The Rusting Trader

Rust never sleeps
Float like a Butterfly, sting like a Bee
Live dangerously, carefully
NFA

[The Rusting Trader @RustingTrader]

#Trading: The Evolution of a Trader

Most traders never make it past Stage 1.
Here’s the full progression — and the trap that quietly destroys even the best

Stage 1: The Retail Novice learns one strategy and treats it as gospel

Believes “one punch practised a thousand times” beats learning a thousand punches. The fatal flaw? When all you have is a hammer, every problem starts looking like a nail

They hunt for confirming examples (curve-fitting), ignore contradictory evidence, and develop severe tunnel vision

The broader market is only noticed when a trade goes wrong — and even then, they search for reasons that protect their existing beliefs and subjective narratives rather than update them

Trade on emotions and treat rules as flexible

[The Rusting Trader @RustingTrader]

The uncomfortable truth:

Reaching Stage 3 is rare. Staying there is rarer still.

The traders who last the longest are the ones who deliberately protect their process even after competence feels automatic — and who keep finding ways to stay challenged long after the market has stopped feeling hard.

Where are you in this evolution right now?

#TradingPsychology #TraderMindset #ProcessOverOutcome

[The Rusting Trader @RustingTrader]

Stage 2: The Institutional Approach

The complete inversion of Stage 1.
The market is no longer something to bend to the subjective will. It becomes the teacher.

Start with pure observation — no narrative, no opinion, no desire to be right, no emotional triggers

Let the market reveal its objective, repeatable patterns.

Only then select the appropriate strategy or tools for the current environment.

[The Rusting Trader @RustingTrader]

Stage 4: The Complacency of Competence (The Silent Killer)

Mastery has been achieved. The challenge has been conquered. This is where many traders quietly begin to die: Unforced errors creep in through boredom and carelessness.

Motivation fades because the game no longer feels difficult. Detachment and ego death comes with its own set of unique problems

The paradox of expertise: the better you become, the less interested you are in doing it. Been there, done that. No hunger left

This is why many market legends suffer their worst drawdowns after they’ve made their fortune — not before.

It’s also why champions often don’t bother defending their titles. Once the struggle disappears, so does the edge. Personal life goals change and adapt

[The Rusting Trader @RustingTrader]

#Trading: The Evolution of a Trader

Most traders never make it past Stage 1.
Here’s the full progression — and the trap that quietly destroys even the best

Stage 1: The Retail Novice learns one strategy and treats it as gospel

Believes “one punch practised a thousand times” beats learning a thousand punches. The fatal flaw? When all you have is a hammer, every problem starts looking like a nail

They hunt for confirming examples (curve-fitting), ignore contradictory evidence, and develop severe tunnel vision

The broader market is only noticed when a trade goes wrong — and even then, they search for reasons that protect their existing beliefs and subjective narratives rather than update them

Trade on emotions and treat rules as flexible

[The Rusting Trader @RustingTrader]

Bonus Wisdom: Back-testing is curve fitting. The past is the past. Leave it there. Only look forwards

[The Rusting Trader @RustingTrader]

#Trading: Recent insights

Trading wisdom from social media that will definitely make you rich:

1. "Trust me bro" should always be a firm entry signal, to be followed without question

2. If the ticker has nearly the same letters as the one you wish to trade, (SPCE anyone?) it's basically the same stock, but cheaper. No need to double-check, just buy it

3. Influencers always have your best interests at heart. They are selfless individuals with no personal motivation other than to pay it forward

4. Stop losses are for people who lack conviction. Always double down. Consistency means sticking to the original plan and never changing your mind

5. Unrealised profits and losses are the best kind

6. This time actually will be different. For real

7. Sharing one's thesis repeatedly with as many other traders as possible validates it and makes it bulletproof

8. Emotions are the best trading signal to act upon

9. Never invest in education. It's all BS that eats into capital and live trading time. Believe you are naturally gifted and special

10. A stock down 70%+ is obviously undervalued and due a massive rebound. Grab the bargain while you can!

11. The best time to check your portfolio is constantly. Especially at 3am. Price action at night is very important

12. All-in is the correct position size. Leverage exists to multiply your wins

13. "Diamond hands" is the highest form of trading skill

14. If a Furu with a blue checkmark says it, its true. They have already done all the DD on your behalf and you don't need to verify anything. Their word is gospel

15. Always revenge trade after a loss. The market owes you. Big time

For entertainment purposes only. Definitely NFA.

