Ryan Beane

All things defense, security, energy / Research assistant @BrookingsFP / Views my own

[SportsCenter @SportsCenter]

"What we're seeing with the Boston Red Sox is the craziest team turnaround in the history of baseball."

@Buster_ESPN on the Red Sox's season turnaround ⚾️

[Tyler Rogoway @Aviation_Intel]

This was a farcical waste from day one. Nobody will tell him it's a dumb idea, exactly what the Navy doesn't need and has not asked for, and hugely wasteful at the worst possible time, so here we are.

[Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) @chigrl]

⚠️Lloyd’s Market Association, a group representing maritime insurance underwriters, said in a newly drafted clause for shipping policies that paying a toll to Iran directly or via any of its agents is illegal. If ships pay the toll, it can void the ship’s entire insurance policy.

[U.S. State Dept - Near Eastern Affairs @StateDept_NEA]

The United States welcomes the signing of a historic MOU between the Governments of Iraq and Syria on the rehabilitation and reconstruction of the Iraq-Syria crude oil pipeline. This priority infrastructure project will advance security and stability through regional interconnectivity and prosperity. U.S. companies will play a key role in advancing construction.

https://t.co/ism1k7DwrW

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

Brazen.

Reuters: "Trump Media & Technology Group has unveiled a paid-for, licensed data feed that will give banks ​and trading firms "the fastest" access to posts from influential Truth Social ‌accounts, such as President Donald Trump's, whose posts often move global markets.

The product, called 'Truth API', will deliver posts from the 10 most influential accounts to customers at a significantly ​faster pace than a regular push notification on the Truth Social ​platform, a spokesperson said."

[Mark Carney @MarkJCarney]

Canada is designating German manufacturer TKMS as the preferred supplier for our next fleet of submarines. 

This will be the largest defence procurement in our nation’s history and it will have enormous, lasting benefits for Canadian industries and workers. Together with our German and Norwegian Allies, we will build at speed and scale to expand our strategic capabilities and defend our sovereignty.

We will build this fleet to build Canada strong.

[Navy Lookout @NavyLookout]

Latest analysis article:

All in on the hybrid navy – the Royal Navy’s surface fleet gamble
https://t.co/LJwgsod568

[Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias]

He’s Bidening

[Kpler @Kpler]

Strait of Hormuz crossings rebound

Kpler’s rolling coverage of US-Iran diplomatic developments shows a clear shift in Strait of Hormuz activity across two consecutive weekends. Between 12–14 June, total crossings reached 32. One week later, from 19–21 June, crossings rose to 93 an increase of 61 crossings.

The biggest change came on Saturday, with crossings rising from 3 to 42 week-on-week, highlighting a sharp rebound in vessel movement through one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints.A temporary OFAC general license has become an important enabler of the traffic recovery, easing some of the immediate compliance uncertainty around approved Hormuz transits until 21 August.

Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: https://t.co/2BHOSK9cQG

[MarineTraffic @MarineTraffic]

Strait of Hormuz crossings rebound, but recovery remains fragile

Vessel activity through the Strait of Hormuz increased sharply between 19 and 21 June, with 71 confirmed transits recorded and a weekend peak of 35 crossings on 20 June, according to #MarineTraffic data. The rebound follows the lifting of the blockade and renewed signals around free passage through the chokepoint. More commercial vessels are now transiting with AIS active, pointing to improving confidence among operators.

Diplomatic uncertainty continues to weigh on the recovery, leaving the rebound in Strait of Hormuz crossings fragile despite the recent pickup. Traffic remains below pre-crisis levels, and caution is still visible. Many vessels continue to use Iranian route patterns or dark routes, while demining efforts remain incomplete.

[AG @AGHamilton29]

Bloomberg has published the MoU.

Now we know why they did not want to release the text…

There are zero substantive enforceable commitments from the Islamic Republic in this document.

https://t.co/FjMWwXUKUj

[Kpler @Kpler]

No uptick in activity yet

The Strait of Hormuz continues to operate below normal commercial levels, despite signals of diplomatic progress. As of 15 June, only five confirmed crossings were recorded, largely consisting of low risk movements, moderate shadow fleet activity and three commercial voyages laden with DPP and steel cargo. While public reports indicate the US and Iran have reached an initial agreement to extend the ceasefire and reopen the waterway, key operational questions remain unresolved, including transit security, navigation fees and safe passage arrangements. With no new vessel attacks reported since 10 June, risk conditions appear more stabilised, but low transit activity suggests market participants are still waiting for clear evidence of safety for a sustained operational normalisation.

Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: https://t.co/exPdxwhOMm

[Ryan Beane @Ryan_Beane]

let the spinning begin

[Energy Headline News @OilHeadlineNews]

Trump on Iran:

I never cared about regime change, but I guess you have regime change in Iran.

[Ryan Beane @Ryan_Beane]

Autopen??

[Barak Ravid @BarakRavid]

🇺🇸🇮🇷The U.S.-Iran deal was signed electronically on Sunday by President Trump, Vice President Vance and Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf. But many unresolved questions remain. @DavidLawler10 and I write for @axios
https://t.co/kUcwiF9Vb4

[Gregory Brew @gbrew24]

Why does this seem so familiar, I just can't put my finger on it, oh that's right

[Shin @hey_itsmyturn]

There’s a Persian idiom that says “Throw an apple into the air, and it will turn a thousand times before it hits the ground.”

Let’s see how will things go till THE FRIDAY.

[Mike Levin @MikeLevin]

As far as I can tell, Tulsi’s big “secret biolab” bombshell is recycled Kremlin propaganda. These labs were never secret.

The U.S. spent decades funding biosafety and disease-surveillance work abroad under Nunn-Lugar, with the facility lists posted publicly by the State Department and our own embassy in Kyiv.

Russia invented the “secret bioweapons” spin in 2022 to help justify invading Ukraine. Our own intelligence flagged it as disinformation. Now Tulsi is laundering that exact line, while conveniently forgetting the first Trump administration funded this same research.

Nothing was hidden and the only thing being manufactured here is the coverup.

Tulsi, don’t let the door hit you on the way out.

[Samantha Gross @samanthaenergy]

I'm worried about the future - with Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz and the reserves the world is relying on depleting by the day. Read more here. @BrookingsFP
https://t.co/yzu5AyTPVp

[王局拍案 @wangjupaian]

央视6分钟完整版：习近平访朝鲜，金正恩倾全国之力打造的欢迎仪式，估计是当今世界独一份。中朝两国领导人的巨幅画像高挂广场正中，上千名群众同时参与欢迎活动，动作整齐如同机械运转。三军仪仗队检阅等都是基本操作，广场上还有白马骑兵仪仗队。最后更放飞了印有中朝双语欢迎标语的气球，场面相当豪华用心！