🚨 Tesla Robotaxi launch gets mixed reactions?
@thejefflutz says Morgan Stanley sees the Houston unsupervised rollout as real progress, with more miles helping improve FSD, boost demand, and grow cash flow.
Jefferies raised its $TSLA price target to $350, saying expectations are now more realistic.
Big shift: from selling cars once to earning ongoing Robotaxi revenue, but short-term guidance is still an issue.
Many believe Tesla’s Q1 2026 earnings were “bad” or a disappointment, but if you actually dig deeper into the shareholder deck + earnings call, I believe it was a really strong quarter.
1/ Total revenue hit $22.387B (+16% YoY). Solid top-line growth even with energy storage timing dip, so auto + services more than carried the load and showing Tesla’s business is diversifying fast.
2/ Gross profit grew +50% YoY to $4.72B. This is operating leverage happening in real time bc costs were controlled while volume and mix improved. This is NOT the sign of a weak company.
3/ GAAP gross margin reached a fresh high of 21.1% (+478 bp YoY). Best in recent history. Auto gross margin ex-credits jumped to 19.2% as well.
4/ Non-GAAP net income jumped +56% to $1.453B with EPS of $0.41 (+52%). Profitability is showing strength even while big bets are still being made.
5/ Free cash flow remains very strong at $1.444B (+117% YoY). Real cash is being generated even with heavy CapEx. Balance sheet now sits at $44.743B in cash & investments (+21% YoY).
6/ Services & other revenue rocketed to $3.745B (+42% YoY). High-margin, recurring revenue stream (FSD, Supercharging, etc.) is becoming a major growth engine.
7/ FSD paid subscriptions is now at ~1.3M and growing fast (especially monthly subs, +51% active base YoY). This is pure software margins and it’s going to grow as FSD continues to get better.
8/ Vehicle deliveries +6% YoY to 358k with production at 408k. First time in >2 years Tesla had a record Q1 order backlog. These are not just cars being sold, remember they are AI robots on wheels to solve autonomy. Demand is growing.
9/ Giga Berlin set an all-time record (>61k units). Europe’s demand for Teslas are growing in key markets like France/Germany +150% QoQ.
10/ Energy storage margins hit record highs (~39.5%+) even though revenue dipped on timing. Backlog remains massive and this business is scaling profitably. Energy revenue dip was purely timing/backlog-related.
11/ Unsupervised Robotaxi is already live in Dallas & Houston (launched right after quarter close) with ZERO incidents so far. Tesla Robotaxis are now in Bay Area, Austin, Dallas, Houston, and expanding.
12/ FSD Supervised just got approved in the Netherlands, showing international regulatory momentum for FSD is building.
13/ Tesla made a $2B equity investment in SpaceX this quarter (converted from prior xAI stake). Now owns a direct (small <1%) stake in SpaceX, unlocking even deeper strategic ties across the Muskonomy.
14/ Historic Tesla-SpaceX partnership on Terafab to build the largest chip fab ever for AI compute. Tesla handles the research fab while SpaceX does initial high-volume scaling phase. This is going to be important to secure the supply for Robotaxi, Optimus & more.
15/ Massive CapEx ramp (> $25B expected for 2026) but investors are going to see high-ROI in the future for AI compute, new chip fab, Optimus factories, Robotaxi, battery vertical integration. I believe it’s going to payoff big time. Elon stressed the big CapEx increase is “well justified for a substantially increased future revenue stream.”
16/ Optimus production ramp prepped for Fremont & Giga Texas late 2026. Elon on the call told us: “I think Optimus will be our biggest product - not just Tesla’s biggest product ever, but probably the biggest product ever.”
17/ Cybercab, Semi, and Megapack 3 all are on track for volume production in 2026.
18/ Operating cash flow grew to $3.937B (+83% YoY), which shows Tesla is can fund its own massive AI/robotics bets all with internal $.
Let me make it clear… this was NOT a “bad” quarter. Tesla is NOT slowing down and it’s clear to me that they are positioning for the next decade. If the stock reacts weak on any short-term noise, this is a textbook buying opportunity for long-term investors IMO.
@AStramezzi E non solo... Quando avrà una capitalizzazione di 3-4 trilioni, sono convinto che cominceranno a dare i dividendi. Provate ad immaginare il business solo con con robotaxi e Optimus Inimmaginabile
🇬🇧|Brussels turns itself into a self-service shop: 66,000 employees of #EU institutions, including the @EU_Commission, will receive another pay raise starting in April – the 7th (!) since early 2022. @vonderleyen, entangled in numerous scandals, will then enjoy €34,800 per month, while citizens across #Europe struggle with an unaffordable daily life made worse by ivory tower green policies – see the #CO2 madness. https://t.co/qU3m8RIJOx