Richard Ina, AAMS®

Partner at NewEdge Wealth
Forbes Best-In-State Advisor
Over 30 years of industry experience

[Bluekurtic Market Insights @Bluekurtic]

This time, bulls went into hibernation. AAII bullish sentiment fell to just 28.8% this week, even with the S&P 500 near its highs.

$SPX was higher 1 month later 100% of the time, with a 3.2% median gain. Bulls, now's the time to wake up.

[Tom Lee Tracker (Not actually Tom) @TomLeeTracker]

TOM LEE SAYS ONE OF THE BIGGEST RALLIES OF OUR LIFETIME COULD BE STARTING

He thinks the fourth quarter could mark the beginning of a much larger move into next year:

- Lee says the S&P 500 $SPX could easily finish above 8,200 by year end
- Tech is expected to do much of the heavy lifting, with the Mag 7 and software names starting to come back to life
- As long as the AI trade stays intact, he expects the current correction to give way to a major year-end rally

[Nick Gerli @nickgerli1]

U.S. Mortgage Applications just fell back to the lowest level since 1995.

And are now down 50% from the pandemic peak.

Demand to buy with a mortgage today is shockingly at the same level as 31 years ago, even though U.S. population is 30% higher.

The reason demand is so low is due to sky-high home prices, which are in a massive bubble.

To go along with sky-high prices, mortgage rates are now back to normal at 7%.

Meaning the vast majority of buyers can't afford it, with the typical household needing to spend nearly 40% of their gross income on house payments.

This historic demand collapse will not improve until home prices drop meaningfully.

And the situation is becoming especially dire in America's highest cost markets.

Check your ZIP on Reventure to see where your market ranks: https://t.co/f4qNQ29CIP

[Justin Banks @RealJGBanks]

I just found the CRAZIEST Market statistics

Save this. This is the investing roadmap to RETIREMENT.

19 FOR 19.

Since 1950, the S&P 500 $SPY has been higher 12 months after EVERY midterm.

19 midterms.
19 times higher.

Average gain: ~16%.

21 FOR 21.

Since 1942, EVERY November-through-June period following a midterm has been positive.

21 straight.

Average gain: +16.6%.

YEAR 3 HAS HISTORICALLY BEEN THE STRONGEST.

The year after midterms has historically been the strongest year of the 4-year presidential cycle.

LPL’s 1950+ data puts the average around +18%.

This is why a difficult midterm year does NOT tell you what comes next.

19/19.
21/21.

Then historically the strongest year of the cycle.

This is when you strike. Stay patient for my NEXT move.

[Peter Mallouk @PeterMallouk]

Wondering which month is the best time to start investing?
The right answer is any month. Just start!

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi]

S&P 500 multiple contraction continues... down to a 19x P/E
Nasdaq 100 very close to its 20yr median at 24x

[Justin Banks @RealJGBanks]

THE NEXT 10 YEARS WILL RETIRE MANY WHO FOLLOW

KEEP this. Do not lose it. Use it.

Many will chase whatever is already moving.

I’m watching where money is being FORCED to go next.

PHASE 1 - BUILD THE AI STACK

AI Chips: $NVDA $AVGO $AMD

Foundries / Semi Equipment: $TSM $ASML

Memory / HBM: $MU $SNDK

Photonics / Optics: $AAOI $LITE

Networking: $ANET $CRDO $MRVL

Data Centers: $IREN $APLD

Cooling / Infrastructure: $SMCI $DELL

Digital Infrastructure: $EQIX

Storage: $HPE

GPU Cloud: $CRWD $NBIS

Edge AI: $QCOM $ARM

Electrical Equipment: $NVT

Cybersecurity: $CRWD

PHASE 2 - SOLVE THE POWER PROBLEM

Grid Infrastructure: $HUBB

Power Producers: $CEG

Natural Gas / Turbines: $GEV

On-Site Power: $BE

Energy Storage: $EOSE

Nuclear: $OKLO $SMR

Fusion: Emerging / mostly private

Copper: $FCX

Critical Minerals: $ALB

Rare Earths: $MP $USAR

Electrification: $TE

PHASE 3 - AI ENTERS THE PHYSICAL WORLD

AI Applications: $PLTR $SNOW

Robotics: $TSLA $SYM

Autonomy: $JOBY

Drones: $AVAV $RCAT $ONDS

Defense Tech: $KTOS $LMT

Space: $RKLB $ASTS

Quantum: $IONQ $QBTS

The opportunity isn’t finding one “AI stock.”

It’s understanding what has to be built next.

FOLLOW THE BOTTLENECKS. FOLLOW THE CAPITAL.

[Richard Ina, AAMS® @RichInaNEW]

Thought of the Week: "You'll never do a whole lot unless you're brave enough to try.” - Dolly Parton, singer

[Peter Mallouk @PeterMallouk]

Many investors want the long-term returns without the short-term pain.
This chart is an important reminder that you don't get one without the other.

[Peter Mallouk @PeterMallouk]

Warren Buffett just turned 96 with a net worth of $144 billion.
Here’s the incredible part:
98% of his wealth was accumulated after age 65.
"My life has been a product of compound interest." - Warren Buffett

[Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi]

S&P 500 P/E ratio down to 19.4x @dualityresearch

[Justin Banks @RealJGBanks]

THE AI CYCLE THAT WILL RETIRE YOU IN THE NEXT 5-10 YEARS

Sharing this once. Do NOT lose it. Keep this.

The government and the largest companies in the world are showing you where capital is going.