[The Rusting Trader @RustingTrader]

Possibly the best interview I've ever watched. It just occurred to me that as a pro drummer you were/are uniquely positioned to be disciplined in terms of rhythm, and are essentially the "stop loss" of a band. Without the beat, there is no stabilising factor or foundation to the music. Result: chaos. Do you think on a conscious or subconscious level, this possibly informed your ability to, imo, be the most consistent "in time" market wizard (to my knowledge) to consistently and unwaveringly observe their own rules, without deviation, in particular, stops? Thanks!

[The Rusting Trader @RustingTrader]

@MrNotAdvice Brilliant! 😂😂😂 Especially with the added paradox that the background soundtrack is Australia's most famous rock band

[The Rusting Trader @RustingTrader]

#Trading: If I Were to Do It All Again

Advice to my younger self starting out

1. No-one else can trade like you. You have qualia — a unique personality, background, and life experiences. Learn from others, but never become a pale imitation. Sovereignty and independent thinking are the real long-term edge.

2. Consider opening a prop firm challenge account (~$50/month). It gives live market exposure with limited personal risk. Set a max daily loss to 1/20th of the drawdown limit so you can survive a full month of bad days without extra cost. (Alternative: start with a tiny personal account using the same rules.) This forces rigorous stop-loss discipline from day one.

3. Early on, trade aggressively on short timeframes (5-min down to 1-min) to accelerate experience and muscle memory. Speed-run volume — the 10,000-hour principle is real. Later you can decide if ultra-short scalping fits your personality.

4. You will make many mistakes. That’s the entire point. Better to make them (and learn) while the stakes are tiny than when your account is in six or seven figures. Trade fast, analyse slow. Journal.

5. View mistakes and losses as interesting data, not personal failure. We are wired for trial-and-error learning (shoutout Buckminster Fuller). Short-term pain often becomes long-term compound interest in skill.

6. For a long time the market will trade you and not vice versa. Accept it. The real game is "Know Thyself." Even then, the gap between knowing and consistently doing never fully closes.

7. You will initially trade from emotion (fear, greed, hope, FOMO). That’s normal. Observe it without judgment. Emotional mastery is a lifelong practice.

8. Mechanical discipline eventually becomes background muscle memory. Master the shared basics first (risk rules, setup identification, execution).

9. What then remains is interpretation, nuance, and personal edge. The goal is to become both passive observer and active participant — in flow state, having a conversation with price (which is really a conversation with yourself).

10. Never forget: your "shadow self"/biochemistry can outrun rational thought by a huge margin (up to x46 speed of response). The mind is not the master of the body. Even seasoned system traders get wrecked by this invisible and silent killer. We’re all flawed humans. Solid systems negate this.

11. Good luck and bon voyage. The journey itself is the reward.

Not financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Most retail traders lose money

[Shake Pryzby @ShakePryzby1]

This 1 minute Dan Zanger clip changed my life when I fully HEARD its power.

"Biggest lesson was to not be in the market all the time and to trade far less than I do."

"Market may have two big moves during the year. They may last 6, 8, 10, 12 weeks... other than that they just exhaust themselves."

"Just trade out then go golf, swimming, go to cash, just have fun and enjoy and wait for everything to set up and do it again."

You ever see White Men Can't Jump?

When Woody Harrelson puts on Jimi Hendrix and Wesley Snipes says, "No no no. There's a difference between HEARING and LISTENING. White people can't HEAR Jimi, yall just LISTEN."

I have found that most traders LISTEN to Zanger but they don't HEAR him.

There is nothing more difficult than changing your day to day market behavior on a dime after months of activity giving you overtly positive feedback.

With today's follow through selling, it's clear the environment has drastically changed in a week's time.

I constantly work on my mental state and the goal is to never have PnL effect your life outside trading. Unfortunately, I am a simple Neanderthal and I am happy when I win and angry when I lose. So I tirelessly work on myself to understand when I win and how to avoid losing.

So I push push push risk when I'm hot and have unbelievable market feedback and traction. Then I completely stop when that changes.

I can only do this, because I have NOT done it so many times in my career and the emotional pitfalls of giving so much PnL back FORCED me to change the behavior.

