Richard

The Pope of Xiaolongbao👑
Trader｜ Founder
Earn quietly, live carefree.

[Richard @RichardeQuant]

Welcome to the Human Winners’ Club!

The Life Strategy: Extreme Randomness | Convexity | Asymmetry | Backpropagation.

Grok’s style looks like old money—wealth that’s been around for generations, while ChatGPT’s style looks more like newly acquired wealth.

[Richard @RichardeQuant]

A man, beyond his father, will meet three men along the way: a friend who wounds him, a man who opens the door and brings him into the world, and a master who teaches him his craft.
Meet none of them, and he may grow old, but he will remain fifteen.

[Hoody @HoodyLiu]

白宫 AI 会之后的这段，Dario 的表现特别适合演卓别林默片

动作太细腻丰富了，不愧是 Anthropic CEO

[Richard Zhang @RichardZhang_]

很久没见过这种眼前一亮的设计了
很有超市购物小票的感觉 并且还会有打印的声音 超级nice @randyloop

[Richard @RichardeQuant]

As the feudal era of the internet comes to an end, we are entering the ‘Age of Discovery’ for AI.
WeChat is becoming increasingly bloated; every time I unlock my phone, I have to switch between several instant messaging apps—Telegram, Line, WhatsApp and WeChatto reply to messages

[赵纯想 @chunxiangai]

正式宣告：如果你想在今年冬天，在 *杭州* 大展身手。把微信、telegram，重新写一次。以 AI Native 的方式，去构建一个 Agent 与人，共为一等公民的 IM 网络。请您提前与我联系。

一直以来，Cromma（可爱信）无法真正通过思想实验。所有的壁垒都有解法，可优化的点千千万万，唯独小程序生态这一块，完全难以撼动。

直到这个秋天，我们看到了很多东西真正进入了沸腾阶段（以lovable为标志的产品）。让每个用户用自然语言的方式，0代码、0部署焦虑地来创造和分发自己的“小程序”。将IM中的可流转软件生态，从少部分人编码，大部分人使用的时代，蝶变到程序的创造者、迭代者、使用者，都是用户本人的时代。

想象一下：hi，为我的这个学员群弄一个小程序。

总而言之，一切已经启动。我需要做一些 CEO 该做的事。组织人，尤其是野心勃勃的人。我们一起打造，一个唯一的 Rust IM 内核。经 UniFFI 绑定给各端原生。经 wasm 给 web，经 napi 给 Electron。

这里放不下关于Cromma的想象。让一切从一封邮件开始，只需证明你也想干，且可以胜任。

[email protected]

[Dovey "Rug The CNY" Wan🪐 @DoveyWanCN]

「绝望式繁荣」The Despair Prosperity 是我进入2025年后一直在琢磨这个社会主题, 正好最近有个很点题的观察, 一起记录下. 之前也写过美国的消费也并没有topline看上去那么美好, 疫情之后财富效应集中在拥有股票资产的富裕阶层, 但是富裕阶级的商品消费增长是边际递减的, 所以服务消费（Services）的增速与占比长期显著高于实体商品消费（Goods）

PS. 疫情期间发放的数万亿美元补贴在中低收入群体中已基本耗尽。低收���群体的信用卡违约率、还有���贷款逾期已经攀升至近年高位) 从2025年开始, 服务业和商品/专业商品制造就业(包括信息业) 就业数据也是在K形分化上越走越远最近一次的非农更可以体现服务业就业情况比其他行业突出很多(新增就业岗位高度集中在医疗保健与社会援助、休闲与酒店业etc) , 拉动了大部分就业.

这段时间在反复看不同的角度的消费和基建resonation, 发现进入2024年以来是美国战后历史上第一次capex diffusion 和consumer sentiment大背离的历史阶段 (下图) 上一次的最像的时候是1991年, 但是regime不可比, 那时候是因为刚走出萧条, 信心并无法完全恢复所以没有立刻跟上基建; 这次是刚从大的macro shock(covid)里回复常态, 但是新的天量级别专项基建开支完全无法传导到就业/工资和普通人的商品消费信心.

最近还有一个做了1500个数据中心的survey：county level 引入型数据中心后，大约增加 100–200个岗位，工资没有明显上升，但房价上升约 2%–5% ... 收益的还是资产端 😂 .. AI capex创造的劳动收入很小，却通过电力、住房和财政补贴(还是靠税收) 把成本让居民一起承担

[Matthias Schmidt @eurofounder]

???

[Jacob Coxon @hilbertspaess]

I resigned from Anthropic today. I spent the last three years doing pretraining research at both OpenAI and Anthropic. Neither company is acting responsibly. They are racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives. More thoughts below.