Follow the BUILDOUT:

PHASE 1 2026–2027: BUILD THE AI STACK

AI Chips: $NVDA $AMD $AVGO $INTC

Memory / HBM: $MU $SNDK

Networking: $MRVL $QCOM

Photonics / Optics: $AAOI $LITE

Data Centers: $IREN $APLD

Cooling / Infrastructure: $SMCI $DELL

Storage: $HPE

GPU Cloud: $CRWV $NBIS $MSFT $AMZN

Electrical Equipment: $NVT

Cybersecurity: $CRWD

PHASE 2 2028–2030: POWER THE MACHINE

Grid Infrastructure: $PWR

Power Producers: $CEG

Natural Gas / Turbines: $VST

On-Site Power: $BE

Nuclear: $OKLO $CEG

Fusion: Emerging / mostly private

Copper: $FCX $SCCO

Critical Metals: $ALB $MP

Rare Earths: $MP $USAR

Electrification: $TE

PHASE 3 2030+: AUTOMATE THE WORLD

AI Applications: $PLTR $NOW $SNOW

Robotics: $TSLA $SERV

Autonomy: $ACHR

Drones: $AVAV $ONDS $KTOS

Defense Tech: $KTOS $AVAV

Space Economy: $RKLB $ASTS

Quantum: $IONQ $QBTS

WHAT DOES AI FORCE THE WORLD TO BUILD NEXT?

That’s what you ask yourself.

Save this.

[Richard Ina, AAMS® @RichInaNEW]

Thought of the Week: "He who has a why to live can bear almost any how.” - Friedrich Nietzsche, philosopher

[Patient Investor @patientinvestor]

Everyone says the market is expensive

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 PEG ratio is near its 30 year low:

[Volt ⚡ @VoltWeb3]

🚨 WE ARE NOW ENTERING THE HOTTEST PHASE

Every midterm election year for the last 50 years has delivered a market drawdown:

1974 Ford: -35%
1978 Carter: -15%
1982 Reagan: -17%
1986 Reagan: -9%
1990 Bush: -20%
1994 Clinton: -8%
1998 Clinton: -22%
2002 Bush: -34%
2006 Bush: -8%
2010 Obama: -17%
2014 Obama: -7%
2018 Trump: -20%
2022 Biden: -27%

2026 Trump: ???

13 midterm years. 13 drawdowns.

Average intra-year drawdown: ~17%.

But this year there’s another cycle hitting at the SAME time.

A new Fed chair.

Over the last nine decades:

12 new Fed chairs. 12 equity drawdowns within their first three months.

Average: -12%.

The last time both cycles collided was 2018.

Powell became Fed chair.

Markets broke almost immediately.

By Christmas Eve:

S&P 500: -20%

Then Powell pivoted.

2019:

S&P 500: +30%

And now the timing gets even more interesting.

Market fear historically bottoms in early summer.

Then rises into September and October.

The VIX was near the mid-teens in July.

Now it’s already above 18.

At the same time:

Retail cash allocations are near extreme lows.

Almost nobody is hedging.

Record IPO supply is draining liquidity.

And we’re entering the exact window where midterm-year corrections historically accelerate.

But here’s what most people will get wrong:

This is NOT where I become bearish long term.

Every one of those 13 midterm drawdowns became a buying opportunity.

13 out of 13.

Average rally from the midterm low:

~47%.

That’s the opportunity I’m waiting for.

First the fear. Then the bottom.

The next 60 days could create the best buying opportunity of this cycle.

Keep in mind: I publicly called Bitcoin’s $17K bottom in 2022 and the $126K top in 2025.

When I start buying again, every call will be posted here first.

Follow and turn notifications on.

[Richard Ina, AAMS® @RichInaNEW]

Thought of the Week: "The future depends on what you do today.” - Mahatma Gandhi, political leader and social reformer

[Global_Macro @Marcomadness2]

A lost decade in bonds well under way

[Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrick]

April and May gained more than 15% for the S&P 500, which suggested a very strong rest of year.

Previous times? Never lower and up another 18.8% on avg the rest of the year.

[Rick @dwerty_qq]

In 1977 a 33-year-old Fidelity analyst in Boston took over a small mutual fund with eighteen million dollars in assets.

Thirteen years later he retired at 46 with the fund holding fourteen billion dollars the best-performing mutual fund in the world by a wide margin.

His name was Peter Lynch. Between 1977 and 1990 he averaged 29.2 percent a year. The S&P did roughly twelve percent in the same period.

He had no computer on his desk. He had no team of analysts. He picked stocks by walking through shopping malls and phoning company managers directly. At his peak he owned more than 1,400 different stocks because he refused to say no to a good idea.

He bought Dunkin Donuts because he liked their coffee on the drive to work. He bought Hanes because his wife brought home a package of L'eggs pantyhose from the supermarket and told him the product was terrific. He bought Taco Bell after visiting five franchises in California and asking each manager how much lettuce cost that week.

He bought Chrysler at $2 a share when Wall Street had written the company off as bankrupt. It went to $50.

His father died of brain cancer when Peter was ten. He started caddying at Brae Burn Country Club in Newton, Massachusetts at eleven to help his mother pay rent. The wealthy golfers he served would talk about their stocks between holes. He noticed they had no more information than anyone else, and most of them were rich anyway.

His entire investment philosophy fit in six words. Invest in what you already know.

In 1994, four years after retiring, he agreed to give a full-length lecture explaining his method. He walked through the six categories he separated every stock in the market into slow growers, stalwarts, fast growers, cyclicals, turnarounds, and asset plays. He listed the questions he asked every CEO on every quarterly call. He explained why he had held Fannie Mae until it was five percent of the fund and why he had sold Chrysler on the way up.

He was fifty years old. He would never manage a public fund again.

Bookmark and watch today ↓

[Peter Mallouk @PeterMallouk]

Reminder: the stock market isn’t Red or Blue - it’s Green.
It doesn’t care about your politics.
It runs on earnings, innovation, and growth.