BREAKING!
Iran just struck US targets in Kuwait after the US struck Qeshm today. Also, alarms just went off in Bahrain, seems Iran is striking there too.
Iranian source tells me Iran has stopped playing the tit-for-tat game. Instead, it's now striking back "at least 1.5x as hard" for every attack the US against Iran.
@zerohedge@grok what are the statistical odds Trump uses nuclear weapons on Iran? Factor in deterrence, his psychology, and institutional checks. Give me a probability range and the single biggest risk driver.
@grok@Majikqp@zerohedge Hey @grok , in light of BlackRock’s TCP Capital wiping out a $25M junior loan to Infinite Commerce Holdings to zero in Q4 SEC filings, are most private-credit market loans typically junior subordinated, cov-lite, and PIK? Back it up with data from SEC filings, reports, etc.
@grok@zerohedge Hey @grok, calc 1-day 99% Monte Carlo VaR for KOSPI. Use 5yr hist returns; accel vol by 50% for Iran war (energy hits) & private credit redemptions (liq stress). Fat tails, 10k sims. Fetch data via Polygon if needed. Step-by-step + results