Quantitative Greasing

; Be kind. Be silly.

[Quantitative Greasing @RuleByPowerLaw]

Oscillating between fear and confidence is a tough way to exist. Important to carry them both.

[Jerry Parker @rjpjr12]

Investors consistently sell their diversifiers at exactly the wrong moment. It’s not because they’re dumb. It’s because they’re human. You can’t out-spreadsheet a few million years of evolutionary wiring that says “do more of the thing that gives you the pellet, less of the thing that doesn’t.”

[Richard Brennan @RichB118]

Remove 32 months. Lose 91% of your wealth.

Start with $100,000 in the S&P 500. After 26 years, it becomes $747,697.

Now strip out the best 32 months. That same $100,000 becomes $66,939.

Ten percent of months created ninety-one percent of the wealth. The rest was noise.

This isn't a quirk of equities. It's the geometry of compounding in a fat-tailed world. Returns don't accumulate gradually. They arrive in bursts. And the entire question for any investor is whether your process is designed to be present when they hit.

Here's where it gets interesting. The S&P 500's best month was +12.82%. Its worst was -16.79%. The right tail is shorter than the left. Your outliers work against you.

The TF Index? Best month +11.95%. Worst month -8.55%. The right tail extends 40% further than the left. Your outliers work for you.

Seven of the TF Index's ten best months occurred when the S&P 500 was negative. The process doesn't just survive crises. It harvests them.

Across 41 trend following managers with 20+ year track records, 37 show positive skew. This isn't manager brilliance. It's structural. The cut bounds the left tail. The trend ride unbounds the right. Together they produce the only distribution shape that geometric compounding actually rewards.

Episode 7 of The Geometry of Wealth examines why letting winners run isn't a slogan. It's the mathematical engine of long-term wealth.

Read the full article: https://t.co/DmmlRphNme

#TrendFollowing #SystematicInvesting #RiskManagement #PortfolioConstruction

[Quantitative Greasing @RuleByPowerLaw]

A defining characteristic of complex systems (like markets) are outlier events.

$TFPN

[Quantitative Greasing @RuleByPowerLaw]

Of all the incredible quotes @jposhaughnessy has shared, the stickiest one for me:

“Each of us can manifest the properties of a field of consciousness that transcends space, time, and linear causality.”

I jot it down on occasion as a reminder. Grof kinda nailed it.

[Quantitative Greasing @RuleByPowerLaw]

@HML_Compounder @Tanner_HL @DadInvest Cmon brother. It’s B by a mile even assuming taxes. QMNIX + any beta is just…

[Quantitative Greasing @RuleByPowerLaw]

QLEIX having a negative YTD return makes me love the fund even more.

[Quantitative Greasing @RuleByPowerLaw]

@Tanner_HL @HML_Compounder @DadInvest Choose B bruh

[Quantitative Greasing @RuleByPowerLaw]

@choffstein Dude is a quant investing legend who also runs 62 miles every morning. Now I’m retweeting his psych/sociology takes? Christ.

Well said tho, Corey. Same goes for a clean sample of ppl speaking well of an individual.

[Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️ @choffstein]

There are interesting tells in non-linear human behavior.

For example, people dislike conflict and so will avoid even speaking ill of peers, especially at an industry event.

So, when multiple different people speak ill about someone, unprompted, it's a very meaningful signal.

[Ethan Mollick @emollick]

We are quite short of compute, and that is going to result in compute becoming very expensive for complex agentic workflows even as single-turn chatbots get cheaper. So the richest companies & most pressing use cases will use AI agents & everyone else will be stuck with chatbots?

[ヾ⁠(⁠˙⁠❥⁠˙⁠)⁠ﾉ @JaneMcApine]

Who invented these earrings??

[Quantitative Greasing @RuleByPowerLaw]

@HML_Compounder @Tanner_HL @DadInvest It hasn’t been this way for long tho. Inception dates are like 10 yrs back? Which is why the backtest is best used as a counter indicator.

[Quantitative Greasing @RuleByPowerLaw]

@HML_Compounder @Tanner_HL @DadInvest Objectively very very true

[Quantitative Greasing @RuleByPowerLaw]

@HML_Compounder @Tanner_HL @DadInvest Repeatability perspective*

[Quantitative Greasing @RuleByPowerLaw]

@HML_Compounder @Tanner_HL @DadInvest I’m not a fan of BDMIX (not truly systematic from a relatability perspective) - same w IALT (which is a better expression of that bet)

I like b - don’t care about sharpe - just want outlier gains. My perspective:)

[Blueprint Investment Partners @Blueprint_IP]

Legendary Turtle Trader & Portfolio Manager of the Blueprint Chesapeake Multi-Asset Trend ETF @rjpjr12 guest authored @hedgenordic primer on CTA & #trendfollowing ETFs.

https://t.co/baGlHZ2Pfq

[Jerry Parker @rjpjr12]

Thanks for inviting me to guest-author this piece, @hedgenordic. The ability to package CTA and #trendfollowing strategies as ETFs has broadened access, but I’m seeing significant variation across market breadth, system design, and portfolio construction.
https://t.co/0eYogk8nyc

[Quantitative Greasing @RuleByPowerLaw]

@HML_Compounder @Tanner_HL @DadInvest Those were my three picks - I wanted yours haha. Cant say AQR...etfs only.

[Quantitative Greasing @RuleByPowerLaw]

Related to the topic of @HML_Compounder being a free asset to other product nerds/practitioners - a thought experiment for ya (@DadInvest I'd love yours as well)...

You're forced to liquidate every position you own + you are handed $5M cash. No future earnings. You must put all your $$ in one ETF (taxable acct). Where's it going?
My top 3:
1) $TFPN
2) $RSIT
3) $TRTY

[Quantitative Greasing @RuleByPowerLaw]

@Tanner_HL @HML_Compounder Agree