[Steve Burns @SJosephBurns]

@StuOnGold “There is a time to go long, a time to go short, and a time to go fishing”.

— Jesse Livermore

[Goshawk Trades @GoshawkTrades]

https://t.co/X55hKugQan

[苏里格 @szslg]

https://t.co/IXmNGO8pSz

[paulwei @coolish]

最近很多人吐槽，这一天天的行情，这么画门，
这个游戏到底谁在赢？

于是有一个想法，用ai画了一个图表，来大致表达，
能看懂有哪些含义吗？

我认为对每个交易者来说，
找到图中的⭕️平衡点在哪，
是一个很核心的课题。

[Richard @RichardeQuant]

Fight like a genuine knight!
Knight Cat!

Good luck!

[Pickle Cat @0xPickleCati]

I got liquidated 3 times until I started making money in trading.

Everyone says find a strategy, build “discipline”, then you’ll make money.

This is the most bullshit and misleading advice of retail trading.

Because discipline can NEVER be “practiced” into existence like a habit. You CAN'T train it like a sport where repetition makes you better.

That fake discipline works fine until real pressure hits, then you completely fall apart.

No strategy will ever work on you if your mind is the weakest part of your setup.

Because here’s the ugly truth👇

> If life hasn’t broken you (multiple times) before, you simply don’t have the psychological resilience to REPLICATE the discipline in traders you admire.

> Their strategy works because it’s PAIRED with a level of INNER RESILIENCE most haven’t earned yet.

> The calm you see in profitable traders wasn't “practiced.”

> It was forged from surviving enough PAIN that their old instincts had NO CHOICE but to DIE.

> Their discipline came from DESTRUCTION, not DETERMINATION.

> With luck and fake discipline you can make money, but you sure as hell can’t keep it for long.

So HOW to get "REAL" discipline?👇

> You cannot “gradually” grow discipline over time.

> It happens very suddenly and violently, usually at your lowest point when your old self finally gets ripped apart.

It’s like arguing with someone. Some people stay ice cold and say exactly what destroys the other person. Others break down crying.

The difference isn’t “self control.”

It’s that the calm one has already survived far worse, so this moment means nothing to them. Chaos doesn’t touch them because they’ve seen bigger storms, not because they “practiced patience.”

So if you're in your lowest point right now, don't waste it👇

> People don’t get many chances in life to experience metamorphosis.

> If you waste all that emotional energy attacking the world or pushing away the people who love you, you’re burning fuel that should be used on yourself.

> Put that energy into your own damn evolution.

> Put it into the quiet moments where you sit down and actually face your shame and fear.

> Start by writing down the 30 things you are most afraid of or most ashamed of.

> It sounds small, but it’s huge, because the version of you who is “doing well” would never have the guts to face that list.

A lot of people think the secret to trading is more strategies, more macro research, more knowledge.

They’re wrong.

It's stepping completely outside of trading to recognize and accept your broken parts. Your demons.

And STOP studying people's success!
Study how they survived their lowest point instead👇

> People love calling someone smart or disciplined, then they copy their routines like it'll magically work.

> It won't. You can't copy success because half of it is luck, timing, and advantages you don't have.

But you can learn from how they fell apart and got back up:

> How they handled losing everything

> How they kept going when most would quit

> How they turned pain into power instead of self-hatred

Those parts are real. Those parts can be copied.

Those parts are earned through fire, not gifted by genetics or privilege.

Success is personal. But the path of dying, rebuilding and coming back stronger is universal.

And it’s the only damn part worth copying.

[Richard @RichardeQuant]

He asked me if I needed help. He probably thought I had no money and not many X account followers.
I replied that trading is a journey destined to be lonely and that only I can redeem myself.

Good luck!

[Richard @RichardeQuant]

I recently spoke with James Wayne, a prominent trader in the cryptocurrency space, and we had a great chat.
I said I hoped he would control his risk and not lose tens of millions of dollars again, and I wished him tens of millions of dollars in profit in the new year.

[Pickle Cat @0xPickleCati]

If you wanna stop losing money in crypto, the first thing you should do is STOP day trading.

Because RETAIL day trading is structurally a SCAM.

This is a long post but if you just give me 120 seconds of your time, I swear you'll thank me in a few years.

I’ve been trading since I was a teenager.

I’ve had wins that made me feel I’m Batman and losses that genuinely broke pieces of me I’m still putting back together.

I tried EVERY STRATEGY myself as retail could ever find.

I even day traded for a year thinking it would finally save me, and I failed so painfully it still stings every time I remember it.

> My PNL was so shit to the point that my grandma, who I HELPED set up an AUTO BUY on BTC for, made more money than me.

> Then I became a low-frequency swing trader who barely touches positions, who GETS THE F OUT and STOPS TRADING for a while after a winning move.

