Peter

Tesla investor since 2016, long term fundamentals 🇺🇸 DON’T PANIC

[Peter @SPCXTSLA]

SPACE X IPO this Friday! I've started a livestream to monitor the situation, it has real time stock info for both SPCX and TSLA, including after-hours and overnight trading data and live Robotaxi fleet data, running 24/7. https://t.co/lliT2OanBi

[Sawyer Merritt @SawyerMerritt]

If you submitted an indication of interest for @SpaceX IPO shares, you will need to confirm your indication of interest after the IPO has officially been priced, which is currently expected tomorrow evening (June 11th). Confirming an indication changes your indication to an order to buy shares at the offer price that SpaceX sets.

Keep in mind that you will have a short window of time to confirm your indication of interest. Some participating brokerages are saying that public the window may open late in the evening and close as early as 7 AM ET the following morning (June 12). Brokerages should notify you once the window opens with time-sensitive instructions on how to affirm your conditional offer. If you fail to confirm your indication of interest, you will not be allocated any IPO shares. Make sure your account is fully funded so you can purchase the shares you are allocated.

You will find out how many IPO shares you have been allocated (if any) the morning of June 12th before the market opens at 9:30 AM ET.

NOTE: Exact timing could change for any of these things, so just keep an eye out for an alerts, notifications or emails from your brokerage.

[Peter @SPCXTSLA]

@Scobleizer Yeah

[Peter @SPCXTSLA]

TSLA shareholders have to approve the merger so it’s gotta be a good deal. Merger of Equals or better for Tesla seems a logical position.

[Peter @SPCXTSLA]

The merger of equals (or better) scenario for TSLA shareholders would be a very good outcome. If you believe this is likely then it’s not logical to buy SPCX over TSLA while SPCX market cap is higher.

If the merger doesn’t happen for a while, there could be an allocation strategy that literally just deploys into SPCX or TSLA depending on which has lower market cap at each point in time. It’s possible the relative market caps will seesaw over time.

[Peter @SPCXTSLA]

“the fast, instinctive part of the mind. It watches the computer screen like a live video and takes the last five seconds of the screen recording along with the continuous stream of keyboard and mouse actions. It responds on pure reflex the way the limbic system drives automatic behaviors without conscious thought.”

This sounds familiar… Perception > Planning > Control = FSD. It’s the reason Ashok is rumoured to be leading the joint venture.

[Ryan Tanaka @RyanTanaka]

I had fun writing about the Elon-project I'm currently most excited about: MACROHARD.

I hope this article is useful info for current and prospective SpaceX investors ahead of the IPO.

Keep in mind MACROHARD directly targets the ~$23 trillion total addressable market (TAM) segment that SpaceX will capture a lot of:

[Peter @SPCXTSLA]

SPACE X IPO this Friday! I've started a livestream to monitor the situation, it has real time stock info for both SPCX and TSLA, including after-hours and overnight trading data and live Robotaxi fleet data, running 24/7. https://t.co/lliT2OanBi

[Peter @SPCXTSLA]

@pbeisel I’m guessing it will be afternoon EST before we see a ticker price but limit orders will start to fill before then

[Peter @SPCXTSLA]

@CernBasher It’s little things like this which shows how serious Tesla is about Robotaxi. This is not a startup experimenting and trying things to see if it takes off, Robotaxi is literally the future of transport around the world.

[Peter @SPCXTSLA]

The merger of equals (or better) scenario for TSLA shareholders would be a very good outcome. If you believe this is likely then it’s not logical to buy SPCX over TSLA while SPCX market cap is higher.

If the merger doesn’t happen for a while, there could be an allocation strategy that literally just deploys into SPCX or TSLA depending on which has lower market cap at each point in time. It’s possible the relative market caps will seesaw over time.

[stevenmarkryan @stevenmarkryan]

I am once again reminding you that

THIS
HAS
NOT
BEEN
DISCUSSED
ENOUGH

[Peter @SPCXTSLA]

E*TRADE just confirmed to me that SPCX allocations will be confirmed the morning of 12th. So not until IPO day.

[Rob Maurer @robmaurer]

The metric I keep coming back to for SpaceX is $/Mbps to orbit

Starlink exists because Falcon 9 dropped bandwidth deployment costs ~10x to ~$6.55/Mbps. That’s about to drop again to just $0.30/Mbps because of Starship.

A business that is doubling users annually with a 63% adjusted EBITDA margin is about to cut their biggest cost by 95%… It really seems like people don't understand the implications of this.

The math assumes a reusable Falcon 9 launch is 17 tonnes at $1,000/kg and 2,600 Gbps per launch. Starship is targeting 100 tonnes at under $185/kg and 61,000 Gbps per launch. That's $17M for 2,600 Gbps ($6.55/Mbps) verse $18.5M for 61,000 Gbps ($0.30/Mbps).

Starship's additional volume allows for larger satellites, enabling simultaneous gains on multiple cost curves. The math suggests V3 satellites are ~600 Mbps/kg vs ~150 Mbps/kg from V2 mini.

Combining the 4x improvement on satellite bandwidth density with a 5x improvement in launch gets you the 20x improvement to 30 cents per Mbps to orbit.

These are fairly conservative assumptions because launch probably comes in even lower as Starship ramps, and satellite improvements probably keep coming. At $0.10 / Mbps, $1 billion spend on launch represents 10,000 Tbps or about 15x the bandwidth of Starlink's constellation today.

$1B is 90 days of operating income for Starlink... at it's current scale...

Yeah, I really don't think people are getting this. Starlink is the internet now.

[Peter @SPCXTSLA]

1. It runs headless on a VPS, both the stream via FFMPEG and streams of data from stock APIs which populate into the video stream in real time (no OBS at all).

2. I have a web app on my phone which manages the queue of content, I can add new content, drag to change the order, add/remove music all remotely on my phone. If I decide to add different scenes I can just switch between them with a tap.

3. The ticker is pulling data from APIs and then passing into the stream via headless chromium. Could be any data - including x lists, grok/agent output.

Idea was to build something simple for creators that runs 24/7 in cloud and they can manage from their phone without the pain of OBS.

[Peter @SPCXTSLA]

SPACE X IPO this Friday! I've started a livestream to monitor the situation, it has real time stock info for both SPCX and TSLA, including after-hours and overnight trading data and live Robotaxi fleet data, running 24/7. https://t.co/lliT2OanBi

[Peter @SPCXTSLA]

@TeslaBoomerMama @TeslaBoomerPapa Yes I will, thanks

[Peter @SPCXTSLA]

@WR4NYGov This coming from Massachusetts, the state that banned individuals from buying Apple IPO in 1980. How did that work out?

[Peter @SPCXTSLA]

@wholemars She is also smarter and more productive to humanity

[Peter @SPCXTSLA]

@SawyerMerritt @Tesla Slowly then all at once

[Peter @SPCXTSLA]

@CernBasher Slowly, slowly then all at once 🦾

[Peter @SPCXTSLA]

@yunta_tsai Brilliant way to frame it