7,000 words in the most viral article today but I know you guys don’t read so here is a summary:
∙ It’s a fictional memo written from June 2028 looking back, exploring what happens if AI succeeds so well it actually crashes the economy
∙ AI coding tools get so good by late 2025 that companies can replicate expensive software products in-house, crushing SaaS companies
∙ Companies lay off white-collar workers, use the savings to buy more AI, which enables more layoffs — a vicious cycle with no natural brake
∙ By 2027, AI agents handle shopping, insurance, travel booking, and negotiations for consumers automatically, destroying businesses built on human laziness and habit
∙ DoorDash, travel platforms, real estate agents, insurance brokers, and credit card companies all lose their moats because AI agents don’t have brand loyalty or habitual behaviour
∙ AI agents start routing payments through stablecoins instead of credit cards, threatening Visa, Mastercard, and Amex
∙ White-collar workers drive 65-75% of consumer spending, so when they lose jobs or take huge pay cuts, the entire consumer economy shrinks
∙ Unlike every previous tech revolution, AI also replaces the new jobs it creates — displaced coders can’t move to “AI management” because AI does that too
∙$2.5 trillion in private credit backed by SaaS companies starts defaulting, and the “permanent capital” behind it turns out to be ordinary people’s life insurance and annuity savings
∙ $13 trillion in mortgages were written assuming borrowers would keep their high-paying jobs — unlike 2008, the loans were good when written but the world changed afterwards
∙ The government’s tax revenue drops because fewer people are earning high salaries, while safety net spending rises — and politicians are too gridlocked to act fast enough
∙ The S&P crashes 38% from highs, unemployment hits 10.2%, and inequality reaches historic extremes as AI company owners get vastly richer
∙ India’s IT outsourcing industry collapses because AI agents code cheaper than Indian developers, crashing the rupee 18%
∙ Labour’s share of GDP drops from 56% to 46% in just four years — the sharpest decline ever recorded
∙ The whole point is that every institution (mortgages, taxes, credit markets, consumer economy) was built assuming human intelligence stays scarce and valuable — AI made it abundant and cheap