NBA Regular Season Recap🏀
+154.9u💰
+51.45% ROI💎
368 Bets🎫
Since November 24th up to April 13th, I had a ton of fun betting on the NBA this year especially in the month of April.
- First season properly capping and tracking, and I’m really happy with how it turned out. We covered everything from straights, ladders, live betting, parlays, longshots, ML parlays, and 1Q props, but always with the same goal: finding value and trying to maintain an edge over the books.
- All of this is done with proper unit management. If we have a bad day, we don’t panic, we trust the process and make it back over time without chasing plays
- I do run higher unit plays here and there, but only when I’m very confident and there’s clear value. If a play loses, you take accountability and move forward the right way.
- The goal is simple: build the bankroll over the season, not in 1 night, 1 week, or 1 month.
- Also, going into my first NBA postseason capping, so let's see what we get out of it. There will be a mixture of live bets, straights and maybe ladders, but it all depends on lines and value. Let's have a great Post-season & join the telegram for every play for 𝐅𝐑𝐄𝐄
Here is my full P/L - https://t.co/GouSN2G6J2
Join the telegram for 𝐅𝐑𝐄𝐄 - https://t.co/1o32Nl3FdV
APRIL IS GOING OFF IN THE TELEGRAM 🚀💣
NBA:
+53.6u💰
99 Bets💎
Great month so far the tasty part of the season is just starting in the NBA, get involved FREE telegram⏬
https://t.co/wufT1NXASZ
NBA Post-Season #3🏀
1u💰
⭐️Kevin Durant Assists🪜
6+ @ 2.5 (0.5u)
8+ @ 5.25 (0.35u)
10+ @ 15 (0.15u)
Data provided by @statyxio🚀
- This comes down to how the Lakers are likely to defend KD. JJ Redick has already shown a tendency to send doubles at primary creators, and we’ve seen it clearly against OKC this season.
- When they doubled SGA, it forced the ball out of his hands and into playmaking situations, and he cleared his assist line in all three matchups, putting up 8 / 7 / 9 assists vs the Lakers.
- The same setup applies here. If KD is seeing consistent doubles, the natural outcome is that he finds open shooters, especially with the Lakers willing to live with others beating them.
- We’ve already seen flashes of this in KD’s matchups vs LAL. He’s gone under this line in 2/3, but in the Christmas game, after starting 0/4 and then making 7 straight field goals, the Lakers began doubling him. Once that happened, the assists followed; he finished with 6 assists in the second half alone (3 in the 3rd, 3 in the 4th).
- The key difference here is the situation. In a high-leverage / playoff environment, it’s unlikely the Lakers let KD get comfortable early. They’ll look to send help quicker and force the ball out of his hands from the start.
- That game plan plays directly into KD’s assist upside, shifting him from scorer to facilitator.
- He’s also had 10, 10, and 15 potential assists in the three H2Hs, while making 46, 48, and 39 passes, so the playmaking opportunities have clearly been there.
Film Below⏬
MLB POTD⚾️
⭐️Brandon Sproat o1.5 Walks
(1.73 Boyle | 1.37 units)
Data Provided by @statyxio 🚀
- Sproat has struggled badly with control to start the season, issuing 10 walks in just 9.4 innings across his last 3 outings.
- He’s gone over this line in all 3 starts, and it’s not fluky the underlying numbers back it. Low 20% K rate, combined with a 33.6% chase rate allowed, shows hitters are comfortable taking pitches against him.
- His command just isn’t there right now. He’s consistently working deep counts and putting himself in tough spots, which naturally leads to giving up walks.
- This is also a tough matchup vs Toronto. They’ve got multiple patient hitters throughout the lineup who are more than happy to take walks and extend AB's.
- With how his command looks right now, 2+ walks is a strong outcome here.
MLB POTD⚾️
⭐️Brandon Sproat o1.5 Walks
(1.73 Boyle | 1.37 units)
Data Provided by @statyxio 🚀
- Sproat has struggled badly with control to start the season, issuing 10 walks in just 9.4 innings across his last 3 outings.
- He’s gone over this line in all 3 starts, and it’s not fluky the underlying numbers back it. Low 20% K rate, combined with a 33.6% chase rate allowed, shows hitters are comfortable taking pitches against him.
- His command just isn’t there right now. He’s consistently working deep counts and putting himself in tough spots, which naturally leads to giving up walks.
- This is also a tough matchup vs Toronto. They’ve got multiple patient hitters throughout the lineup who are more than happy to take walks and extend AB's.
- With how his command looks right now, 2+ walks is a strong outcome here.
NBA Postseason Day 1 Recap ⬇️
Pre-game:
LaMelo Ball Assists 🪜 8+/10+ ✅
Robert Williams III o5.5 Points ❌
Coby White o11.5 Points ✅
Live:
Miles Bridges 5+ 3’s ✅
6+ 3’s ❌
Andrew Wiggins o20.5 Points ✅
Kon Knueppel o6.5 Points ❌
Donovan Clingan 14+ Rebounds ❌
Overall: 4-4 on the day / +3.29u
Good start to the postseason. Hit some nice spots pre-game and found value live as always.
We keep building from here 📈
Post-Season Bet #2 🏀
1.30u💰
Tristan Da Silva Points🪜
o6.5 @ 1.95 (1.05u)
10+ @ 3.50 (0.3u)
Data provided by @statyxio 🚀
- Da Silva has been a key piece for Orlando all season, playing a consistent off-ball role where he can pick up easy points.
- This matchup suits him well. Philly ranks #18 in transition defence and #25 in fast break points allowed, which fits where a lot of his scoring comes from.
- He’s hit this line in 15 of 17 games against teams in this range, averaging 13.4 PPG.
- The shot profile lines up, too. 41% of his scoring comes from spot-ups, and Philly ranks #21 defending spot-ups, so the looks should be there.
- Against average to weaker catch-and-shoot defences (18–28), he’s gone 6/7 over this line. He had 10 points in his last game vs Philly, so we’ve already seen it translate.
Data below⬇️
Post-Season Bet #1 🏀
1.35u💰
Lamelo Ball Assists 🪜
8+ @ 2.1 (1u)
10+ @ 3.5 (0.35u)
Data provide by @statyxio 🚀
- Fast-paced match-up against the Heat in a do-or-die situation, can see LaMelo playing 35+ minutes if this stays close.
- He’s heavily involved as both a primary ball handler and facilitator, giving him strong assist upside. The ball is in his hands every possession, and he’s cleared 7.5 assists in 7 of his last 10, averaging 11 potential assists per game.
- Miami allow plenty to PGs, especially in terms of assists ranking #28 in the league in assists allowed to the position and with the pace in this game, the opportunities should be there again. He’s recorded 9, 13, and 5 assists in his last three matchups vs Miami.