> ONLY THEN did my life get better and everything finally start to click.

I’m not a saint. I’m writing this to save the younger, dumb, naive, and painfully impulsive version of me.

First, as a RETAIL DAY TRADER, you’re trading high-frequency with zero real information advantage (no real order flow, no true liquidity map, no market maker positioning, no execution advantage, nothing).

> Do it a few times each quarter, you survive.
> Do it 10+ times a week?
> Even if you have the strongest “discipline” and “risk management” skills in the world, the math will still burry you alive.

Retails don’t fail because they (we) never win.
We fail because we NEVER STOP, and high frequency only has one final outcome.

RUIN.

> This is literally why I built a punishment system for myself if I exceed my quarterly trade limit.

> Every major loss I’ve ever taken happened after a big win where I kept going instead of stopping.

> And every major win I’ve ever taken (and actually kept the money for a long time) was because I caught a big move and then CHILLED.

> Pattern is so obvious it hurts.

Winning is NOT you suddenly made big money.
Winning is keeping that money and not fking losing it next year.

> I’m seeing 14 year olds on TikTok calling themselves day traders, drawing lines on TradingView, thinking they unlocked some daily executable system after buying a guru’s course or Discord.

> It sickens me because if they knew it was gambling I wouldn’t care. At least they’re aware of the game.

> But this day trading meta is bigger than the dropshipping wave in 2016 and 2017. And we all know how that ended.

> People underestimate the difficulty of trading and massively overestimate their ability.

> The issue isn’t just the math. Yes the more you trade and the less you stop the harder consistent profitability becomes.

> But the real problem is younger retail traders GENUINELY believe that with “discipline” and “risk management” they are not gambling at all. They think day trading is a "skill" you can execute like a daily routine.

This isn’t just crypto day trading. The same logic applies to US equities and basically every market.

High frequency only works inside institutions.

> Take US equities for example.
> Do you know what institution traders don’t even look at? Candlestick charts and TradingView.
> They’re on Bloomberg terminals with data retail will never see.

Well, you of course knows this. BUT the 14 to 18 year olds don’t know that. They think their indicators are what all traders use.

And that’s the real danger.
> If you know you’re gambling, at least a part of you knows when to walk away.
> But once you believe it’s a “system”, you never stop.
> You keep clicking until the market empties you completely.

It really is just like a casino in disguise.

> When you walk into Vegas or Macau, you know EXACTLY what you’re stepping into.

> You see the lights, the tables, the dealers, the noise. Your brain knows this is gambling.

> But day trading today is a casino disguised as a COFFEE SHOP.

> New traders walk in thinking they’re here to “learn a skill”, not realizing they just sat down at a table designed to drain them slowly.

So they don’t stop.
That’s the whole tragedy.
Not the losing.

The fact that they genuinely believe they’re not gambling, which makes them keep going until there’s nothing left to lose.

> And those retail traders (like me) you see who look like they’re “winning”… honestly most of them just caught a big move.

> They had luck at the right moment, plus enough discipline beaten into them by previous losses that they finally learned how to stop after a win.

And even then, this tiny group is less than one percent of all retail.

It’s not hard to make money in trading.
It’s just unbelievably hard to keep it.

[iPaul @iPaulCanada]

香港地铁 大埔墟站 写着免费自取，但还是有很多人放下了钱，甚至没花了还有人放钱，箱子空了很快有人补货，补货的人还不是同一个人，让人感动，香港加油！

[Morris @Morris_LT]

父亲永远要输给孩子，尤其是输给儿子。如果家庭里的父子吵架了，当爹的一定要输，因为只有儿子赢了，这个家才能走下去，要是父亲非要跟儿子争论一个对错，看似是赢了，其实父亲输的最惨，因为如果父亲非要压儿子一头，把儿子的想法，闯劲都堵回去，表面上看上去是父亲占了理，其实是在亲手折断自己孩子的翅膀。一个强势的父亲，会把自己孩子敢想敢做的底气，和家里的朝气都掐断了，可能会连带着子孙后代都受影响。父亲要明白，让孩子赢，不是惯着他，而是对他在人生道路上敢往前闯的底气。一个家庭里只有孩子都敢闯敢试了，这个家庭的日子才能越走越旺。

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Yeah

[Andy Stewart @manateelazycat]

今年7月份，从吐鲁番赶向乌鲁木齐

快到乌鲁木齐的时候，就是这种壮观的景象

因为新疆非常靠西边，本来就要晚上9点多才开始落日，然后又是一路向西，越往前开，落日越晚，最后就会发现，太阳的折射把整片天空都染上了颜色

太壮观了，强烈建议大家体验一次