[J Law @JLawStock]

When markets crash, the hard part usually isn’t the chart work.
It’s keeping your emotions under control.

Most traders have a system, a plan, clear rules.
But when your P&L swings tens of thousands in a day, all of that gets stress‑tested.

Fear, anxiety, regret, anger – these emotions can destroy more than the sell‑off itself.
Over the past decade, I’ve traded through multiple crashes, panics, collapses and violent corrections.

What I’ve learned is this:
Your long‑term results are not decided by how well you predict the market,
but by whether you can stay rational when the market is at its messiest.

In this post I’m sharing four mindset and strategy shifts I consider most critical.
I hope they help you make better decisions the next time the market tanks.

📎What’s the mistake you’re most likely to make in a big sell‑off?
💬Tell me in the comments

🆕 Champion’s trading method — now on IG too.
👉 Follow us: IG@jlawstock2

[The Rusting Trader @RustingTrader]

$IREN

Can be a heart breaker

Saying that, daily uptrend remains intact (just), even after last Friday's and today's price action

Double bottom & lower trend-line test... survived for now

Breach of FVG below would violate the 12-15 day inner cycle trading patterns since beginning of rally

Whether a certain X influencer is a frontman for vested interests shorting this stock remains to be seen. Time will tell I guess

All eyes on CPI print tomorrow, and a long overdue peace deal to coincide with FIFA World Cup kickoff, Summer vacation travel, and the SpaceX IPO would fit the bill perfectly

[The Rusting Trader @RustingTrader]

Listening now

[jack schwager @jackschwager]

The audio for the new MW book Market Wizards: The Next Generation has just been published. Note there is a pdf with charts that accompanies purchase of the audio. There is a new narrator for this book, Hopper Stone. I believe he did a superb job.

https://t.co/TyMJSI6eG8

[The Rusting Trader @RustingTrader]

Nothing to add

[Mark Minervini @markminervini]

The S&P 500 gained 10.7% through the first five months of 2028, putting it on pace for a 15%+ gain for a fourth year in a row. The only other time the benchmark achieved the feat was the five-year streak from 1995-99.
The longer the rally continues, the more it resembles the late-1990s bull. Both were fueled by a revolutionary technology that triggered capex spending and productivity gains.
There are key differences, including demographics, consumer sentiment, and geopolitics, just to name a few.
While the debate over how well the current market fits the 1990s analog is fascinating, the relevant question here is whether the current rally will come to an end.
Two triggers of the 2000 bear market – rising inflation and technical divergences – are in play but not at bull-breaking levels currently.
The S&P 500 roughly followed its midterm year average pattern through February before diverging during the March selloff and April-May rebound (chart). Events in the Middle East likely brought some of the typical midterm year weakness forward.
History suggests additional weakness is possible, especially late in Q3 amid election angst. As the outcome has becomes less uncertain, the market has tended to enter a year-end rally. Point-to-point, the S&P 500 has risen 4.7% in the second half of midterm years, on average, which is the final input into our S&P target.
Given the historically overbought condition of the Technology sector, a Tech-led mean-reversion pullback could align with the midterm pattern however, midterm years often end on a high note.
https://t.co/JXzFFTmMtn
https://t.co/FfBnR93ojq
https://t.co/TFyCpPHZis

[The Rusting Trader @RustingTrader]

Yep. Nowhere near irrational exuberance lvls yet

[Mark Minervini @markminervini]

he market continues pushing to new all-time highs, yet sentiment is actually becoming LESS bullish — a classic hallmark of a powerful “lockout rally” that climbs the proverbial Wall of Worry.
Despite the strength in stocks, investor optimism has not reached extreme levels, and the economy remains in a sweet spot: not overheating into runaway inflation, yet not slipping toward recession either. That combination continues to support the secular bull market backdrop. https://t.co/JXzFFTmMtn

[The Rusting Trader @RustingTrader]

Insane skills. Bigger picture- Roll on the 11th. Can't wait.

[Curiosidades Brasil @CuriosidadesBRL]

Craque de bola.

[The Rusting Trader @RustingTrader]

$SIVE $2DG (UK)

Have to thank @aleabitoreddit for alerting me to the insane Swedish news headline yesterday & the unfounded short attacks

Doubled down