Rishit

Finance & Trading 📊| Market insights 📈

[Rishit @Rishit46]

@DrBrat_Rajput30 Indian equities weight reduced in MSCI index. Today is the last day of the month so rebalancing might have caused this.

[Kirttan Shah @KirtanShahCFP]

If there is one indicator you want to currently watch to know where will the markets move it is the US Yields! Let me explain in this quick 🧵 (1/5)

[Rishit @Rishit46]

Looks like Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 are all set for the next rally after 20 months of consolidation.📈🚀
What say? #SMIDCap #IndianMarkets

[Brian Halligan @bhalligan]

I don't remember where I found this, but its spot on.

[SwanDesk @SwanDesk]

JUST IN: BlackRock’s $26B private credit fund is limiting how much investors can pull out, capping withdrawals at 5% even though investors asked for 9.3%

Blackstone’s similar fund processed a record “7.9% OF SHARES” of withdrawal requests this week, with the firm and employees covering the rest.

[Rishit @Rishit46]

Bonkers🤯

[World of Engineering @engineers_feed]

The world's longest-range EV launched: BYD Denza Z9 GT offers 1,036km and 9-minute full charge, from 39,100 USD

[Rishit @Rishit46]

Finally, #SPX closed below 6,800 and also slipped outside its 2σ daily range. That’s a meaningful expansion in volatility.

Doors open for 6,500–6,550.
But as we closed outside 2σ range, a bounce toward 6,800–6,850 early next week wouldn’t be surprising either.

It’s all Iran headlines that drove markets this week.

• #Oil ripped above $90 (YTD +58.5%)
• #USVIX closed at 29.85% - that’s HUGE

Weekend headlines will likely dictate Monday’s open.
Personally staying away from one sided bets until volatility cools off.

[Rishit @Rishit46]

#USOIL marked high of $75 intraday in the initial hours.

[Rishit @Rishit46]

#Oil has quietly become the hottest commodity YTD.

Is this money rotating out of #Gold / #Silver after their monster runs?
Or is the market pricing geopolitical risk with the Iran situation resulting in the spike?
Or both?

Technically (daily candlestick):

It is holding above $65 (key pivot) and if it gives a sustained break above $67 then that would open room toward $70 and more.

[The Wolf Of All Streets @scottmelker]

The ability to maximize the usage of AI is a temporary advantage.

Soon, it will be so powerful that everyone can use it easily.

And then your edge or alpha will once again come back to your creativity and good taste.

The human element will be more important than ever.

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

BREAKING: It started.

Three explosions in central Tehran. Thick smoke rising over downtown. Defense Minister Katz confirmed Israel launched a preemptive strike to “remove threats to the State of Israel.” Sirens sounding across every city in the country. State of emergency declared. Schools closed. Airspace shut. The IDF told every citizen to stay near protected spaces.

This is not a drill. This is the second Israeli air campaign against Iran in eight months.

And every single signal was visible in advance.

The eighteen tankers at Al Udeid that dropped to zero over 26 days. The eleven F-22 Raptors deployed to Israeli soil for the first time in history. The 270 transport flights building the logistics tail. The fourteen refueling tankers at Ben Gurion. The embassy staff told to leave Israel yesterday.

The fifteen countries that told their citizens to evacuate Iran on the same day. Beijing ordering its nationals out. The Omani mediator claiming a deal was “within reach” hours before missiles hit Tehran.

And yesterday, the President of the United States said seven words that told you everything: “I’d love not to, but sometimes you have to.”

Sometimes arrived this morning.

Rubio designated Iran a State Sponsor of Wrongful Detention yesterday. Not to negotiate. To foreclose negotiation. You do not classify a government as criminal hostage-takers and then sign agreements with them. That designation was the legal architecture for what just happened. The political predicate built in a single Thursday so the military predicate could execute on Saturday.

The Omani channel said Iran agreed to dilute its uranium. The mediator said peace was within reach. And Israel struck anyway. Because this was never about whether Iran would make concessions at the table. This was about what 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent represents when the IAEA cannot verify where it is stored and cannot confirm enrichment has stopped.

