Michael Roat

Independent Equity/ETF options trader. Realist. Macro perspective. Founder Tri-Macro Research. not investment advice.

[Michael Roat @RoatMichael]

https://t.co/OXtqxeHN5a

The gravity of global US dollar financial conditions and liquidity are pulling the safety of the investment "tide" as Buffet would say further and further out. Traditional Safe havens such USTs and gold may not work pending the Fed's reaction function to

[Lars H. Barstad @lh_barstad]

Shape of the #oil curve is flirting with 'contango', meaning future oil prices is above near-term contracts > incentivising #storage/#inventory builds. Historically very good news for #tankers $FRO #OOTT

[Joakim Hannisdahl @JHannisdahl]

VLCCs returned in spectacular fashion yday, supported by a strong Atlantic market and as people are returning from Golden Week

Today: TD2 rose 34%. TD3C WS85 (scrubber) and balmo 94 (vs yday spot 72)

News of Chinese port fees on US-linked vessels could also be having an impact

[Michael Roat @RoatMichael]

mechanism occurring. In fact the opposite. Stock prices are disengaging from any rational internals or fundamentals and it is pure momentum.

[Michael Roat @RoatMichael]

When valuations no longer matter you can't point to high valuations as a limiting factor for how high the equity markets can run. Just know the game you're playing. Markets are runaway and broken. There is no price discovery...

[Joakim Hannisdahl @JHannisdahl]

Will be interesting to see if we get #contango in the coming months amidst the #oil overproduction

On our calculations we would need 3-month forward prices $2.9/bbl above 1-month (now -$0.8) for floating storage profitability, w similar numbers for 7m & 1y $5.0/bbl & $7.8/bbl

[Michael Roat @RoatMichael]

We're one good jobs report or high CPI reading away from a major sell off. Oh wait. Shut the economic data down.

[Marko Kolanovic @markoinny]

Trade war raging (chips, soy...), president wants to fire Fed chair, Government is shut down, investors maxed out, signs of slowdown everywhere (trucking, jobs,
...), cracks in credit, political violence, deportations ... I really can't figure out why is everyone bullish stocks

[Michael Roat @RoatMichael]

It's go time. Long FRONTLINE DHT Jan. Calls.

[Marhelm @MarhelmData]

VLCC rally cooling?

Softening FFAs hint at a weaker Q4. Middle East–China route peaked at WS105.6 on Sept 17, but bullish supercycle chatter now meets growing doubts.

$FRO $DHT $OET

[Michael Roat @RoatMichael]

Rumors of crude futures curve flipping into contango #tankers

[Matt Smith @mattvsmith01]

Back to this oil-on-water thing - our S&D model shows a modest surplus for September, oil-on-water indicates a glut - a surplus of >3 Mbd. This glut is on the water, heading to onshore inventories.

[Michael Roat @RoatMichael]

https://t.co/xKYukeJBW1

[Matt Smith @mattvsmith01]

Global crude exports hit a 5-year high in September. 2nd highest month on our records - only surpassed by April 2020 (Saudi-Russia price war). A big rise in exports from Saudi, Iran, US, Russia and others.

[Value Investor's Edge @Shipping_VIE]

More OPEC+ rumors this morning with potentially three monthly installments of 500K bpd supply hikes.

#TANKERS

[BreakWave @DryBulkETF]

More and more analysts expect the #oil #market to move into significant surplus next year. The IEA sees oversupply of 3.3 mbd in 2026, while the EIA forecasts 1.7 mbd.
#tankers
https://t.co/R54mPm8P03

[BreakWave @DryBulkETF]

Reuters: The European Union confirmed that it had reinstated #sanctions against Iran, following a similar move against Iran by the United Nations.
#crudeoil
https://t.co/wyj1OuD0LF

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

Resumption of Kurdistan oil exports will add supply to a global market expected to be heading for a glut

[Giovanni Staunovo🛢 @staunovo]

#Iran Rejects Exiting Nuclear Pact Despite Sanctions Snapback https://t.co/1h25yrFGc7

[BreakWave @DryBulkETF]

The illicit trading debate in #shipping sharpened this month, with the U.S. Senate introducing the SHADOW Fleets Act to impose new sanctions on Russia’s “shadow fleet.”
#tankers #markets
https://t.co/QFmC3c0QuR

[Giovanni Staunovo🛢 @staunovo]

EU-#Iran sanctions talks fail to yield breakthrough with deadline looming
Europe wants to avert sanctions against Iran but its diplomats admit Tehran isn’t budging on its nuclear program.
https://t.co/0YdGEsku9m

[Ed Finley–Richardson @ed_fin]

VLCC September futures up to w102 today. (Sparta)

[Tankers International @TankersInt]

Hercules I (2017 - Modern VLSFO) On Subs (Estimated Voyage CII: B 🟢) FPCC Mercuria (TCE: RV USD 94K @ 44 days / Actual USD 108K @ 39 days)
https://t.co/zNtrFUDqsB