'In life, business, art, and investing, sometimes you must risk who you are for what you can be.
The same goes for stock picking.
Inside every stock picker is a better stock picker.
Keep evolving.'
- Ian Cassel
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The most underrated skill in investing isn't finding great stocks. It's being willing to change how you find them, where to find them, and how you value them and invest in them.
This is my favorite piece I've written this year on evolving as an investor. 👇👇
Good capital allocators will buy stock in their own personal account only when they think the busines is really undervalued. This is increasingly more true the more hands-on they are, which is directly correlated with the business’s size.
You can learn a bit about stock picking from books and other people’s experiences, but they are no substitute for learning by doing. 95% of successful investing is controlling your emotions when your own money is on the line. It's why paper trading-investing is almost useless.
"That's a legitimate reason to alter the size of the bet."
A stock hasn't hit your position limit. Why might you still trim it?
Robert Hagstrom on the difference between a bigger position and a smaller margin of safety.
“You’ll make more money in the end with good ethics than bad.” – Charlie Munger
A timeless reminder from this 2001 profile:
High standards aren't just a moral choice; they are a long-term competitive advantage.
While others look for shortcuts, the greats look for character.
Take care of the downside and the upside will take care of itself.
“I don’t buy more of the ones I can make the most money on. I buy more of the ones that I can’t lose money on.”
Joel Greenblatt in Richer, Wiser, Happier.
Howard Marks: “It’s not what you buy, it’s what you pay.”
At a low enough price, a low-quality asset can be an outstanding investment. At a high enough price, a high-quality asset can be a terrible one.
Asset Quality ≠ Investment Quality
“Stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient."
- Warren Buffett
Perfect example of Nifty 50 TRI, it went from 4,500 to 36,500 in 15 years.
However, 15 years of returns came in 4 sharp 1-year bursts (41%, 21%, 57%, 23%), separated by long flat stretches of 2-3 years where nothing seemed to happen.
The current underperformance may continue for another year or so, but will lead to markets at a very cheap juncture. The next 2-3 years post that will surely lead to outperformance as seen during last 15 years.
Src: 3P Investment Managers
Chris Davis bought Costco at $28 and sold at $80. The valuation model said it was expensive.
Charlie Munger warned: "You're also probably not gonna buy as good a business when you sell it."
Davis explains the three things the model missed: store density, Kirkland and international growth.
Noruega 🇳🇴 metió unos 300 millones de dólares en su fondo en 1996. Treinta años después vale 2,3 billones. Y lo curioso es que la mayor parte no es petróleo, es rentabilidad. Interés compuesto de libro.
Hoy ese fondo tiene de media un 1,5 % de todas las empresas cotizadas del mundo. El Gobierno solo puede sacar en torno al 3 % al año, lo que rinde, sin tocar el capital. Y con eso cubre más de una cuarta parte del gasto del presupuesto...
Ahora piensa en España. Pensiones, deuda, cada año discutiendo de dónde sale el dinero. Joder, lo que nos ayudaría algo así.
Petróleo no tenemos, vale. Pero hemos tenido años buenos, privatizaciones, fondos europeos... y casi todo se ha gastado el mismo año que entró.
No hace falta ser Noruega para empezar. Hace falta una regla y respetarla durante décadas, gobierne quien gobierne. Ojalá alguien se atreva, aunque sea empezando poco a poco.
Most people want you to be content where you are because it helps justify their own stagnation. They don't want you to expand beyond them. You learn that the people that love you want to see you rise and grow. They want you to put away the four foot ladder and get the eight.