Concessions that cannot be verified are not concessions. They are delay.

Iran’s economy is at 39 percent capacity. Its stock exchange is down 40 percent. Its water system is failing. Its electricity grid collapses weekly. It has killed thousands of its own citizens since December. Its most powerful proxy lost 80 percent of its arsenal. And its most powerful ally, China, told its own people to leave the country 24 hours before the first explosion.

The regime is now absorbing precision strikes while governing a country that was already in systemic failure.

The question is no longer whether strikes would happen. That question was answered by the empty ramp at Al Udeid, by the F-22s in the Negev, by the fifteen evacuation orders, by seven words from a president who had already decided.

The question now is what Iran does next with degraded missiles, shattered proxies, a collapsing economy, and a population that was already in the streets before the first bomb fell.

Watch the Strait of Hormuz. Watch the price of oil. Watch whether the sirens in Israel are followed by Iranian ballistic missiles or by silence.

June taught us what Israel can do. February will teach us what Iran has left.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

https://t.co/BrzGRrU3VW

[Rishit @Rishit46]

Let’s study S&P500 and Mag 7.

#MAGS: -5.74% YTD
Lower highs on the daily since the Oct 29 ATH.
Broke a key demand zone, retested it Friday last week, and now printing an inside candle.
Structure clearly tilting bearish.

#SPX: -0.30% YTD
Despite Mag 7 weakness, the index is still flat.
But it lost the rising trendline from the April ’25 tariff low and is now compressing in a range.

A decisive close below 6,800 opens 6,500–6,550 in the short term.

It’s interesting — Mag 7 makes up roughly 1/3 of the index, is already down ~6% YTD and SPY is still flat.

That kind of divergence doesn’t usually last long.

Will the broader market keep absorbing the weakness or Mag 7 eventually drag the index lower?

Right now, probabilities lean slightly in favor of the bears.

[Rishit @Rishit46]

President Trump: "Effective immediately, all national security tariffs under Section 232 and existing Section 301 tariffs remain in place.

Today, I will sign an order to impose a 10% global tariff under Section 122 over and above our normal tariffs already being charged."

#trump

[Rishit @Rishit46]

🚨BREAKING: “IEEPA does not authorize the President to impose tariffs,” read the decision, written by Chief Justice John Roberts.

The ruling also raised the question of refunds, which could return an estimated $129 billion to importers in the months ahead.

The ruling upholds two lower courts — including the US Court of International Trade — that previously found Trump did not have the authority to impose global tariffs using the 1977 law.

Source: @YahooFinance

[Rishit @Rishit46]

#Oil back to $65+ amidst U.S.–Iran war tensions

[Rishit @Rishit46]

#SPX $6,800 would be the make or break level in the short term.

Daily close below that will open door to $6,550.

#VIX above 20 for three consecutive sessions now. Surely, not a great sign of market recovering any time soon.

[Rishit @Rishit46]

#SPX has broken the multi month trendline on the daily timeframe starting from the lows of the tariff sell-off. It looks like this.

[Rishit @Rishit46]

Talking about #SPY – Daily (line on lows)

Keeps getting rejected from the $690–$693 zone. Lows getting slightly lower each time.

From a naked eye it looks like a mini H&S forming.

Not bullish here unless we close strong above that zone.
Until then, I’m cautious.

[Rishit @Rishit46]

#QQQ – Daily Time Frame (Line & Candlestick)

Still unable to take out the late Oct 2025 all time high.
Since the start of 2026, its marking slightly lower lows.

On the candlestick chart, a short-term trendline broke, got retested, and now following through on the downside.

For the first time today since the May 2025 tariff sell-off, we also have a marginal 20/50 EMA bearish crossover.

Definitely a shift in short-term structure.
Neutral to slightly bearish from here.

[Rishit @Rishit46]

Let’s take a quick look at #SMH (weekly)

Still sitting at the same make or break level as 3 weeks ago.
No real progress. Just hanging there.
Not looking for fresh buys in the broader semi space at this level. Let price prove itself first. #Semiconductors