

>Saylor buys BTC
>Issues STRC
>Buys more BTC with proceeds as market goes up
>Average buy price of infinity
>Eventually market goes down
>STRC depegs
>Saylor sells BTC below his average to repeg STRC
>Market moves even lower below his average
>Sells even more BTC to repay STRC
>Eventually market recovers
>Saylor issues more STRC
>Buys now more expensive BTC
>Repeat

I'm a duck but even to me this sounds very retarded
If I understand this correctly it's the worst ponzi I've ever seen

[Reaper @ReaperL05]

@DonAlt Pretty much

[Reaper @ReaperL05]

$MU might have topped for a little while?

[Reaper @ReaperL05]

@awawat @0xLucidDream because CL always steals one of them

[Reaper @ReaperL05]

Knicks worked harder, much harder

Very well deserved

Wemby needs to rewatch and see how much harder Brunson worked every possession

[jez (equity perps era) @izebel_eth]

jokes aside, going to sign off on this note before going to bed:

im one of the bigger crypto believers i know, and these past six months have tested me like no other bear has, mainly for the fact that i don't see any easy way out/reason it'd turn around quickly

people are leaving who wont come back right away, capital continues to choose better opportunities with more certainty, dat overhangs will cast a long shadow

and thats coming from a position of strength, spot/cash - those who believed on leverage or picked the wrong coins are going through worse trials

its going to get worse before it gets better

but it will get better, it always does, theres a finite supply of btc in an infinite money printing world, and some day in the next year after leaving and not paying attn those people will realize btc is 80k again, and if it can survive saylor it can survive anything

[Reaper @ReaperL05]

@__bleeker $250 now crazy

[Reaper @ReaperL05]

That’s why I don’t understand why the OG hype whales calling for no future airdrops, very short sighted at best

Imajin the fomo if/when point season goes live, the animal spirit of all retails and institutions, and revenue buybacks that follow

Burning supply is the dumb move

[NMTD.HL @NMTD8]

Imagine 5-10x elevated activity for 12 months as the masses come to discover the house of all finance.

CT, TradFi, misssooors & even bears all piling in to farm S3 points.

15-20M USD buyback & burn days becoming the norm.

4 digit $HYPE.

Season 3 waiting room.

Hyperliquid.

[Reaper @ReaperL05]

@0xRacist Name checks out

[Reaper @ReaperL05]

@__bleeker Champion adjusts they say

[Reaper @ReaperL05]

@Rewkang @Bluntz_Capital @cobie it’s time
@UpOnlyTV

[Reaper @ReaperL05]

@skyquake_1 Ahh was wondering why, so are we providing a little liquidity in this instance?