Ray

Mathematician

[Ray @SQpadicR]

@uuleeagz @_FORAB true

[Ray @SQpadicR]

@aleabitoreddit any research on high quality training data companies?

[Ray @SQpadicR]

@aleabitoreddit Can you tell us why do u pro leaderdrive but havent own any yet? Is it because u cant purchase chinese stocks or other reasons?

[Ray @SQpadicR]

最近对AI市场一直有个担忧想不通，希望有大佬能帮我解答一下。首先抛开终极问题：理解宇宙本质，理解意识起源以外，我们发展AI的目的我认为有两个
1. 是可以希望找到治疗癌症，新的常温超导材料或者可再生能源
2.是通过机器人解放生产力
目前市场买单的路径是通过llm scaling来实现AGI从而实现上述目标。scaling law是所有这些行业繁荣的依据，我们有一个无法被证伪的law给我们一个远期的AGI的希望同时llm各种能力的持续涌现让我们在到达agi的路上也在持续使用更智能的工具。
但作为个人投资者来说，真正让我担心的是中短期的市场波动，作为企业他们的资本开支和投入最终抢到的是未来几十年的主动权，他们可以在最早期溢价占据市场份额，我认为行业与市场是分开的，市场的疯狂在没有新的资金涌入的时候很可能会踩踏，但是对于企业来说市场股价对于他们的研发投入并没有很大的影响。在到达一个虽然无法被证伪的AGI的路上，我目前没有看到AI能让人们生活在一个更好的世界中的证据，比如更好的娱乐方式，更高的收入，更便宜的物品或者更便捷的交通工具。我认为这中间有一个GAP，AI产业的增速越快理想和现实的差距越大（在真正抵达AGI之前）。这个逻辑想不通我实在拿不住。

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Just some random thoughts, I do think AI is the most disruptive technology in human history.

To the level of agricultural or industrial revolution.

Since Anthropic, OpenAi, XAI, and others are racing to build superintelligence.

The amount of economic impact can't be measured if AI helps find cures for cancer or accelerates discovery for Quantum Computing.

Or if AI end up displacing the workforce, which increases profitability for companies.

The US Gov has every incentive to keep the buildout going too, as the implications from Warfare, Cybersecurity, is also immeasurable if China takes the lead.

So there's likely to be incentives and subsidies to win, even if there's not enough profit derived LLM training/inference.

As for sustainability, when you look upstream, $GOOGL is able to fund it majorly with their own cashflow, same with $AMZN, $MSFT.

More lukewarm on $META. Very iffy about $ORCL.

But I do see some bubbles forming around debt interest like $CRWV.

Maybe circular valuations that's happening with OpenAI backlog agreements or $NVDA / $AMD agreements with Neoclouds to buy their GPUs.

But as seen with $MSFT and having OpenAI be a major part of the backlog, it did correct off the information, so "bubbles" like that do pop despite the overall markets increasing.

Definitely don't see a bubble in upstream semiconductors from $LITE to Sk Hynix though since the amount of profit they get from the buildout would likely be insane to make up for capex decreasing.

OpenAI was actually my biggest fear from contagion, eg. $CRWV, $CBRS and others, but they just raised a lot.

So think it will be fine for another 1 1/2 years of capex, especially if they IPO this year.

I also don't think we'll get massive Fed tightening despite "predictions" since this will trigger a contagion since many of these players rely heavily on debt.

And although the Fed is independent, don't think Trump would have supported someone who is against his administration goals.

As for semiconductor valuations going up every day like $AMD or $MU, there's probably going to be some corrections here and there. Everything going up together is kinda unhealthy.

Can't time the capex peak but just from $AVGO and other projections, it just keeps accelerating exponentially into 2028.

Especially as everyone is starting to sign multi year agreements as well.

OpenAI contagion / hyperscaler capex decreasing / fed tightening was what I'm looking out for, and no blaring signs of any of those yet.

So I think the music will keep playing for this year at the bare minimum.

[Ray @SQpadicR]

@aleabitoreddit There is no doubt that the ultimate purpose of developing AI is that we hope it can help us find cures for cancer, discover new room-temperature superconducting materials or renewable energy solutions, or liberate productivity through robotics. But first, we need to be clear about one thing: are we hoping that AGI will directly help us solve these problems, or are we talking about agents like today’s systems, or AlphaFold-like tools, assisting humans in solving these problems?

Scaling law is the foundation behind the prosperity of all these industries. We have a law that is almost impossible to falsify, giving us long-term hope for AGI. At the same time, the continuous emergence of various LLM capabilities allows us to keep using increasingly intelligent tools on the path toward AGI.

But as an individual investor, what truly worries me is medium- and short-term market volatility. For companies, their capex and investment are ultimately about competing for control over the next few decades. They can pay a premium at the earliest stage to capture market share. I think the industry and the market are separate things. Market mania can easily turn into a stampede when there is no continuous inflow of capital. But for companies themselves, market stock prices may not have that much impact on their R&D investment.

On the road toward AGI, which currently cannot really be falsified, I still do not see clear evidence that AI is making people live in a better world today — for example through better forms of entertainment, higher income, cheaper goods, or more convenient transportation. I think there is a gap here. The faster the AI industry grows, the larger the gap becomes between the ideal and reality before we truly reach AGI.

I am not sure whether my view is correct, and I would like to hear your thoughts on this.

[Ray @SQpadicR]

@timotimo007 哈哈哈哈

[Ray @SQpadicR]

看看我今天打开x首页的鲜明对比，一遍starlink突突建设，一遍币圈三条狗还在互咬

[Ray @SQpadicR]

真tm low，看看AI圈的人在干嘛？再看看币圈的人在干嘛？行业头部的人在那狗咬狗👎👎真jb丢人 @cz_binance @heyibinance @star_okx

[Ray @SQpadicR]

@WarmBright21 @oakvale5 从来没听过英国人日常生活中用happy，全都是merry Christmas

[Ray @SQpadicR]

@chaowxyz @bitfish 同问

[Ray @SQpadicR]

@broleon @0xsakura666 算命是二次混沌

[Ray @SQpadicR]

给大家展示一下现在ai已经发展到什么程度了，纯vide code一行代码没写[呲牙]
起因是之前记录都是练完回来给gpt写报告，然后练的时候要看gpt给我写的计划也很麻烦，所以就想写个app既能记起来方便又能看起来方便，google ai studio做的，真的贼吊

[Ray @SQpadicR]

一些支撑着你走下去的瞬间2：
总能在学一个新东西的时候提出一些问题，然后发现这在当时也是很有价值的问题

[Ray @SQpadicR]

@cuihang12 哈哈哥们跟我一样，我也是三年多离职，爽的一批现在

[Ray @SQpadicR]

@CryptoPainter 5202年了居然还有人在测智商？

[Ray @SQpadicR]

@chaomeigu_com 不懂跟bn网格有甚差别

[Ray @SQpadicR]

@cuixr1314 我最近开始用windsurf

[Ray @SQpadicR]

@tig88411109 你说的这个超级周期不再是存储的超级周期了吧，你这是依托于一个科技进程的超级周期了吧，所以其实在下注的还是ai

[Ray @SQpadicR]

@SamAltman @OpenAI Ongoing bug: GPT’s answers to stats questions often include P(A | B) in Markdown tables, and the | collides with table separators, breaking the layout. Tried many workarounds; persists for months—possibly due to system prompts. Please fix.