Roger Lay

“The capacity of the human being to adjust his beliefs to his interests cannot be underestimated.”

[Arun S. Chopra CFA CMT🧐 @FusionptCapital]

Fed under Powell:

1-Largest asset bubble in 25 yrs

2-Insider trading across entire institution

3-Fastest rise in front end ever

4-Blocking reports highlighting regulatory failures

[Roger Lay @RogerLay_]

@Mr_Derivatives 2018- Midterm pattern?

[James Chanos @RealJimChanos]

A classic from Hank Blaustein, circa GFC…

[Roger Lay @RogerLay_]

@kakashiii111 Notice how your current phone is overheating and running slower? It’s soon to be obsolete, and not by accident. Thanks Apple. So it’s not a choice of a $1400 upgrade, it’s a $1400 purchase or no phone. Who can choose no phone?

[Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth]

Trump says new Fed chair Kevin Warsh wants LOWER rates, but is hamstrung by a "political board."

Meanwhile, we could have the rate cuts and lower mortgage rates he campaigned on if we simply avoided things like global conflicts.

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

NEW: At dinner after day one of his first meeting as Fed chair, Kevin Warsh told his 18 colleagues he was launching five task forces to rethink how the Fed reads the economy.

Chris Waller asked what the point was. Name who's on them, he said, and I'll tell you what they'll say.

[Kevin Gordon @KevRGordon]

Quarterly share buybacks for the hyperscalers are continuing to plunge

[Roger Lay @RogerLay_]

@engineers_feed Fused magnesium.

[Roger Lay @RogerLay_]

@Londonbaby786 @Barchart October.

[Roger Lay @RogerLay_]

@Barchart New trend.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Money supply is significantly outpacing economic growth across major economies:

Canada's M2 money supply has grown +368% since January 2004, the largest increase among G7 economies.

By comparison, the Canadian economy has expanded +159% over the same period.

The US follows, with M2 growth of +279% versus a +171% increase in nominal GDP.

Meanwhile, M2 in France has surged +258% and +211% in the Euro Area, both outpacing nominal GDP growth of +84% and +102%, respectively.

In Japan, M2 has grown +90% since 2004, while its economy expanded just +25%, the slowest pace among G7 economies.

The gap between money creation and economic growth is widening.

[Roger Lay @RogerLay_]

@Fullcarry Markets are pricing in low reported inflation risk. At same time they are pricing in high actual inflation. Much delta between reported and actual.

[Peter Mallouk @PeterMallouk]

2% inflation is not what is really happening...

[Derrick Evans @DerrickEvans4WV]

Only 7 Republicans voted against the NDAA to merge our military with Israel.

Josh Brecheen
Tim Burchett
Eli Crane
Harriet Hageman
Anna Paulina Luna
Thomas Massie
Chip Roy

All the others need removed from office.

[Roger Lay @RogerLay_]

@peruvian_bull yes

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The richest Americans have never controlled this much wealth:

The wealth of the top 0.00001% of Americans is up to a record ~12% of US national income.

National income measures the total income earned across the economy, including wages, business profits, and investment income.

This percentage has more than quadrupled since the 2008 Financial Crisis.

By comparison, this metric never exceeded 1% between the 1950s and the 1990s.

The surge has been fueled by record gains in the equity market and rising real estate prices.

Asset owners are the only winners.

[Sid Prabhu @sidprabhu]

@colbyLsmith @NewYorkFed https://t.co/NuAZTcWjab

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

64.

As in 64 consecutive months with US inflation above the Fed's 2% target.

The Fed has lost all credibility when it comes to fighting inflation.

[Barchart @Barchart]

The Top 1% of U.S. earners now have more wealth than the entire middle class

[Heisenberg @Mr_Derivatives]

Random stats:

The $SPX has not had consecutive losing years since 2000-2002.

The last time the $SPX closed the calendar year at a -20% or greater decline was 2008.

Assuming we close green this year, which we likely will, the $SPX will have the longest annual winning streak since 2003-2007.

Assuming we close up double digit % this year, the $SPX will have the longest 4 or more consecutive years of dbl digit % gains since 1995-1999.

Tough to be a bear innit!?